Worried About The Red Sox Elimination Record?

[Fingish]

As a lifelong White Sox fan, after hearing so much about the Red Sox recent record in elimination games since last night from seemingly every media source out there, I was begining to get worried again.

 

Then I really started to think about it, and found a way of looking at it that allows me to both feel better about or chances of going to the ALCS and get through the next 24 hours or so without giving myself a heart attack.

 

The line we keep hearing repeated is that they are 8-1 in their last 9 elimination games, and when it is stated like that it seems to be undeniable evidence that our lead will somehow be overcome. I would be curious what their all time record is in elimination games, as it is probably much closer to a normal winning pct. versus the 89% clip implied by this stat, something tells me that there is a reason Red Sox boosters in the media want to leave out everything before just recently.

 

But lets think about statistics for a second...

 

9 games is a very small sample size, and for any baseball team to win 89% of their games under nearly any circumstance is probably widely acknowledged to be extremely above the expected average. If a team wins just 60% of their games they are considered great, any statistic that is parsed out in such a way to result in a team winning nearly 90% of those matchups is obviously more likely to be evidence of an abberation than proof of some particular quality about the team.

 

Now, over the next 3 games we will increase the sample size in to 12 games, a 33% increase in the sample size. It is a fact that the larger a sample gets, the more it will revert towards it's average. If we assume that even a great playoff team would only win 60% of their elimination games, the odds are much higher that if we increase the sample by 33% that the Red Sox winning pct. will go down rather than up.

 

So knowing that it is virtually impossible for a team to win 89% of their games over the long term, and probably should expect that teams playing in elimination games in general have a less than .500 winning pct., afterall they wouldn't be facing elimination if they were the better team, then the Red Sox myth of the great 8-1 record seems like the best evidence yet that our White Sox will be playing in game 1 of the ALCS next Tuesday.

 

 

 

I really had started to get worried, thinking that history would repeat itself, and we would go the way of the Indians and the Yankees. But now that I have rationalized out this reason to view their recent playoff performance in these terms, I found that I am once again looking forward to the games in Fenway, I really think we have a good chance of winning it out there.

[Wedge]

It's a dumb stat that just shows that they've been on the brink of elimination a lot over the last few years. By my math, 3 games against the A's (3-0), 2 games against the Yankees (1-1), and 4 against the Yankees again last year (4-0).

 

The teams that compiled that "impressive" record were a lot more talented than this year's incarnation of the Red Sox. Their offenses were much more potent and certainly their pitching staffs from top to bottom were superior. The pitching match-up for each of those games was as follows:

 

Lowe vs. Lilly

Burkett vs. Hudson

Martinez vs. Zito

---------------------

Burkett vs. Pettite

Lowe vs. Hernandez

---------------------

Martinez vs. Clemens

Martinez vs. Mussina

Schilling vs. Lieber

Lowe vs. Brown

 

While they didn't always "win" the match-ups they faced, I don't think they were ever as outclassed as they are going to be in

 

Wakefield vs. Garcia

Schilling vs. Garland

whoever vs. Contreras

 

And let's not forget the Achilles heel that is their bullpen.

[The Ginger Kid]

You have to admit, their confidence is pretty stunning. If the shoe were on the other foot how confident would you be in the Sox? Me? Not so much.

 

They're a team that relies heavily on emotion and momentum which explains their terrific record in bahston. The White Sox are playing great, but we've seen them be very schizo this year, haven't we? Especially these last couple of months? I honestly believe they are not going to resort to corpseball but I also believe much can happen in this series should the Sox piss away the momentum they've gained this week. They don't just think they can come back, they KNOW it. I think it's a big difference.

 

I also think the bottom line is that the 2005 Chicago White Sox are a much better team and will prevail.

[BobDylan]

I think it comes down to this:

 

Make it an 8-2 record

 

and

 

The White Sox are flat out a better team. They struggled down the stretch, but when the going got tough, the White Sox won. They have a ton of heart, a ton of pitching and a manager that will keep them loose. I know it's crazy haven't won since 1917...but I think the White Sox have a real shot. A REAL shot.

Edited October 7, 2005 by BobDylan

[Punch and Judy Garland]

Well St. Louis looked like they would sweep the Atros last year after 2 wins at home before dropping three on the road. It's hard to go on the road in the playoffs-no doubt. That said, let's hope for the wind blowing in tomorrow so that Freddy can pitch up in the zone and so that we will trying to squeeze runs across rather than play corpseball. I love our team in bad weather-just the opposite feeling of our recent teams

[the People's Champ]

QUOTE(Fingish @ Oct 6, 2005 -> 02:17 PM)

As a lifelong White Sox fan, after hearing so much about the Red Sox recent record in elimination games since last night from seemingly every media source out there, I was begining to get worried again.

 

Then I really started to think about it, and found a way of looking at it that allows me to both feel better about or chances of going to the ALCS and get through the next 24 hours or so without giving myself a heart attack.

 

The line we keep hearing repeated is that they are 8-1 in their last 9 elimination games, and when it is stated like that it seems to be undeniable evidence that our lead will somehow be overcome.  I would be curious what their all time record is in elimination games, as it is probably much closer to a normal winning pct. versus the 89% clip implied by this stat, something tells me that there is a reason Red Sox boosters in the media want to leave out everything before just recently. 

 

But lets think about statistics for a second...

 

9 games is a very small sample size, and for any baseball team to win 89% of their games under nearly any circumstance is probably widely acknowledged to be extremely above the expected average.  If a team wins just 60% of their games they are considered great, any statistic that is parsed out in such a way to result in a team winning nearly 90% of those matchups is obviously more likely to be evidence of an abberation than proof of some particular quality about the team.

 

Now, over the next 3 games we will increase the sample size in to 12 games, a 33% increase in the sample size.  It is a fact that the larger a sample gets, the more it will revert towards it's average.  If we assume that even a great playoff team would only win 60% of their elimination games, the odds are much higher that if we increase the sample by 33% that the Red Sox winning pct. will go down rather than up.

 

So knowing that it is virtually impossible for a team to win 89% of their games over the long term, and probably should expect that teams playing in elimination games in general have a less than .500 winning pct., afterall they wouldn't be facing elimination if they were the better team, then the Red Sox myth of the great 8-1 record seems like the best evidence yet that our White Sox will be playing in game 1 of the ALCS next Tuesday.

I really had started to get worried, thinking that history would repeat itself, and we would go the way of the Indians and the Yankees.  But now that I have rationalized out this reason to view their recent playoff performance in these terms, I found that I am once again looking forward to the games in Fenway, I really think we have a good chance of winning it out there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Dude you are thinking way too hard.

[YASNY]

Dude you are thinking way too hard.

 

That's just a long winded way of saying the Red Sox are over due to lose an elimination game. I like the way he's thinking.

[TLAK]

If there is one thing I have learned about statistics its that past performance does not guarantee future results. True both in baseball and the stock market.