VAfan
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Posts posted by VAfan
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He's gone from a .307 OBP with Cleveland to a .409 OBP with the Sox in his first 10 games, drawing 8 walks in that span.
How does a guy up his walks and on base that quickly? Did he feel like no one could drive him in in Cleveland, so he started swinging for the long ball and chasing pitches out of the zone?
His OPS+ went from 97 to 138. Thats way above any year in his career.
When you compare it to who the Sox were playing at 2B after Madrigal got hurt, this has been a major upgrade to the lineup. You can see why LaRussa has him hitting 2nd quite a bit.
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On 8/8/2021 at 5:47 PM, South Side Hit Men said:
They have six OFers at this point (since they don’t play Lamb in the infield after 3 attempts this season). It’s not about fretting about an individual game. Leury started three OF games this month, Sheets once.
Leury was needed to play near everyday when Madrigal was out, and before when 3-4 OFers were out. Made complete sense. He is valuable for the ability to do that WHEN he is needed.
Had no issue with Leury at SS today before Tony switched back, or resting Cesar or Yoan. That’s what he’s there or should be there for.
Just don’t need to continue to sit young outfielders when your roster is now one away from fully healthy, and continue to start Leury in the OF on a regular or even semi regular basis. When Robert returns, and they likely send down Sheets (or release Lamb), he should never start in the OF beyond future additional injuries. He should back up 2B, SS and 3B, or be a late defensive replacement (infield or outfield)
LF - Eloy / Andrew
CF - Luis / Adam
RF - Adam / Brian / Andrew / Lamb or Sheets
I agree that Leury Garcia plays more than I'd like, and I hope he never starts a postseason game. But he hasn't been worthless offensively. He's 4th on the team in RBI with 40, which is ahead of Vaughn's 37 despite slightly fewer PAs. Until recently, he was ahead of Moncada, but is now 8 behind in almost 100 fewer PAs. He's hit much better on the road than at home -- .710 OPS, or slightly above league average. He had a good June (league average) and a very good July (115 OPS+), but has gone into a funk recently. But so did Tim Anderson over the last 2 weeks until his breakout game against the Cubs.
As for whether he'll play the outfield again this year, I would put him behind Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn, Engel and Goodwin too, but with a 10-1/2 game lead, I wouldn't object to resting any of those guys on a given day. Garcia's job is to help us make it to the postseason in optimal health and shape.
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On 7/26/2021 at 3:01 AM, VAfan said:
I haven't posted much of anything on the trade speculation front, but I thought I would open post devoted to a "wish list". The overall trade thread touches on this topic, but isn't devoted to it, and I didn't see another post that was. If the moderators think this is redundant, they can move it.
Here's my wish list.
1. Craig Kimbrel. I think the Brewers series has exposed the biggest Sox weakness against talented teams that can hold down the Sox offense -- bullpen depth. Everyone talks about adding a relief pitcher, but I don't think most set their sights high enough. I think the Sox need to look for a shut down bullpen arm to bridge the gap between our starters and Hendriks. You could make the argument that Kimbrel is even better than Hendriks this season, but I expect he'd play second fiddle because Hendriks is signed for longer and has been the man.
Kimbrel is one of the few players being discussed who could make a real difference. Hendriks is reliable, but has blown 4 saves and been victimized on occasion by the HR. Crochet could be nasty, but sometimes can't find the strike zone. Kopech seems dominant, but struggled tonight with control. Bummer is not consistent or reliable at all because you don't know from outing to outing if he can control his vicious slider. Heuer has been hit hard too many times to be reliable. Ditto for the rest.
The Nationals proved you don't need a deep pen to win a World Series, but you do need one that does the job. A bullpen of Hendriks, Kimbrel, Kopech, and Crochet, with potential support from Dylan Cease might be enough. But we'd need to see how those guys are pitching at the end of September to know.
Kimbrel could give the Sox the kind of edge Kansas City rode to its two World Series appearances and one win. The Sox are not going to get more than 6 innings out of their top 3 starters in the postseason. Right now they might be able to cover a couple innings. They need to be able to cover 3 innings consistently.
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What would I be willing to give up? First off, I don't think Kimbrel will get the haul some people think. That's because even though he's signed for another year, it's for $16M. He may not be overpriced, but he's not a bargain. If the Sox are willing to take on the salary (a big IF), it should cost them less.
Here's what I'd be willing to give up. 1. Jake Burger. 2. Jonathan Stiever or Jimmy Lambert. 3. A player to be named. I think Burger will be a stud hitter, but he's blocked at all his potential positions with the Sox and is 25. Stiever and Lambert are starting pitchers. I don't think they'll ever really make it in the Sox rotation, which is why I'd give them up. As for the player to be named, it could be anyone. Likely a lower level player who is a bit of a crap shoot.
Some may say this isn't enough. Some may say it's too much. I don't really want the Sox to trade Burger, and have written more than one post about him. But to get Kimbrel, the Sox would need to give up someone who is major league ready and under long term control.
