DTrain will be inconsistent. Roberts has had one season with an ERA under 4 and has never won more than 13 games. Rogers' arm is about to fall off and Bonderman needs to get it back together.

 

Yep. With those 4 I'll predict one good, one mediocre, and two bad seasons (performance and/or injury).

 

I feel like our bullpen now is better than theirs. We will have a better overall pitching staff than them as measured by team ERA+. Not sure by how much.

 

And I expect them to have a better offense than us. Not sure by how much. But I expect declines this season from Magglio, Granderson, Renteria, and Polanco. I don't expect the Tigers offense to be enormously better than last year. Cabrera over Inge is a huge improvement for that one position. Renteria over Casey is not huge. Then factor in some expected regression toward career averages.

 

If we run the 2008 season 100 times, how often do we finish where? 1st 15 times, 2nd 25 times, 3rd 35 times, 4th 15 times, 5th 10 times? Guesses. The Indians and Tigers don't win 1st and 2nd 50 times apiece. Which season will happen?

 

I still expect the Indians to win the division. Possibly the best pitching staff in the AL, and assuredly the best pitching in the AL Central, and an underrated offense - people seem to forget that the Indians scored 811 runs last year while Travis Hafner sucked compared to his usual standards.

If they were on the Sox, a lot of people would be throwing them under the bus.

I think he got it backward. See Contreras.

I think he got it backward. See Contreras.

 

Contreras is a 40 year old not a mid 20's SP like Willis or Bonderman or a SP in the "prime years" like Robertson (30 yrs old). Slight difference.

I still expect the Indians to win the division. Possibly the best pitching staff in the AL, and assuredly the best pitching in the AL Central, and an underrated offense - people seem to forget that the Indians scored 811 runs last year while Travis Hafner sucked compared to his usual standards.

I'm still just not sold on their pitching staff. Their bullpen went from being ranked 11th in the AL in ERA in 06 to 4th in 07. Their bullpen ERA dropped by nearly a run, and their starters put up the best ERA in the AL.

 

One of these teams in the Central, maybe more than one, is going to step up and win a ton of games. But right now I just don't have a clue which one it will be. Each of them has issues that could catch up with them.

I think he got it backward. See Contreras.

 

I got nothing backwards. I've been around this board for a while. I said exactly what I meant to say.