Postseason Analysis (Pitching vs Batting)

[RME JICO]

In advance, sorry for the long post.

 

After the Game Thread last night I wanted to debunk some discussions about making the playoffs with a top rated offense and sub par pitching. So I looked at all the AL playoffs teams from the last 10 years (40 teams) to see where they ranked in batting and pitching. Here is what I came up with:

 

Teams that made it to the World Series (out of 10 teams): 7 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for both batting and pitching (70%), 2 teams (05 CHW, 96 NYY) were ranked in the Top 6 for pitching only, and 1 team (97 CLE) was ranked in the Top 6 for batting only. This is a pretty strong indicator that you need a well rounded team to make it deep in the playoffs, and a strong offense alone will not get you to the World Series very often.

 

For the ALCS losing teams (out of 10 teams): 4 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for both batting and pitching, 4 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for pitching only, and 2 teams (96 BAL, 03 BOS) were ranked in the Top 6 for batting only. This starts to even out a little bit and it shows that a team can make it this far with less balance or with only one strength.

 

For the ALDS losing teams (out of 20 teams): 9 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for both batting and pitching, 4 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for pitching only, and 7 teams were ranked in the Top 6 for batting only. This shows that you can make it to the playoffs with a strong offense alone, but you will more than likely not make it past the ALDS.

 

Finally, a collective total shows that of the 40 playoff teams since 1996, 20 or 50% were in the Top 6 in both batting and pitching, 10 teams were in the Top 6 in pitching only, and 10 teams were in the Top 6 in batting only.

 

Current 2006 Team Ranks:

 

Batting: #1 CHW, #2 CLE, #3 BOS, #4 NYY, #5 TOR, #6 DET

Pitching: #1 DET, #2 LAA, #3 OAK, #4 NYY, #5 MIN, #6 CHW

 

Now that is only half the analysis because that doesn’t show how many teams didn’t make the playoffs with Top 6 in pitching or batting.

 

There were 9 teams since 1996 to miss the playoffs with Top 6 pitching and batting. Ironically, 3 teams (CLE, TOR, OAK) did it in 2005, the most for any season. That means 20 out of 29 teams made the playoffs with Top 6 pitching and batting (69%). This is probably the most obvious way to make it to the postseason, with a good balance of offense and pitching.

 

For pitching only, there were 21 teams that had a Top 6 pitching staff that did not make the playoffs over the last 10 years. That means that 10 out of 31 teams since 1996 made the playoffs with a Top 6 pitching staff only (32%).

 

For batting only, it was exactly the same as the pitching, 21 teams that had a Top 6 offense did not make the playoffs. Making the total 10 out 31 teams to make the playoffs with a Top 6 Offense only (32%).

 

In conclusion, the numbers show that no AL team since 1996 has won the World Series with a Top 6 Offense only. Only 32% of teams with a Top 6 Offense only make the playoffs, and 70% of them bow out in the ALDS, the other 20% drop in the ALCS, and the last 10% (sorry CLE) lost in the World Series. An Offense can carry a team in the regular season, but the numbers show that you will not make it very far in the post season without a solid pitching staff. In comparison, 32% of teams with a Top 6 pitching staff make the playoffs (same as Offense), but only 40% lose in the ALDS, 40% lose in the ALCS, and 20% went on to win the World Series (05 CHW, 96 NYY). Balance is the key, but pitching seems to be the key ingredient to a successful postseason run. Without it, you cannot win consistently in 5 and 7 game series.

[BobDylan]

I don't think the White Sox pitchers are so bad that they can't hold the fort down when the going gets tough. Maybe not as solid as last year, but they have a lot of offense to keep them out of long slumps and win games when the pitcher didn't exactly "have it". But keep in mind, nobody has anchored the Sox staff for over a month now. Jose needs to be the dominating force he was down the stretch last year. They aren't as good as last year, but I don't think they're so bad they can't keep their team in the race. Garland won't win 18 and drop down a 3.50 ERA, but even if the Sox can get him into 2004 form they'd be well off. Same with Freddy Garcia. But I think the key player of the White Sox is Jose Contreras. He needs to be a dominating force for the rest of the year. He was an automatic win at the end of last year, if he can be that good again this year you'll see a much better White Sox staff. Like hitting is contagious, so is pitching. Jose needs to be the ace.