2. Marcus Semien. For all those pining for Escobar or Frazier, Semien would be a much bigger prize.
Why would Toronto be willing to give him up? For the same reason the Yankees were willing to trade Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. He'll be a free agent and they can re-sign him next year, which would be the same thing as extending him. The Jays are 9-1/2 games out, and they aren't winning the AL East, and several teams are ahead of them for the Wild Card spots. Why not cash in Semien now and bring him back for a better run at it next year?
Semien could be a real offensive difference maker on the Sox. He would be leading the team in HRs and OPS by a wide margin. He's actually hitting RHP better than LHP.
You could put him at the top of the lineup behind Tim Anderson, move Moncada into the 3 hole where had the most ABs and hit the best this year. That would make Abreu 4th, Jimenez 5th, Grandal 6th, Vaughn and Robert 7th and 8th (depending on how Robert hits when he returns), and Engel/Goodwin 9th.
Because the Sox are unlikely to retain Semien after this year, this would be the true go for it move.
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What would I be willing to give up? I think the Blue Jays need pitching. I also think with Semien's $18M contract, it wouldn't require a fortune in players if the Sox were willing to assume the rest of the contract.
I'd be looking at trading lower bullpen arms, but guys who have had time in the major leagues -- Matt Foster, Marshall, Fry, Ruiz, Burr. What about Heuer? Off of last season, I wouldn't have wanted to trade him. But he's become so unreliable this year. Yet he's young enough and has enough potential upside to be a closer that he could be the key player in a deal. Toronto is built to contend now, so they will want guys who are major league ready. Heuer is controllable, so he should have plenty of value.
I'd offer 1. Heuer, 2. Stiever or Lambert -- whichever one didn't go to the Cubs for Kimbrel, 3. A throw in.
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So that's my wish list -- Kimbrel and Semien. I'd be shocked if either of these things happened, but I think the Sox need to go for it this year, and Kimbrel would be a key addition for next year as well.
In the offseason, the Sox could try to to re-sign Rodon and then trade Keuchel, called mostly to unload his contract, but also to help restock.
Who is on your wish list for the Sox?
Just want to note that I called this one! If you read some articles, Kimbrel was thought by Hahn and Williams as a true difference maker. I agree. I also had Heuer moving. And I had the Sox addressing the bullpen and second base. A lot of people called that, but how many others called Kimbrel?
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I haven't posted much of anything on the trade speculation front, but I thought I would open post devoted to a "wish list". The overall trade thread touches on this topic, but isn't devoted to it, and I didn't see another post that was. If the moderators think this is redundant, they can move it.
Here's my wish list.
1. Craig Kimbrel. I think the Brewers series has exposed the biggest Sox weakness against talented teams that can hold down the Sox offense -- bullpen depth. Everyone talks about adding a relief pitcher, but I don't think most set their sights high enough. I think the Sox need to look for a shut down bullpen arm to bridge the gap between our starters and Hendriks. You could make the argument that Kimbrel is even better than Hendriks this season, but I expect he'd play second fiddle because Hendriks is signed for longer and has been the man.
Kimbrel is one of the few players being discussed who could make a real difference. Hendriks is reliable, but has blown 4 saves and been victimized on occasion by the HR. Crochet could be nasty, but sometimes can't find the strike zone. Kopech seems dominant, but struggled tonight with control. Bummer is not consistent or reliable at all because you don't know from outing to outing if he can control his vicious slider. Heuer has been hit hard too many times to be reliable. Ditto for the rest.
The Nationals proved you don't need a deep pen to win a World Series, but you do need one that does the job. A bullpen of Hendriks, Kimbrel, Kopech, and Crochet, with potential support from Dylan Cease might be enough. But we'd need to see how those guys are pitching at the end of September to know.
Kimbrel could give the Sox the kind of edge Kansas City rode to its two World Series appearances and one win. The Sox are not going to get more than 6 innings out of their top 3 starters in the postseason. Right now they might be able to cover a couple innings. They need to be able to cover 3 innings consistently.
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What would I be willing to give up? First off, I don't think Kimbrel will get the haul some people think. That's because even though he's signed for another year, it's for $16M. He may not be overpriced, but he's not a bargain. If the Sox are willing to take on the salary (a big IF), it should cost them less.
Here's what I'd be willing to give up. 1. Jake Burger. 2. Jonathan Stiever or Jimmy Lambert. 3. A player to be named. I think Burger will be a stud hitter, but he's blocked at all his potential positions with the Sox and is 25. Stiever and Lambert are starting pitchers. I don't think they'll ever really make it in the Sox rotation, which is why I'd give them up. As for the player to be named, it could be anyone. Likely a lower level player who is a bit of a crap shoot.
Some may say this isn't enough. Some may say it's too much. I don't really want the Sox to trade Burger, and have written more than one post about him. But to get Kimbrel, the Sox would need to give up someone who is major league ready and under long term control.
