BlackBetsy
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Posts posted by BlackBetsy
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With Maggs, Jose and Koch's contracts all coming off the books that's about $20 million. Loaiza and Contreras swapping places it almost a wash financially, with Contreras earning bout an extra million or 2 over the next 2 to 3 years. We sign a SS who can get on base conisistently like Omar Vizquel to replace Jose, while we use the rest of the money to sign a front - line starter and closer.
If we had to trade one of Lee or Konerko, I'd trade Carlos. Try and get a J.D Drew type of deal for him, and fill multiple holes in this lineup. And then we can sign a Frank Catalanotto to replace Lee in LF.
With Maggs, Jose and Koch's contracts all coming off the books that's about $20 million.Ok, but there are some serious raises coming next year, too, and they took on some serious salary this season.
By my calculation, the Sox already will have $62.8 million committed to 21 players next year. ($32.75MM just to Thomas, Lee, Konerko and Garcia - $49 MM if you add in Buehrle, Contreras, and Everett)
So even though $20 million is coming "off the books", the Sox are starting the season only about $2 million lower than 2004, the way I figure it.
And as much as people talking about the new Comcast network allowing the Sox to raise payroll by $20 million, I still haven't seen this reported publicly.
If the Sox go to a $70 million payroll in the offseason, I'll be surprised.
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What does it say about the Hoover Met in Birmingham? Just curious..........Southern League
Birmingham 919
Carolina 1006
Chattanooga 1011
Greenville 1031
Huntsville 962
Jacksonville 1021
Mobile 1004
Montgomery 927
Tennessee 980
West Tennessee 1024
Jacksonville opened a new stadium last year, rating a 934, but is scoring on the high side of average this season. Montgomery looks like a pitcher's park, but take another look at what I just said about Jacksonville. There aren't any real surprises here.
The best pitcher's park in the Southern League...and one of the 10 toughest places to hit in AA/AAA ball (along with Edmonton, San Antonio, Bowie, Trenton, Norfolk, Trenton, Omaha, Portland, New Orleans...
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I was at the game with about 400-500 NIU faithful. We made a lot of noise near the end zone on the NIU sideline...was hoping that it maybe got picked up on the broadcasts. The fumble recovery in the 4th quarter was about as exciting a thing as I've ever seen. Maryland crowd was dead silent and we were screaming our lungs out.
There was a lot of anger at the end of the game with the refs decision that Cieslak was out of bounds and to not whistle the ball into play. Still, it would have been nice had Horvath simply spiked the ball and given Northern a chance at a 53 yarder or at least a set-up play to the end zone. If the Huskies had another 30 seconds, I have no doubt that they would have won this game.
I have to say, Horvath looked awful in the first half, but great in the second half. He made some great throws and really looked in command on the field. The Huskies moved the ball with ease under his direction in the second half. The Huskies are in good hands with Horvath.
That said, after looking terrific in the first half, the Huskie defense, which I thought would excel this year, couldn't stop a very inexperienced Maryland offense. Granted, they spent a lot of time on the field, but played poorly. The d-backs looked pretty weak with the exception of Hickenbottom. The Huskies will really miss Randee Drew (I can't believe he didn't catch on with the 49'ers).
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Soriano has had comparable numbers to Uribe this year, no doubt about it. But you also have to remember that in both 2002 and 2003 he hit in the .290-.300 range and he hit right around 40 homers and stole right around 35-40 bags. The strangest thing is that his numbers have suffered this year, and he is in a better hitter's park. Methinks he feasted on the crappy teams of the AL East(Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and even Toronto), and he used those short porches in both LF and RF in Yankee Stadium to his advantage. That also makes me think that he could be a perfect player for our team...a guy who beats up on mediocre pitching? Hell yes, bring him on.
Except that the reason he is performing poorly this year (in a hitter's park, for crying out loud) is that he was exposed last year in the playoffs as someone you could get out consistently by throwing the ball outside. He hasn't adjusted this year and seems pretty rockheaded. I think we've already seens the best from A. Soriano.
As for Crawford and his .329 OBP....ugh. The difference between a guy with a .370 OBP and a .329 OBP is pretty big, even if the guy with the .370 OBP doesn't steal any bases. Crawford has been caught stealing 15 times, wiping out the benefits of 30 of his stolen bases (every time you get caught stealing, you add an out and take away a base). So his 50 out of 65 success rate only adds 20 bases to Tampa Bay over the course of a year. A guy who gets on base at a .370 clip in the leadoff hole will get on base roughly 25-30 times more than Crawford over the course of a year...easily reversing any benefit caused by Crawford's stolen base edge.
