Rick Hahn on Tribune Live

[effectivelywild]

I believe Baseball Prospectus did a study on the effect of a basestealer on the pitcher and found that they don't make much of a difference.

 

I think I've read the same report. This may go down as one of those "scouting vs. stats" arguments---when you watch the game and see a pitcher obivously bothered by a speedy guy on first, you feel like it has to have an impact. But the stats don't back it up.

 

In a slightly different vein, I think I've read that a base-stealer needs to have a ~75% success rate to break even in terms of net runs created. Anyone else heard this? Certainly this may be a bit different in close-and-late games, in which the difference between a man on first and a man on second can be more valuable.

[witesoxfan]

Right out of a Bill James textbook. There are other factors. The stress of the pitcher throwing over to first if a guy has a reputation to steal. Believe it or not pitchers are human they can become distracted and worry about a guy threatening to steal. This has become more apparent in today's game because few players steal as much so the pitchers are uncomfortable when they see it.

 

both views have their advantages and disadvantages that's why I think a good mix is the way to go. One doesn't need to be stuck to one particular way.

 

But I do like the overall philosophy of there are many different ways that players can be useful, they just don't all boil down to numbers.

 

The best comparison I can make from last year would be Kevin Youkilis to Jimmy Rollins.

 

Youkilis - .279/.381/.429/.810; 5 of 7 in SBs (71%); 100 runs scored; 669 PA's (6.69 PA/RS)

Rollins - .277/.334/.478/.812; 36 of 40 in SBs (90%); 127 runs scored; 751 PA's (5.91 PA/RS)

 

And Youkilis led off 95 games for the Red Sox last year too, and he never hit below 4 in the order, so he was constantly hitting in front of Manny and Ortiz, which makes up for Rollins hitting in front of Utley and Howard.

 

The averages and OPS's are the same for all intents and purposes. However, the difference lies in Youk's superiority in getting on base, and Rollins superiority in getting into scoring position. It's quite easy to see which is more effective.

 

Now, there's about one variable I can think of that may have had an effect on this, and that would be the pitcher in the NL making the 3rd out on a regular basis, thus giving Rollins more chances to score upon leading off an inning. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but I'd guess that may have an effect on around 5-7 runs at the very most, which still leaves him at 6.26, well ahead of Youkilis.

[Kalapse]

In a slightly different vein, I think I've read that a base-stealer needs to have a ~75% success rate to break even in terms of net runs created. Anyone else heard this? Certainly this may be a bit different in close-and-late games, in which the difference between a man on first and a man on second can be more valuable.

Yes I have heard this and I personally believe in this line of thinking, 75% and under is just pathetic, 75%-79% is pretty good and 80%+ is money. If a baserunner can't have atleast a 75% SB% then they should not be stealing at all. Anything below the 75% threshold is hurting the team more than it's helping. This just makes Podsednik's 70% (99/141) SB% in a White Sox uniform look all the more pathetic.

[Vance Law]

In a slightly different vein, I think I've read that a base-stealer needs to have a ~75% success rate to break even in terms of net runs created. Anyone else heard this? Certainly this may be a bit different in close-and-late games, in which the difference between a man on first and a man on second can be more valuable.

 

 

In this year's Handbook, Bill James claims the break even point to be about a 64% or 65% stolen base rate.

[CanOfCorn]

I think that Ozzie would rather have someone that can get on base and be able to BUNT than someone who can steal bases. Now, that's just me saying that. I also don't know how good of a bunter Erstad is.

 

Also, we need to be consistent. And when I say "we" I mean us as fans. If we want someone who has the green light at all times, if we want aggressive grinders, then we want a 3rd base coach who will take a chance with AJ or Paulie. Now, I know there is a cut-off on when to send and when not to send, but how many throws from the outfield are rushed or airmailed or bounce 249 times? A good outfielder knows the situation and who's on base and takes their time...many outfielders just want to get the ball in. I have no problem with a 3rd base coach being aggressive...even if it might cost the game...as long as he's consistent!!! Love him or hate him, Joey was consistent.

[effectivelywild]

In this year's Handbook, Bill James claims the break even point to be about a 64% or 65% stolen base rate.

 

Really? I haven't picked it up yet. Did he mention why he's lowered the rate?

[Vance Law]

I don't recall, but I can check it this evening.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 25, 2007 -> 10:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes I have heard this and I personally believe in this line of thinking, 75% and under is just pathetic, 75%-79% is pretty good and 80%+ is money. If a baserunner can't have atleast a 75% SB% then they should not be stealing at all. Anything below the 75% threshold is hurting the team more than it's helping. This just makes Podsednik's 70% (99/141) SB% in a White Sox uniform look all the more pathetic.

...and that based off what? Go ahead, admit that you saw it on BP in an article writtenby "clueless" Joe Sheehan.

 

How is it 75% is "pathetic?" and 76% is "pretty good?"

[Kalapse]

...and that based off what? Go ahead, admit that you saw it on BP in an article writtenby "clueless" Joe Sheehan.

 

How is it 75% is "pathetic?" and 76% is "pretty good?"

I don't read Baseball Prospectus all that often so no I didn't see it in any article by Joe Sheehan, it's just a philosophy I've adopted from following baseball in many different forms over the years. And when you're dealing with stuff like this it's always a problem to break it down in segments because it's impossible to say 75% is bad and 75.1% is good that logic makes no sense. I knew someone would quote that and well I'm not going to elaborate much because I don't really care. When dealing with SB% and stats like it you have to go on a case by case basis for obvious reasons. I think you're bright enough to figure out what I was trying to say instead of taking the numbers so literally.

 

I will admit the terms I used to describe each percentage segment were poorly chosen but the post was rushed and I wasn't really thinking it through.

[Hatchetman]

not all stolen bases are the same.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(Hatchetman @ Jan 26, 2007 -> 04:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

not all stolen bases are the same.

Same with caught stealings.

 

If a batter at the plate misses the hit and run call and the runner is gunned down big time, the runner gets the blame and get tabbed with the negative stat.

 

Some pickoffs are ruled caught stealing based on the scorer's view of how the runner was leaning.

[Jeremy]

Caught the tail end of it.

 

What caught me is Hahn talking about the leadoff hitter. He basically said, "While it's not traditional, we are just looking for someone to get on base. If you can be disruptive on the basepaths like Pods is when healthy, thats a bonus, but just get on base, thats what we are looking for."

 

I have been preaching that forever, and I'm glad some in the organization are saying the same things. Hopefully Ozzie will start to think that way...

 

I agree wholeheartedly. It gets even better, I don't have a link or anything, but I seem to remember a similar quote attributed to Ozzie a month or two back. What bothers me is the organizations obsession with Pods' "lead off skills" strikes me as the only rational explanation for why he was resigned. If the team is completely open to letting Tad hit leadoff then why not just put Fields in left?

[Vance Law]

Really? I haven't picked it up yet. Did he mention why he's lowered the rate?

 

I was slightly off in my recollection, but close.

 

On page 292 he's talking about getting thrown out on the basepaths, not on steal attempts, but trying to take an extra base:

 

"For a runner in scoring position to try to take an extra bse is not a breakeven gamble, or anything like a breakeven gamble. It's not even like a stolen base attempt, which breaks even about 65% to 67%."