2. Marcus Semien. For all those pining for Escobar or Frazier, Semien would be a much bigger prize.
Why would Toronto be willing to give him up? For the same reason the Yankees were willing to trade Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. He'll be a free agent and they can re-sign him next year, which would be the same thing as extending him. The Jays are 9-1/2 games out, and they aren't winning the AL East, and several teams are ahead of them for the Wild Card spots. Why not cash in Semien now and bring him back for a better run at it next year?
Semien could be a real offensive difference maker on the Sox. He would be leading the team in HRs and OPS by a wide margin. He's actually hitting RHP better than LHP.
You could put him at the top of the lineup behind Tim Anderson, move Moncada into the 3 hole where had the most ABs and hit the best this year. That would make Abreu 4th, Jimenez 5th, Grandal 6th, Vaughn and Robert 7th and 8th (depending on how Robert hits when he returns), and Engel/Goodwin 9th.
Because the Sox are unlikely to retain Semien after this year, this would be the true go for it move.
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What would I be willing to give up? I think the Blue Jays need pitching. I also think with Semien's $18M contract, it wouldn't require a fortune in players if the Sox were willing to assume the rest of the contract.
I'd be looking at trading lower bullpen arms, but guys who have had time in the major leagues -- Matt Foster, Marshall, Fry, Ruiz, Burr. What about Heuer? Off of last season, I wouldn't have wanted to trade him. But he's become so unreliable this year. Yet he's young enough and has enough potential upside to be a closer that he could be the key player in a deal. Toronto is built to contend now, so they will want guys who are major league ready. Heuer is controllable, so he should have plenty of value.
I'd offer 1. Heuer, 2. Stiever or Lambert -- whichever one didn't go to the Cubs for Kimbrel, 3. A throw in.
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So that's my wish list -- Kimbrel and Semien. I'd be shocked if either of these things happened, but I think the Sox need to go for it this year, and Kimbrel would be a key addition for next year as well.
In the offseason, the Sox could try to to re-sign Rodon and then trade Keuchel, mostly to unload his contract, but also to help restock.
Who is on your wish list for the Sox?
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30 minutes ago, chetkincaid said:
I hope another team trades for Yermin and he gets a chance to reset his career. Hopefully he'll go to a team with a manager that appreciates his talents and has his back. Maybe a manager who won't talk about "spanking" him like he's some kind of a fucking child...
TLR gave Yermin a ton of rope this year.
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8 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:
“ You cannot take percentages of what you think -- how you would script it -- and take them into a game. You have to watch the game and see. Do you smell a close game? Do you smell a crooked-number game?”
When I “smell” a close game under Tony, I smell a loss.
Games decided by 2 + runs: 48-25 .658
Games decided by 1 run: 10-12 .455
”When you play for one run, that’s usually all you get. I have nothing against the bunt in its place, but most of the time, that place is in the bottom of a long forgotten closet.”
- Earl Weaver
The 2005 White Sox, who won the World Series, had 53 sacrifice bunts, and were 35-19 in one-run games. The 2021 White Sox, after more than half the season has been played, have had 18 sacrifice bunts, and are 10-12 in 1 run games.
That alone casts serious doubt on your attempt to correlate bunt attempts with one-run losses.
Also, Tony LaRussa is having the Sox bunt at the next to lowest rate of his long managerial career - 1.8%. Only the 1998 St Louis Cardinals bunted less -- 1.7%.
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I also found this 2007 article from Bill James on one-run games that I find kind of interesting.
QuoteThe 50 teams which did well in one-run games had more stolen bases (96-92 on average), more sacrifice bunts (71-67), more complete games (35-31), more saves (34-30), issued fewer walks (513-531), drew more walks (526-520) and had a better ERA (3.77 to 3.91).
The 50 teams which did poorly in one-run games hit more home runs (127-117), scored more runs (674-658), had a higher slugging percentage (.386-.380), a lower on-base percentage (.325-.323), used more relief pitchers (278-257), threw more wild pitches (47-44) and had more balks (8-7). They were more likely to play in hitter’s parks (park factors 100.3 vs. 98.5).
And there's this excerpt at the end.
QuoteCan one infer anything about a manager from his one-run record?
I would have guessed, going into this study, that the answer to that might be a flat “no”, or, at least, an equivocal “no” (we can find no evidence within our study that playing well in one-run games is anything but a random occurrence, etc., etc., yada yada yada, bullshit, snore.) I can’t give you that answer, for two reasons:
1) There does seem to be some persistent tendency of teams to play poorly in one-run games, and
2) Teams which play well in one-run games do seem to have some identifiable characteristics, to a small degree.
But I will say this: that I would be careful about drawing any such inferences. Tony Muser is -15 games in one-run decisions. I can’t say that this IS just coincindence—but it certainly could be. It’s not an overwhelming number, in and of itself.