And, Crawford plays left field, a position where you can afford to have a guy like Carlos Lee who has a .300/.365/.500 line...clearly more valuable than Crawford. A lineup of 9 Crawfords scores 5.6 runs per game. A lineup of Carlos Lees scores 6.9 runs per game. That's a big difference in run production.
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Uh, W-S is not a bandbox by any stretch of the imagination.
Ummmmm.....Baseball Prospectus begs to differ.... plays as the most hitter friendly park in the Carolina league.. . .it roughly plays the same offensively as US Cellular. The Ballpark Fan Guide says it's 325 down the line and 400 to straightaway center.
It's a hitters park.
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Believe it or not, Soriano's performance this year has been roughly akin to that of Uribe...about the same BA/OBP/SLG. He wouldn't make the team better.
I don't see giving up pitching for him.
Now, Aubrey Huff is a different story if he really still can play third base. He gets on base and hits for power. He'd be a huge upgrade over Crede.
Please don't get me started on Crawford and his inability to steal first base....
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Sweeney and Fields should be good to watch in Bham next year. However, I don't know how quickly they will move Fields.
I'm not sure Sweeney will get promoted next year. He'll be 20, and I could see another year in the Carolina League in W-S's bandbox to gain some confidence. I see him starting out in W-S, and if he does well, getting promoted to B'ham mid-season.
Remember, Sweeney has hit with very little power this year, but it will come. There's no rush with him.
I see less of a reason to hold Fields back. But I too would not be surprised to see him start in W-S and move up to B'ham mid-season.
If B'ham starts with Sweeney (RF), Rogowski (LF), Fields (3B), McCarthy (SP), Tracey (SP), Honel (SP), Wing (SP), Gonzalez (SS) . . . that will be one of the better prospect-laden teams in the last few years for the White Sox.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Ricks starts in W-S and moves up quickly to B'ham. Just a gut feeling.
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Sign me up for the Omar bangwagon.
Keep me off of it, and I'll see if I can shoot out the tires or put sugar in the gas tank.
Vizquel is having a great year for a shortstop with his .310/.365/.413 line...no question. But these are his prior 4 years to 2004:
2000- .287/.377/.375 (solid)
2001- .255/.323/.334 (bad)
2002- .275/.341/.418 (solid)
2003- .244/.321/.336 (bad - and injured)
Vizquel will be 38 next year- and you shouldn't rely on him being as good as this year. In fact, he's likely to hit more like 2001/2003 than he will hit like 2002/2004. I think he'll likely to be a hole in the lineup.
His current contract is $6.5 million/year. He may want something like $3-$4 million per year for 2 years. He's not worth it. The Sox would be better off either spending $8-$10 million on a star shortstop in his prime, or just going with Uribe or keeping Valentin at $2-$3 million per year.
More important is finding a shortstop in the Sox system - and I don't know if there is one in the system now.
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Put me in the "please God no" category. Although Percival is a great competitor (and thus very attractive to KW), he has been about the 4th best reliever in the Anaheim bullpen for the last 3 years. Often injured and aging, he's not worth more than a small commitment. $3 million/year? Yes. Foulke money? No.
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I'll be there w/ the alumni group at the Terps' stadium. We'll probably get killed, but it should be fun. Huskies! You F**** Huskies! (isn't that how the fight song starts?)
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In retrospect, Maggs' 2001 contract with the White Sox was really out of whack in that it had a final-year salary of $14 million. It was a recipe for disaster inasmuch as the Sox wouldn't be able to offer him less than $11.2 million to keep him.
But, in 2001, with Manny and A-Rod having just signed MONSTER contracts, it's hard to say that the Sox management wasn't right in thinking that the market for quality outfielders might be $17-$18 million in 2004. That everything has cooled down is good for MLB - but it means that there may be a lot of players who signed deals in 2000/2001 who will simply get non-tendered and go to the market because their teams can't afford to offer them the minimum 80%.
If it were me, I'd offer Maggs the $11.2 million for one year and ask him to buy the insurance on his knee. Then have a club option (or options) for another year at $12-$13 million in which the Sox would pick up the insurance. That may or may not work in the context of the CBA, but a creative solution is probably warranted.
