thanks

I think that for Contreras and El Duque, the main things are they faced strong hitting clubs and faired either good or decent. Playing against the best makes you better when you face the weaker opponents. Compared to what they faced in the AL East, this should be easier for them, easier on their arms and we finally have a chance to dominate the weak teams like we haven't before. El Duque and Contreras will rack up wins against the Royals and Tigers and Indians of our division IMO because they've seen better IMO. I'm expecting 2-1 wins for once and us being the winning team finally with guys like Contreras and El Duque.

El-Duque to take #3 spot.

 

Santana: 6L, Radke 11L, Silva 8L, Lohse 13L, Mays 11L (03)

Buehrle: 10L, Garcia 11L, El-Duque+youngin 8L, Contreras 9L, Garland 11L,

 

Santana over Buehrle

Radke ties Garcia

Silva ties El-Duque+fill-in

Contreras over Lohse

Garland over Mays+fill-in

 

Edge: CWS

 

The move of El-Duque to #3 negates Silva's advantage. Here's the way to look at it.

The probability of Silva or the Twins gettting only 8L from the #3 starter is about the same as the probability of El-Duque or the CWS getting only 8L from the #3 starter.

 

I've changed my vote based on William's stellar health report for Hernandez & the belief that the CWS will go with 12 arms & limit Orlando's pitch count to 100.

I'm picking the Sox for two main reasons: the first is the bottom 3, the second is the nature of Brad Radke. I think you guys that are picking the Twins are vastly overrating him. His ERA for last season was his career low by a very good margin. Take a look at his ERA's from the last 4 seasons:

 

2001: 3.94

2002: 4.72

2003: 4.49

2004: 3.48

 

Granted he only made 21 starts in 2002, but this doesn't look like the dominating #2 that we are painting him as. He had one decent year, one Garland-like year, a mediocre year, and a fantastic year. I'm more likely to believe he is somewhere around those other numbers than last year's. Out of ten years in his career, he's had an ERA under 4 (4.25 actually) only 4 times, and his previous career best ERA was 3.75 7 years ago. In my book he is at best a draw with Mark Buehrle, and when you factor in the Cell I probably take Mark.

I'll make this easy for you.  Compare the potential of the 2005 Twins to the team ARZ fielded when they were world champions. Santana will be the favorite to win yet another Cy Young before the season starts.  That's a 35 win potential between him Radke alone.  They need just 35 wins from the other 3 to be in a position to iwin the division. 

 

A healthy Santana + Radke is worth the same as a healthy Buehrle + Garcia + Garland.

Ozzie was dead on in realizing the stakes had changed.  That happens when your division rival & leader features a Cy Young winner

Well heres the good news. Has anyone heard of the Cy Young Jinx. Almost every pithcer who wins a Cy young experiences some fall out the year after. Im not saying in every case, but it is very common. See our friend frmo the blue jays last year

Santana does not look like a jinx. I think you are forgetting his performance the year before as well. Put another way in the past 2 seasons (12 months of play) Santana has had about 4 below average months, & 4 good months, & 4 dominant months.

 

That's a sign of a guy ready to win the Cy Young again.

Santana does not look like a jinx.  I think you are forgetting his performance the year before as well.  Put another way in the past 2 seasons (12 months of play) Santana has had about 4 below average months, & 4 good  months, & 4 dominant months.

 

That's a sign of a guy ready to win the Cy Young again.

he didnt win the cy young the year before, and never did I say he was a fluke. Its like the madden jinx, not always true, but has some validity. Nice try for an argument though

Santana does not look like a jinx.  I think you are forgetting his performance the year before as well.

Yeah most people forget Santana's performance in '03. He was 12-3 with a 3.07 ERA. He started 18 games. Over the past two years he has a record of 32-9. That is sick.