Rany began this discussion with a comment about Bobby Cox’ relatively poor record in one-run games. Well, from 1990 through 2001 the Atlanta Braves scored 8,836 runs, allowed 7,409. This is a ratio of 1.19 to 1. In one-run games they have gone 297-256, a ratio of 1.16 to 1.
The Braves have missed their expected won-lost record in one-run games, over the ten years, by 2.1 wins. Obviously, no conclusion of any kind can be drawn from such an occurrence. One-run games involve a huge amount of luck. This may be the only safe statement that can be made about them.
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21 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:
@VAfan you can't post entire articles. It needs to be a blurb and a link or it will be deleted.
I wondered, but figured the moderators would sort it out. No problem with them cutting it. I think it's a terrible article.
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I don't get the love for Merrifield. He 32+ and his offensive numbers have declined every year since his peak year in 2018 to where he's now below league average. Would I take him over Leury Garcia? Yes. But I wouldn't give up much to get him.
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Here's the link to the article. (I happen to think the article is completely off the mark -- another whack job by an author looking for controversy where it doesn't exist, i.e., in the Sox dugout -- but I'm sure many here will agree with it.)
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Just wanted to refresh this after the Lynn signing. He's now under control for 3 more years.
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If you look at Spotrac, you can see who the Sox have under contractual control over the next several years.
Starting Lineup
- SS Tim Anderson - 2021, 22, 23, 24
- 3B Yoan Moncada - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- 1B Jose Abreu - 21, 22
- DH/LF Eloy Jimenez - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- C Yasmani Grandal - 21, 22, 23
- LF/DH/1B - Andrew Vaughn - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- CF Luis Robert - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27
-RF Adam Eaton - 21, 22Adam Engel, 21, 22, 23 --
- 2B Nick Madrigal - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26Bench
- Utility Leury Garcia - 21
- C Zack Collins - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
-OF Adam Engel - 21, 22, 23
- OF Brian Goodwin 21, 22
- Extra bench player??? There could be room for another player here.
- Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets?Starting pitchers
- Lucas Giolito - 21, 22, 23
- Dallas Keuchel - 21, 22, 23
- Lance Lynn - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Dylan Cease - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Carlos Rodon - 21
- Reynaldo Lopez - 21, 22, 23Bullpen
- Liam Hendriks - 21, 22, 23, 24
- Aaron Bummer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Evan Marshall - 21, 22
- Matt Foster - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Cody Heuer - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Jace Fry - 21, 22, 23
- Jimmy Cordero - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- Zack Burdi -, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26Transition Pitcher
- Garrett Crochet - 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
- Michael Kopech - 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 262021 Payroll allocation - $123M
2022 Payroll - $116M - no arb (not updated)
2023 Payroll - $86M - 10 arb (not updated)
2024 Payroll - $85M - 7 arb (not updated)************
Assuming they exercise options:
In 2022, they could lose: Garcia, Rodon
In 2023, they could lose: Abreu, Eaton, Marshall
In 2024, they could lose: Grandal, Engel, Giolito, Keuchel, Lopez, Fry****************
This looks like an incredibly talented team given what we've learned since I wrote this before the season.
I think most of us hope that the Sox re-sign Carlos Rodon. If they were able to do that, they should try to unload Keuchel's contract even if they received next to nothing in return. That would give the Sox the best starting staff in baseball for at least the next 2 seasons to make a run at the World Series.
The bullpen would need some shoring up.
But the lineup should be terrific if it can stay healthy. Right field is the only weakness, but I think the Sox can get by with a combo of Adam Engel and Brian Goodwin, since they will have been forced to spend their money elsewhere.
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I'm not surprised this topic took a lot of flak, but I stand by it. Burger hit a monster HR tonight, along with a double in the gap, while Andrew Vaughn had a poor night against the same pitchers. If I were the Sox, i would not be trading Jake Burger on the cheap, which is all we'd get for him in trade at this point. He might be every bit the hitter that Vaughn is, or he might not be. But I'd want to find out more.
Having Moncada volunteer to play some games at 2B would allow TLR more lineup flexibility, and we'd finally get to see less of Leury Garcia, who is supposed to be a UTILITY player, not an everyday one. It would allow the Sox to focus their attention on shoring up the weakest part of the team at the deadline, which is the BULLPEN.
The Sox offense will be fine when Eloy, Robert, and Grandal return. RF will be OK with Engel/Goodwin/Sheets/Lamb, and 2B would be fine with Moncada/Garcia with Moncada/Burger at 3B.
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When Eloy returns, he's going to be the best of these four, so you have to play him. He'll likely DH mostly. I'm hoping/expecting he'll hit behind Abreu like he did last year.
Vaughn is most likely to continue playing LF, and has the edge over the other two.
