I am a Tigers fan who does not agree with the scout's comment. I think the Sox have a better/more proven rotation. The Tigers' rotation has upside, but also many question marks (even extending to whether a pitcher like Jeremy Bonderman can come back from his Thoracic Outlet Compression surgery.)
QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Feb 14, 2010 -> 02:17 PM)
Unless Porcello drastically improves his peripherals the Tigers are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.
I'm not sure he does have to have an elite strike out rate. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher: 54% ground balls last season. As long as he keeps the ball on the ground at that rate, he can continue to have success, imo.
But I think he will strike out more batters next year for the simple fact that he will learn how to better utilize his arsenal. He pitched last season as a 20-year-old rookie with one year of experience in professional baseball (in A ball). The fact that he succeeded/held his own at that age and level of experience is amazing. And I saw him make adjustments towards the end of last season. For example, he had eight strike outs in the play-in game in Minnesota because he better utilized his 4-seam fastball.
Overrated according to what measure? He's one of the five best pitchers in the AL. Last season, he was 2nd in baseball in pitcher WAR, 2nd in the AL in FIP, 4th in xFIP, had more strike outs than anyone in the AL since Pedro in his filthy 2000 season.
Mark Prior and Kerry Wood blew their arms out because they had bad mechanics. Verlander does not have bad mechanics. His workload is definitely a concern, but if he stays healthy, I very much doubt he will have a year like 2008. Everything would have to go wrong for him again: bad arm slot that caused him to lose velocity and command, a pitching coach who told him to pitch like a finesse pitcher, a bad bullpen that let an unusually high number of inherited runners to score, etc.
But Jackson overachieved last season. He pitched more like 4.50 ERA pitcher than a 3.60 ERA pitcher. It was doubtful he could have repeated last season's success, hence selling high on him.
