Latest White Sox VORP Ratings

[RME JICO]

Here are the latest VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) ratings for the Sox. I also listed the projected ratings that were given at the start of the season (on the left). Some players totally exceeded expectations (Dye, Thome), while others did not (Podsednik, Buehrle, Anderson, Uribe, Vazquez).

 

      Projected / Actual

Konerko    27.1	/ 48.6 

Iguchi	   20.2 / 23.6 

Uribe	   17.4 / -0.4 

Thome	   16.5	/ 64.8 

Anderson   14.0 / -7.6

Pierzynski 12.3 / 18.7

Crede	    9.0	/ 22.6 

Dye	    7.9 / 64.3

Podsednik   2.6 / -9.2
 

Ozuna	   -6.8 / 5.9 

Gload	    4.3 / 4.8

Mackowiak   4.2 / 8.6 

Cintron	        / 3.6 

Alomar          / -2.5

Widger          / -6.0
 

      Projected / Actual

Vazquez	    39.9 / 23.1 

Buehrle	    39.6 / 15.2 

Garcia	    31.1 / 27.4

Contreras   25.3 / 32.5

Garland	    23.3 / 29.1

McCarthy    21.3 / 11.3 

Cotts	     8.0 / 3.7 

Jenks	     7.0 / 16.9

Tracey     -11.6 / 2.5

Thornton	 / 16.1

MacDougal        / 11.8	

Riske	         / 7.5

Logan            / -6.4

Politte          / -9.4

 

Somewhat surprising, Buehrle was the worst underachiever with a (-24.4), followed by Anderson (-21.6), Uribe (-17.0), Vazquez (-16.8), and Podsednik (-11.8).

 

 

 

Dye exceeded his projections by a whopping 56.4. Thome exceeded his by 48.3.

 

 

 

The worst offensive player was Podsednik with a (-9.2). To put just how bad that is into perspective, he ranked 1003rd out of 1028 players ranked.

 

 

 

It is pretty easy to see where the team needs to improve in the offseason.

Edited September 27, 2006 by RME JICO

[santo=dorf]

That data shows me how flawed the projection system is (PETCO?) and how little one show pay both money and attention to that crap.

[VAfan]

I love stats, but I find VORP to be nothing but a nuisance. The numbers have no real meaning, and seem counterintuitive in many respects.

 

For example, was Brandon McCarthy really an 11.2? The guy lost almost every key game he was put into down the stretch. Sure, Ozzie misused him more than any player on the club, but he also failed to perform on most of the occasions when he was used.

 

And is Juan Uribe really a negative player? I realize the guy NEVER walks, and his batting average is horrid. But he drove in more than 70 runs!! AJ Pierzynski, who had the three highest OBP players on the team hitting directly ahead of him nearly every game, didn't match that.

 

Plus, was Thornton almost as valuable as Bobby Jenks?? (16.1 v. 16.9) Really???

 

So, just take these numbers with a heavy dose of salt.

[daa84]

That data shows me how flawed the projection system is (PETCO?) and how little one show pay both money and attention to that crap.

PECOTA never projects anyone to hit like over .310 and over 35 homers, it takes into consideration that every player has the possibility of getting injured. For instance, lets say thome has a 1 in 3 chance of getting injured and missing most of the year. His projected totals go down by 1/3 to compensate. Its like vegas odds, they dont tell you what will happen, but tell you what has teh best odds of happening.

 

VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Edited September 27, 2006 by daa84

[Hangar18]

I see that Jim Thome "totally exceeded" expectations, but why was he considered to basically not be a factor? Because of the injury?

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(daa84 @ Sep 27, 2006 -> 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

PECOTA never projects anyone to hit like over .310 and over 35 homers, it takes into consideration that every player has the possibility of getting injured. For instance, lets say thome has a 1 in 3 chance of getting injured and missing most of the year. His projected totals go down by 1/3 to compensate. Its like vegas odds, they dont tell you what will happen, but tell you what has teh best odds of happening.

 

VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Ok, so how exactly do they systematically determine the odds of a player being injured?

 

Vegas, like these stat sites (BP,) is all about suckering people for their money.

[jackie hayes]

VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Well, it would probably raise Uribe to being an everyday player, right? Anything over 0 is better than a replacement player, so as long as his d brings the vorp over 0, we'd probably be better sticking with Uribe.

 

I'm not so sure of that, but at least that's the theory, I believe.

[SABR Sox]

Ok, so how exactly do they systematically determine the odds of a player being injured?

 

Vegas, like these stat sites (BP,) is all about suckering people for their money.

 

I must admit, I was a member for 3-months and I wasn't completley impressed. The articles were a good read, but you can find all of the good stuff on the DT Cards and the stuff on the PECOTA cards not needed for viewing.

 

PECOTA is still a very god projection system though.