Burger may be the second best hitter in this group -- I could see him hitting as well or better than Vaughn, but is not likely to have the power potential of Jimenez. His challenge is he's a 3B with no OF experience. I think Moncada should volunteer to play 2B this year, at least some of the time, so Burger's bat can get in the lineup. Kris Bryant has played 5 positions for the Cubs, so I don't see why Moncada can't play a position where he played 200 games.
Sheets is a nice lefty power hitter, which we don't have enough of, but tonight the Fox announcers said he's yet to hit a curve ball this year. He doesn't play a good enough OF to push out Goodwin. So he's the mostly likely to be squeezed.
Overall, it's a good problem to have more good hitters than you have places to play them.
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Sox need to find a place for Jake Burger to keep playing.
You have to like Vaughn, but tonight Burger was much better, as Vaughn had a frustrating night. I think if Burger hadn't been hurt, it's possible we might never had drafted Vaughn. Although I will say the injuries forced Burger to slim down and it seems to have helped him play better.
I wrote one of those "move Moncada to 2B" posts, and I stand by it. Burger is a much better hitter than Leury Garcia, who would see his playing time cut back by this move. Garcia has hit well recently, and tonight had an epic AB where he drew a walk before Sheets drove him home with a 2-run blast. But Garcia has no power to his game, while Burger does. The Sox have been relying on a lower power production this year, offsetting it with a high OBP. But they will be a better team if they can bring the power back.
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3 hours ago, Heads22 said:
I wrote a piece before the season comparing Lance Lynn and Trevor Bauer. Here's the link. And here was the post.
QuoteHere are two stat lines using Baseball References averages over 162 games.
14 W - 10 L, 3.57 ERA, 196 IP, 73 BB, 194 K, 116 ERA+, 3.62 FIP, 2.67 K/BB ratio, 24.2 career WAR in 9 seasons
13 W - 11 L, 3.90 ERA, 202 IP, 77 BB, 217 K, 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio, 17.5 career WAR in 9 seasons.
Which of these two stat lines would you rather have?
Which one is Lance Lynn and which one is Trevor Bauer?
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Lance Lynn has the first line. Now, he's older, and will turn 34 in May. Bauer will turn 30 in January. But he's also a whole lot cheaper.
And if you think that Bauer is just going to repeat his Cy Young numbers on a full season when having to play outside the AL/NL Central, then look at Bauer's 2019 season, which was split between Cleveland and Cincy (with no DH):
11-13, 4.48 ERA, 213 innings, 83 BB, 253 K, 106 ERA+, 4.34 FIP, 3.09 K/BB ratio, 1.1 WAR.
Here's Lance Lynn's 2019 season
16-11, 3.67 ERA, 208.1 innings, 59 BB, 256 Ks, 141 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 4.17 K/BB ratio, 7.5 WAR.
So, why is everyone clamoring for Bauer over Lynn?
Younger, yes. Cheaper, no. Better pitcher, maybe. More reliable, no.
The Sox have Lance Lynn for one year at $8M. They can probably extend him for another two years for Keuchel money, or less. If so, they would spend less for three years of Lynn than Bauer will likely get over the next two years, and may end up with the better pitcher.
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Even before the All-Star game, I added a post on my thread about Vaughn, Burger, Sheets and Mercedes that the Sox should move Moncada to 2B to open up 3B for Jake Burger's bat. I asked if it was an insane idea, but now I think more and more that it's the right move.
But during the All-Star game, when they interviewed Kris Bryant and showed how many games he'd played at 5 different positions, I thought that an All-Star player can in fact move around successfully.
Yoan Moncada has played 200 games at 2B. He's plenty capable of moving over there tomorrow.
Jake Burger, meanwhile, is a rookie, but he's off to a hot start after a torrid season in AAA, and looks like a much better hitter than Leury Garcia or Danny Mendick. One option was to try Burger at 2B, but that's a poor choice when Moncada can do that job much better.
Anyway, the final evolution in my thoughts about this would be for Moncada to volunteer to make the move. This eliminates any pressure to do so by the club, and keeps everyone happy. If he makes the move and Burger flames out or stops hitting, he can easily move back to 3B. He can even move back on a game-by-game basis. But if Burger keeps hitting, or improves, the Sox will be a better team, and Moncada will be seen as a selfless guy who only wants the team to win.
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Which of these is the best option?
1. Trade Burger and other prospects for Adam Frazier, if the Pirates are willing. We don't know how the Pirates would value Burger in this swap. We don't know if they would think of him as a major part of the deal, or would be the extra they would accept behind someone else.
2. Trade Burger and potentially other prospects to Arizona for Escobar. Same as above. It this Burger and a throw-in, or someone else with Burger thrown in?
3. Move Yoan Moncada back to 2B for the rest of the year and install Burger at 3B. Is this idea insane? How would Yoan feel about it? Will he do whatever is best for the team? He played 200 games at 2B in 2017-18.
4. Keep everyone and play Leury Garcia as the primary 2B for the rest of 2021. The Sox seemed to be testing out Leury at 2B prior to the break as the fall-back if they can't pry a better 2B in a trade the Sox can live with.
