DO THE WHITE SOX STILL HAVE A SHOT? A BREAKDOWN OF THE PLAYOFF RACE.
Current Al Central Standings:
(White Sox and Tigers Only)
Detroit: 84-72 - G.B.
Chicago: 82-74 2 G.B.
Every baseball fan dreams of a tight division race. They imagine the nail-biting, the scoreboard watching, the anticipation, and the mounting suspense. The idea of everything coming down to the wire seems attractive. For White Sox fans the thought of another historic blackout game (The tiebreaker in 2008) is at the top of everyone's list. At the time, all of these factors, describe the perfect baseball scenario. Perfect, until you're actually living it, and you come to realize that it's not 2008, and game 163 isn't going to be a blackout game but rather an away game with Verlander as the probable starter. Suddenly, this dream has become a nightmare. In some ways, the close race is exciting but as the daunting idea of not making the playoffs continues to come into focus the worry of a detrimental collapse comes into finer focus and certainly outways any sort of love for the suspense. There will be enough of that in the postseason.
Four weeks ago, it was about records. Would the White Sox be able to reach the top-tier of the American League, sporting a comparable record to the Rangers and the Yankees. Would they be able to win home field-advantage for the first and possibly even second round. These questions have quickly become irrelevant, because they are no longer legitament questions. Now, it isn't about records. The record, compared to any other team aside from Detroit doesn't matter. New numbers have come into play, numbers like the magic number, and the amount of games back or ahead. The wild card is an outdated term. A term that no longer exists in the playoff dictionary for the White Sox.
The idea of the White Sox making the playoffs is not unrealistic. Sitting at two games back behind Detroit they are in a workable position, but the margin for errors depletes with every game. Tomorrow, it is imperative that they eliminate their deficit by a game. They no longer control their own destiny, and due to this Sox fans will become skilled scoreboard watchers during the next week, and so will the players. If the White Sox can move with-in on e game of the division tomorrow, then they will be one step closer to being in the driver's seat. From there it will be a combination of both White Sox performance and Detroit performance.
SCENARIOS:
If either team is up by two games after Sunday, then the division will most likely be decided on Monday or Tuesday.
If either team is up by three after Sunday, then one will already have clinched a playoff berth, meaning they will have already guaranteed at least a tie.
If both teams are tied after Sunday, then the division could fluctuate by one game back and forth to result in a solidified winner on Wednesday.
If both teams are tied on Wednesday, then there would be a decent chance of a tiebreaker on Thursday.
TOMORROW'S GAME PIVOTAL:
Friday, September 28th: White Sox vs. Rays at home (7:10 P.M. C.T. Start)
Tomorrow's game is undoubtedly the most important game of the season. Although, there is still time left, it will be the last chance for a turning point. It will be the last chance to shift the momentum, because if they fall back to three games out of first place with five games left to play, Detroit has an almost insurmountable upperhand.
Best scenarios according to games back per day.
After Friday's game:
Best: 1 game back.
Worst: 3 games back.
Most Probable: 1 game back.
After Saturday's game:
Best: Tied.
Worst: 4 games back.
Most Probable: 1 game back.
After Sunday's game:
Best: 1 game up.
Worst:5 games back. (Out of Playoffs)
Most Probable: 1 game back or tied.
After Monday's game:
Best: 2 games up. (Clinch Playoff Berth)
Worst: 6 games back. (Out of Playoffs)
Most Probable: 1 game back or tied.
After Tuesday's game:
Best: 3 games up. (Clinch Division)
Worst: 7 games back. (Out of playoffs)
Most Probable: 1 game up or tied.
After Wednesday's game:
Best: 4 games up.
Worst: 8 games back. (Out of playoffs)
Most Probable: Tied or 1 game up.
The White Sox would have to go 0-6 and Detroit would have to go 6-0 for the worst scenario to occur.
The White Sox would have to go 6-0 and Detroit would have to go 0-6 for the best scenario to occur.
The White Sox would have to go 4-2 and Detroit would have to go 2-4 to force a tie.
The White Sox would have to go 4-2 and Detroit would have to go 1-5 to clinch the division by one.
The negatives of the current White Sox:
The starting pitching has been sub-par and the bullpen has been extremely unstable, surrendering late-inning runs.
Most daunting however has been the White Sox's inability to comeback in close games, or hold close leads.
The inability to come back in close games has been a direct result of flawed production and the stranding of base runners. Capitalizing with runners in scoring position has been their greatest struggle and the main reason they have not already clinched the division. This needs to change in order for them to make a final run at the post-season.
The positives of the current White Sox:
The White Sox are all around a talented team, and this talent has been exhibited throughout the season.
They have a dangerous line-up when they are able to hit base-hits combined with home runs, making them a dynamic line-up to work around.
They are actually able to get on base quite a bit.
Their bull-pen has strength and they have quality starting pitching.
They are overall post-season caliber, they have just been playing like a below .500 team in the last month.
Circumstantial Negatives:
Detroit has an easier schedule, playing Minnesota and then Kansas City, while the White Sox have to take on a talented team, the Tampa Bay Rays.
The White Sox play their final three games on the road.
The White Sox are currently down two-games in the division.
Circumstantial Positives:
The White Sox have three home games left, while Detroit has none.
The White Sox have been slumping, and this slump most likely will not carry out for the rest of the season.
They have been streaky the last month, and they are due to win some ball games.
The White Sox have historically been able to beat Cleveland. A sweep is not out of the question.
Attendance footnote: The greatest thing about home-field advantage is that aside from batting last, the momentum created by the fans is a morale booster for the team. Despite an extremely close division race, U.S. Cellular field has not been seeming with fans. The upper deck is hardly occupied and the outfield is also not meeting what should be the standard. Although ticket prices are expensive, the White Sox need to see that fans are still supporting them. If there is anytime to attend a game it is this weekend.
Posed Questions: I'd appreciate your response.
Why have the White Sox been unable to produce with runners in scoring position?
Why has attendance been below where it should be during these last few weeks of playoff contention?
REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Saturday, September 29th: White Sox vs. Rays at home (3:05 P.M. C.T. Start)
Probables: Rays (Moore 10-11 3.92 ERA) White Sox (Sale 17-7 2.86 ERA)
Sunday, September 30th: White Sox vs. Rays at home (1:10 P.M. C.T. Start)
Probables: TBD
Monday, October 1st: White Sox vs. Indians away (6:05 P.M. C.T. Start)
Probables: TBD
Tuesday, October2nd: White Sox vs. Indians away (6:05 P.M. C.T. Start)
Probables: TBD
Wednesday, October 3rd: White Sox vs. Indians away (6:05 P.M. C.T. Start)
Probables: TBD