To tell you the truth, I don't think Maggs will be back, but neither would I be surprised if something changed, something gave, and he did come back. But I'd still rather have Brad Radke (and the fences 10 ft further out) next year than Maggs.
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BMac is done for the night:
7 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K's. Got squeezed early and payed for not having command of any of his offspeed pitches in the 3rd.
Good to see that he battled after the 3rd inning, but a little worrisome to see him not be able to beat people when his breaking stuff isn't working. But hey, it's one inning of a AA game after all.
I think we are starting to get obsessive about McCarthy. But there's not a lot to be excited about this year.
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I can't wait to see how he does Wednesday night against Chattanooga, a veteran hitting team that happens to be 45-19 in the second half this year.
What's Chattanooga gonna feature, Rex?
(My calculation is that McCarthy starts today and on the 6th...so this is the second to last AA start for BMac this year).
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three actually...... I wouldn't worry about him... .............. long term.
For the same reason, I wouldn't worry about his tail-off at the end of the season. He must have gotten hit pretty hard with that flu, Rex?
I think it's 50/50 that Anderson is a June/July call up next year and shifts Rowand over to RF.
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Awesome stuff!
Question, though - which high-OBP players will be available on the free agent market this offseason?
I can't think of any, really.
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Unlike any other team in the Sox organization, the Great Falls White Sox actually know how to take a walk. . . to the tune of about 1 walk per 10 at bats.
Boomer Berry, Adam Ricks, Cook, Hansen, McCarthy all hit .270 or better with .12 or better walk rates. Kudos to them. . . and good luck in Kanny/W-S next year!
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Bristol's final game got rained out I'm guessing. Their season is over. They finish 27-38, last in their division, 11th out of 12 in the league.
Someone want to give a final assessment of the Bristol squad?
Hernandez- very good . . . and a catcher!
Tartaglia - gets on base
Castillo - OK
De Los Santos - hit well, but he does not like the base on balls
Novoa - Decent K/9, Decent K/BB
T. Murphy - Decent K/9, Decent K/BB but high ERA
Looks like everyone else didn't do that great. Decent ERAs for Perez, Polanco without good peripherals.
Looks pretty depressing.
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1. Move those damn fences back.
Yup. But I'm not sure that this is not likely to be done - the team has shown the willingness to do this in the past (especially at old Comiskey). Don't count this out. They probably have a couple of feet in both LF and RF to work with and can move back the plate a couple of feet. It makes too much sense for them not to do it if they really are focusing on pitching.
(Especially moving the RF fences out - the Twins' power over the next few years will come from Mauer and Morneau, both lefties).
2. Teach Garland how to pitch.Don't think this can be done by this organization. He needs a change of locale, a la Kip Wells.
3. Trade Borchard and another prospect for good setup guy.Sounds good in principle... but who is the other prospect and who is the setup guy? Borchard and, say, Bajenaru wouldn't get you a Mota.
4. Get a TOP-NOTCH pitcher from free agency.I'm not sure this is unlikely. IF the Sox really will have extra money to spend because of Comcast Sports Net Chicago, I think this goes right to a starter. This also might reinforce the need for #1. (I like Brad Radke as a target)
5. Tell maggs too f*** off and get and either try anderson or sweeney or get a cheap out fielder.Part 1 seems pretty likely to me. But Sweeney is definitely not ready. Anderson is a possibility (but he probably plays center while Rowand goes to right). More likely is Jurassic Carl in Right Field. Gulp.
6. Get rid of crede, and sign beltreThis is realistic only if the Sox pass up on signing a pitcher in the offseason. If they sign Beltre (Boras client), they will probably overpay.
7. Give Carthy a decent chance at makin' the club next spring.Ummm....I'd give him the same chance Buehrle had in 2000. That seems doable. But this guy was in low-A for about half this season. Don't push him and his 92 mph fastball without testing him against former ML'ers and prospects at the AAA level.
8. Don't resign Jose.This is probably done already. But his replacements (Uribe, Valdez) aren't likely to be better.
9. Use Uribe and Valdez at short.See 8, this is likely.
10. trade konerko for anything we might actually need.This seems somewhat likely. Konerko is having his best year ever, and his trade value is high. Someone might overpay for him (Yankees? Angels?)
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Remember the least we can offer Maggs is $11.2 million. Would you feel comfortable offering Maggs that much money with his future in question? Is is financially responsible to make that offer?