I don't think the Sox have easy options.
My main concern is that Jake Burger could become a very good hitter. He exploded back onto the scene this year in AAA with almost no prep the last few years. He's been rocking it for the Sox in his first 23 PAs, with a 1,006 OPS. Sure, he's 25, but so far he's crushing it as a 25-year-old. He doesn't look like he needs any more AAA seasoning.
I'm not going to say he's better than Moncada after 23 PAs, because you have no idea of the trajectory of the 2 players. But for those 23 PAs, his OPS has been better, and his fielding at 3B has seemed very good. Is it Yermin-like flash in the pan? Or is it sustainable? Certainly Burger has a quality pedigree, which suggests he's not a flash-in-the-pan.
So, while this may be crazy, I think if I were the Sox I would try option #3. There have already been a lot of sacrifices and player position movements this year for the team. Why not Moncada? Sure, you lose some defense. But I wonder if this might spur Moncada to have a better second half because he would have competition for his spot. He wouldn't want to leave any doubt who should play 3B going into 2022 and beyond.
The upsides of this move are:
A. Puts the best offense on the field -- with Burger likely much better than Garcia and Mendick.
B. Finds out what you have in Jake Burger. His value is much more likely to go up, perhaps significantly, than down.
C. Keeps you from underselling Burger when you don't really have enough info to properly evaluate him.The downsides?
A. Could piss off Yoan Moncada, and perhaps other Cubans if they feel he's being mistreated.
B. Would likely hurt defensively, as Moncada is a gold glover at 3B but wasn't as good at 2B.I doubt this is going to happen, but if it does, I'll be ready to claim I told you so!
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Vaughn certainly had a nice day today, with 2 HR and 4 RBI. Whether it's crap pitching or not, it's a welcome step forward. I don't think he will ever be the Sox best hitter, but who knows what is his upside is?
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With the trade deadline coming up and the Sox in need of an upgrade at 2nd base at least, the question arises as to who the Sox might be able to offer in trade. I don't want them giving up any high-upside minor leaguers because we don't have that many left in the system. Most of them have already graduated to the major league club or are here to fill in for injured players.
That led me to write this little piece about 4 guys who have similar abilities. All of them are hit-first players with limited defensive options. All of them are rookies, which means it's an unknown which of them will be the best player in long run. I think at this point, most of us would conclude Mercedes would come up last on this list, but I added him in anyway.
1. Andrew Vaughn. 6' 215 lbs, 23 yrs, 98 days. 3rd pick of first round of 2019 draft.
vs RHP 69 176 159 18 35 8 0 3 12 1 0 9 46 .220 .267 .327 .594 52 3 3 0 5 0 6 .278 61 67 vs LHP 42 87 74 18 23 10 0 5 10 0 0 12 21 .311 .414 .649 1.062 48 2 1 0 0 0 1 .375 182 189 Rakes against lefties. Still finding his way against right handed pitchers.
Was brought up to be a DH/1B, but he was thrown into left field when Eloy got hurt and Yermin was hitting, and has done quite well. Likely to be able to remain an outfielder for foreseeable future, with Eloy coming back to DH and Abreu entrenched at 1B. Has played some 3B in spring training, but is not likely to be more than an emergency option there. Has a strong enough arm to play RF.
2. Gavin Sheets. 6'5", 230 lbs. 25 yrs, 78 days. 2nd round of 2017 draft.
vs RHP 10 33 26 5 9 3 0 3 9 0 0 6 3 .346 .455 .808 1.262 21 1 0 0 1 0 0 .286 148 247 vs LHP 5 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 -100 -100 Rakes against righties, in limited action. Complete zero against lefties in 7 career ABs.
Sox let him compete against Vaughn in Spring Training for the DH slot, but I'm not sure it was ever a fair deal. They brought him up as other guys got hurt and Mercedes went down to AAA, and he's done very well to start. He's even tried playing RF to find a position other than DH/1B. Probably not as good as Vaughn has been in the outfield, but he also hasn't had much of a chance to show improvement there. Could he have a role as a platoon partner with Vaughn?
3. Jake Burger. 6'2", 230 lbs. 25 yrs, 91 days. 11th pick of 1st round of 2017 draft
vs RHP 5 12 12 2 6 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 10 2 0 0 0 0 1 .667 186 268 vs LHP 5 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .000 .143 .000 .143 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 -61 -55 In the minors, he was crushing lefties, but he hasn't done so here in only 7 ABs. Way too early to draw any conclusions about his ML bat. Plays 3B, and has made some good plays over there. Was tried at 2B in the minors after Madrigal got hurt, but so far TLR hasn't used him there. Could also be another 1B/DH option, and might even be able to learn the outfield. As a 3B, his arm strength must be good enough to play either corner outfield spot.
