joeynach Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think this may have been shown in another thread, I can remember, but does anyone know where to find projections for a team Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. I would be nice to see the projections for the Sox and other AL teams and then apply the Bill James Pythagorean formula: W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81]. This would reveal a pretty accurate projection for season wins, which can be used for awesome knowledge/gambling. Anyway, does anyone have a link or source for those RS and RA projections per team (BP, Pecota, Zips, etc). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 QUOTE (joeynach @ Feb 22, 2011 -> 05:26 PM) I think this may have been shown in another thread, I can remember, but does anyone know where to find projections for a team Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. I would be nice to see the projections for the Sox and other AL teams and then apply the Bill James Pythagorean formula: W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81]. This would reveal a pretty accurate projection for season wins, which can be used for awesome knowledge/gambling. Anyway, does anyone have a link or source for those RS and RA projections per team (BP, Pecota, Zips, etc). Not yet. There will be soon. CAIRO has them up already and I think BP will have theirs up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 22, 2011 -> 05:32 PM) Not yet. There will be soon. CAIRO has them up already and I think BP will have theirs up soon. Sweet post here when they become available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Will in the meantime if you apply the Pythagorean formula you can assume what you will need to be a 90+win team. Last year the Sox scored 752 runs and gave up 704 runs, thats good for a win percentage of about .532, so 162*.532 = 86 wins. Last year we won 88 games, so we outperformed the formula by 2 games, which is still well within the Standard deviation which has been about 4.5 wins the last few years. So what will it take to win the division, 90 wins, 92 wins? Well to finish with 92 wins the sox are going to need to score about 30 more runs (780) and give up about 30 less (670). That would yield a win % of about .568, so 162*.568 = 92 wins. Is that do able with the additions we made? What needs to happen to reduce the number of runs our pitching staff allows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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