I wonder if that's exactly right. Maggs cannot be given an arbitration-eligible offer of less than $11.2 million (an arbitration-eligible offer gets you a draft pick). But I wonder if he couldn't be made a non-arbitration-eligible offer.
This is a CBA question that is probably pretty difficult to answer without digging into the nitty gritty of the CBA.
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I'll throw my two cents in again on Beltre........
Beltre reeks of an underachieving talented player who happens to have a career year in his free agent contract year, only to revert back to mediocrity after a big payday.
Ring ding ding ding ding....Hot Dog, we have a Wiener!
I think you are absolutely right, Rex. However, I do have one caveat - when Beltre got into the league he showed a decent amount of patience at the plate. I think that this may not be as much of a fluke as you think. He isn't as bad as he was in '03, either. Add that to the fact that he plays in a terrible hitters' park, and I think it's fair to project him out at .280/.340/.480 over the course of his contract - a .820 OPS third baseman. Not a superstar, but definitely a guy who is an asset to a contending team. His likely value will be something like $5-$6 million per year.
But with Wright at 3B for the Mets, A-Rod at 3B for the Yankees - his biggest $$ opportunity is gone. Look for him to stay in LA as he is overpaid for his free agent season. (Or maybe goes to SF or Seattle as they retool?)
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Not trying to be an ass, but I have done so many times already..... search through some recent threads for your answer.
Not trying to be an ass myself, Rex, but we had a pretty good Spidale thread last week and it got eliminated by the "accidental"
deletion of everything since August 3...including my existence (I had made it all the way to Great Falls! 
)Anyway, Jeremy, the consensus was that Spidale barely has the arm to play leftfield, had a breakout year this year, is average age for the Southern League (22), was the Barons' MVP this year, and generally gets on base and is a team player.
We'll see him and Brian Anderson in Charlotte next year.
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Arggh, I'd hate to see WSI-style moderation here. They are really ridiculous over there.
If you're offended by what people post about you in an online forum...you should maybe consider getting thicker skin.
By the way, I generally turn off avatars and signatures on this site. A lot of them are cool (the blinking OEO Magglio is really sweet), some are annoying after a while, and the political ones are off putting. I wouldn't want my replies to someone about White Sox stuff be affected by my political philosophy. Thankfully, I can't remember who is pro-Kerry/anti-Bush and who is pro-Bush/anti-Kerry, and I'm happy with that.
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So wait a minute here. Sox stand to lose:
That means up to 45 million will be freed up. By some accounts, 2005 payroll will be at least 10M higher than the 2004 one, which sits near 70M mark. (2004 payroll is 16M higher than the 2003 one for the record.)
So logically, Sox could have up to 55 million to spend on FA, extensions and arbitration awards.
Not quite sure all your math is right. I think with the Roser as it's currently organized, the Sox already have $62 million tied up for next year:
2005
1 Freddy Garcia $8,000
2 Mark Buerhle $5,570
3 Carlos Lee $8,000
4 Paul Konerko $8,750
5 Frank Thomas $8,000
6 Jose Contreras $6,000
7 Damaso Marte $1,250
8 Juan Uribe $1,500 (est. arb. award)
9 Willie Harris $350
10 Aaron Rowand $1,500 (est. arb award)
12 Joe Crede $400
13 Ben Davis $1,000 (est. arb award)
14 Ross Gload $350
15 Shingo Takatsu $2,500
16 Jon Garland $3,400 (est. arb award)
17 Jon Adkins $350
18 Timo Perez $1,000 (est. arb award)
19 Jamie Burke $350
20 Neil Cotts $350
21 Carl Everett $4,000
That's only about $3-$4 million less than this year's starting payroll. Assuming the Sox can get value for Konerko or Lee, you are talking about the Sox having maybe $10-$11 million in payroll room going into next year. And with that $11 million, you have to fill the Ordonez gap, the Konerko/Lee gap, and the starting rotation gap. That's too much to overcome in the FA market, IMHO.
Even if payroll goes up to $70 million, that's still only $16-$17 million to fills those holes.
I wouldn't expect a payroll in excess of $70 million.
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I think Radke should be the Sox's #1 FA target...and I just blogged it (click on my signature).
Bottom line - signing Radke away from the Twinkies makes the Sox better and the Twinkies worse at the same time. It's double the normal value of a free agent signing.
(In addition, the Twins simply don't have a decent starting prospect ready next year).
Kris Honel
in FutureSox Board
Posted