4. Yermin Mercedes. 5'11", 245 lbs. 28 yrs, 146 days. Minor league Rule 5 draft pickup.
vs RHP 64 192 175 17 43 5 0 5 26 0 1 15 40 .246 .307 .360 .667 63 7 1 0 1 0 3 .290 83 88 vs LHP 34 70 65 9 22 4 1 2 11 0 0 5 6 .338 .386 .523 .909 34 0 0 0 0 1 2 .351 147 149
Obviously hits lefties much better than righties. But that's not the whole story. Need to also provide his early and later splits.
April/March 22 21 88 82 10 34 5 0 5 16 0 1 6 12 .415 .455 .659 1.113 54 1 0 0 0 1 1 .446 202 217 May 28 25 106 95 9 21 2 1 2 14 0 0 9 20 .221 .292 .326 .619 31 4 1 0 1 0 1 .257 70 75 June 18 16 68 63 7 10 2 0 0 7 0 0 5 14 .159 .221 .190 .411 12 2 0 0 0 0 3 .204 14 Through April, he was raking. In May, over 28 games, he was hurting the team. And in June, he was worse than useless. TLR gave him a long rope, but Yermin unfortunately hung himself with it.
WHICH OF THESE GUYS WOULD YOU KEEP? WHO WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO TRADE? AND WHY?
These are the questions I would ask myself if I were Rick Hahn. Let's take them one at a time.
1. Yermin. I would be willing to trade Yermin in a heartbeat, but I don't think he has much if any trade value at this point. He would first have to reestablish his ability to hit at the major league level, and there is no reason for the Sox to bring him back up if they aren't going to use him as a backup catcher. Everyone would take Vaughn, Sheets, and Burger ahead of him at DH at this point, and in 3 weeks, Eloy will be back. So Yermin may have already had his cup of coffee so to speak. You could bring him back when rosters are expanded to 28 in September as a pinch hitter against lefties. But I don't expect him to ever get the extended chance to prove himself at the major league level for the Sox. It's too bad. The Yerminator helped save the team offense in April.
2. Vaughn. As the 3rd pick in the 2019 draft, and the youngest of these guys by 2 full years, Vaughn is going to get every chance to try to become a star for the White Sox. There was so many in the offseason suggesting he get traded for a starting pitcher or any number of guys, and if you read stuff today, some writers have him going to Pittsburgh as part of an Adam Frazier deal. He's not going anywhere. Being able to play the outfield has made him much more useful because no one wants to see Eloy risk further injury in LF once he returns.
But Vaughn is not a complete player yet. His splits against right handers so far are BAD, even though he's had twice as many ABs against them as against lefties. So it's not yet a matter of not having enough opportunities to get better. Everyone expects improvement there, but it may take some time.
3. Sheets. Sheets seems the next most valuable guy behind Vaughn at this point, mostly because a left hander with power and the Sox are badly in need of that. Grandal has 10 of his 14 HRs batting lefty, but his OPS+ is much higher as a right hander (194) than as a lefty (111). Yoan Moncada hits better as a lefty (131 OPS+) than as a righty (104 OPS+), but only has 5 HRs as a lefty in 239 plate appearances. Sheets has 3 HR in 33 PAs against righties.
The issue for Sheets is where will he play? Until Eloy returns, he's a logical platoon guy at DH. But does he play LF well enough to platoon with Vaughn once Eloy is back and hogging all the DH ABs? This may not be a perfect role for Sheets, but at least it's a role. And the hitting side of it against right handers looks strong enough to be worth keeping.
4. Burger. We haven't really seen enough of Burger to have a sense of his potential. But he's had an amazing year considering how long his multiple injuries kept him away from baseball. He didn't get to play in the alternate site last year, having to make due with much lower competition. He's also playing a position with an entrenched but young vet in Yoan Moncada who plays gold glove defense at 3B and is a switch hitter offering very little in the way of playing opportunities.
So you would have to think Burger is the mostly likely guy to trade of this group.
Even so, I would have to wonder if he didn't get hurt if the Sox might never have drafted Andrew Vaughn. Burger was drafted as hit-first player in the first round, only 8 slots behind Vaughn. Here is his Charlotte line.
2021 25 -1.8 Charlotte AAAE AAA CHW 42 185 171 29 55 15 1 10 36 0 0 12 45 .322 .368 .596 .964 102 4 1 0 1 1 10 HRs and a .964 OPS coming off years of inactivity look very good. They were also better than Gavin Sheets' numbers in Charlotte.
2021 25 -1.8 Charlotte AAAE AAA CHW 41 176 161 23 47 8 0 7 33 1 0 15 35 .292 .352 .472 .824 76 1 0 0 0 0 Doesn't Burger look like the better hitter? He's also looks a bit more well-rounded in his splits.
CONCLUSION
We really don't know enough at this point about the major league trajectories of these players. We can write off Yermin because he has no positional value and he's not supplanting Eloy at DH. But what about the other 3?
Logic says trade Burger because he's been injured a lot, has no obvious position to play, and probably has more trade value than anyone but Vaughn. I just wonder if he might become the best hitter of all of them. You have to like Vaughn because of his youth, but it's no guarantee he will be better in the long run.
So, I would probably trade Burger, but not for a 2021 rental. He has too much upside to his game. With Yoan in year-2 of his power decline, when will we see 25-HR Moncada again? Is he still feeling the effects of Covid? Burger likely has more power right now than Yoan.
I would keep Sheets for now as a platoon partner for Vaughn. But he wouldn't be untouchable. For the right offer, I would trade him.
Overall, it's an interesting group of young players.
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2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:
Not beneath him but not helpful. In one of the greatest subtweets I've ever read from a baseball manager he had this to say after Giolito was tossed:
Tony LaRussa has been ejected 88 times in his career. He's never had a season without an ejection. So far this year he's been clean. Don't expect it to remain that way. I will add, however, that he tends to have fewer ejections during the years his teams have won the Pennant or World Series, with no more than 2 in any of those seasons.
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7 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:
Let me stop you right there.
This is one of the absolute worst arguments to use to prop up a manager because by saying it, you are saying that you are also NOT QUALIFIED to know if a manager is good or bad. If you can't know when a manager is bad, you also can't know when they are good.
I observe, just like everyone else does. The difference is TLR has a record, and a very good one. In some respects, it's a record no one is likely to surpass, and they definitely won't if he can guide the White Sox to another WS crown.
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I don't expect anyone who didn't like TLR to ever change their tune. They will always find something about him they don't like to hang their hat on.
TLR is not a perfect manager, by any means. No one is. He has his strengths, and weaknesses. But he didn't get into the HOF and help his teams win the most games in integrated baseball by being an idiot. He has reasons for the decisions he makes. They don't always turn out, but often they do.
Before the season and during the early part, the biggest problem I had with TLR critics is the way many of them came off thinking they are smarter than TLR, and somehow would be more qualified to be a MLB manager than he is. That struck me as complete BS. One reason is that there's a whole lot more to managing than deciding the lineup or when to take out the starter, etc. You have to be a manager of people and a clubhouse, and you need to get guys pulling the same direction. There's a lot that goes into managing that no one on the outside who has never been in those shoes has any real clue about.
I still think the TLR hire was a good one, and was way better than hiring AJ Hinch, who couldn't keep his team from blatantly cheating their way to a WS win.
I think the resilience of the team in the face of all the injuries and the breakdowns in what was expected to be a great bullpen is due at least in part to TLR. I expected nothing less.
But, as much as I've defended TLR, I agree that it's a long season and we aren't done yet. The Sox need to get their horses back and to add at the deadline if we want to beat Boston or Houston or Tampa or Oakland in the playoffs. So far, we've crushed the weaker teams but not matched up nearly as well against the top ones. TLR isn't going to make that difference. We need Eloy and Robert and Yazmani and others back, and an upgrade at 2B and RF if we want to win in the postseason.
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We're in early June.
Yes, several members of the bullpen have had issues. But that doesn't mean they will continue to have issues for the rest of the year.
Cody Heuer, Matt Foster, Garrett Crochet, and Michael Kopech are all rookies with less than a year of service time.
Evan Marshall, who's 31, had a great 2020 season. and pitched reasonably well in 2019.
Bummer has been wild at times, but when he controls his slider, can be unhittable.
Hendriks has had a few outings where he could have been better, but seems to be in stride now.
All of those guys could look better in September than they do now.
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Everyone is saying TLR is now #2 all-time.
What they fail to point out is that John McGraw only managed segregated baseball, and Connie Mack only managed 4 seasons (out of 53) without complete segregation, and it was hardly integrated, as only Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby and maybe a few others were playing from 1947-50, Mack's last year.
If you divide integrated baseball from segregated baseball, TLR has the same 2,764 wins, and he's way ahead of #2.
Next up is Bobby Cox with 2,504.
Joe Torre with 2,326
Sparky Anderson 2,194
Walter Alston 2,040
Bruch Bochy 2.003That's the list of managers who only managed integrated baseball who exceeded 2,000 wins.
Dusty Baker at 1,923 is likely to get there before he's done.
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Mendick is the easy call.
1. He has an option, so it the easiest to send down and recall when needed.
2. Lamb is the much better hitter, and is a lefty, which we could use more of.
3. Garcia is more versatile because he can also play CF, and switch hits. He's been overplayed this year, but that's because he's covering for injured players.
4. Hamilton has had some nice games where he's made real impact. HRs in back to back 3-1 wins over Baltimore. Great catch with the bases loaded yesterday. He has value for spot roles.
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in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
For the Field of Dreams, it really should involve the White Sox. They did have players from other teams in the film, but Shoeless Joe was the key.
Saw a graphic last night on the broadcast. This was the 15th time a Sox walkoff homer beat the Yanks. Shoeless Joe hit the first one.