Hi, this is my first post:
Overall, if KW had to take a chance on any trade, this is the one I'd hope he'd do. AJ Burnett is simply put a stud, front-of-the-line type pitcher. Baseball is my #1 sport and following closely through fantasy teams for several years, I can say that this guy has ridiculously good stuff. He and Vazquez are both very good pitchers, but I have to give the edge to AJ. They are both capable of striking out hitters at almost one per inning... a plus at a hitter's friendly park like US Comiskular. However, Vazquez gives up alot more homers than Burnett. Both pitchers are young in their respective careers so let's examine each pitcher's best year as evidence of their capabilities since Burnett was out with Tommy John's (due to Marlins' overuse and abuse) and there were reports of Vazquez having arm/shoulder problems during last season.
Vazquez 2003 (MTL):
W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
13 12 3.24 34 34 4 1 0 0 230.2 198 93 83 28 4 57 241
Burnett 2002 (FL):
12 9 3.30 31 29 7 5 0 1 204.1 153 84 75 12 9 90 203
As you can see W/L records are a wash (although I hardly find them tellling) as well as ERA. Burnett wins out in shutouts (Vazquez's single season high was 3). Had he been allotted the same number of innings, Burnett's strikeout total and earned run total would be about equal to Vazquez's. Vazquez would have allowed more hits, but Burnett would make that up with a greater number of walks. But the biggest number that you have to look at here is the number of homeruns given up. Vazquez, over the same amount of innings, would have doubled the number of homeruns that Burnett would have given up... a BIG problem if pitching for the Sox. Although I'd expect Vazquez to pitch better for the Sox than he did for the Yanks, I can see his 33 homers given up last year going up.
Additional notes to consider:
Salaries--- Vazquez $10,500,000 (2005) $11,500,000 (2006) $12,500,000 (2007)
Burnett $3,121,429 (one year left)
If Vazquez could return to his 2003 form and the way mediocre pitchers are being signed to huge contracts... his contract might not be so horrible. However, Burnett's contract is considerable less. Personally, I'd take the risk on him, have Ozzie try and schmooze him, and try to sign him to an extension.
Injuries--- Burnett Tommy John's
Vazquez ? shoulder/arm problems ?
Vazquez's numbers suffered last year. Whether it was the "New York pressure" or a dead arm/injury, is undecided... but it's a risk whatever it is. Burnett had Tommy John because his manager had this cute idea of letting him pitch till his arm fell off. He came back last year and started off a little rocky. However, over the final ten games he lowered his ERA from 4.53 to 3.68 while only allowing 2 homers (compared with 7 in his first 10 games back). To me, the lesser risk here is Burnett as he's clearly on the road to recovery and return to stardom while Vazquez only deteriorated as last season wore on.
Other aspects of the trade:
Konerko AND Garland for him? Marlins get Vazquez and Karsay (who's not just a throw-in... is a GREAT reliever with a career 3.87 ERA (started career as starter) and had a 3.26 ERA in his last full season (2002). Burnett is clearly the better option for the Sox and the better bargain, so it seems right that the Marlins get an additional pitcher in return. The Sox should still get another prospect out of this deal though... preferable from the Marlins... and talent-wise should correspond with how much the Yankees would pay of Vazquez's salary.
Konerko's 2005 salary $8.75 million
Garland's 2005 salary $2.3 million
Burnett's 2005 salary $3.1 million (approx)
8.75+2.3-3.1=7.95 or roughly $8 million dollars saved
$63 mill (current sox payroll)- 8= $55 mill
I don't know how much the cheapass chairman plans on spending this year but needless to say we would have alot of money left over. The problem would be working fast enough to get this trade through before other FA's sign contracts. There was talk about having interest in the left-handed Carlos Delgado. He might be close to a contract with the M's (not to mention asking waaay too much), so he could be out of the picture along with Sexson. I think most of us could agree that after we traded Konerko and Garland, the chances of trading for Hudson dwindle even farther, not to mention that there isn't really any mention of the Sox being in contention in the Hudson hunt anyway. Therefore it would be wise to spend some of that money on either Clement or Perez. I think both pitchers would put up similar number for the Sox meaning I'd probably take whichever would come cheaper. I'm assuming the cheapest we could lock one of them up for would be 8 million (Perez will sign for more than 6 per year, obviously... perhaps Clement would take a lesser contract to stay in Chicago, not have to move, etc). That takes us back up to $63 mill.
Rotation complete:
Garcia
Buerle
Burnett
Clement/Perez
Contreras
Since our pen is already the best at least in the division, I think we can leave that alone. What about the gaping holes now in the lineup? Who could replace Konerko in the lineup? Well, Ross Gload showed me alot last year. Don't get me wrong, I love Paulie, but those were some career numbers he put up last year. I can see him at best repeating those numbers but will probably fall short of the homers he had last year. Ross Gload stepped up whenever called upon... for a spot start, for a pinch hit, etc. Imagine what he could do given daily playing time? Let's look at the numbers here too:
G AB R H 2B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
R Gload 110 234 28 75 16 7 44 112 20 37 0 3 .375 .479 .321
P Konerko 155 563 84 156 22 41 117 301 69 107 1 0 .359 .535 .277
extrapolating Gload's numbers out, he would have:
38 doubles
17 homers
180 hits!
106 RBI!
48 BB
89 SO
It would appear as if Gload could not only replace Konkero's productivity, but he would also fit better into the Sox's new smallball approach. (Homers kill rallies). Gload had a higher average and higher OBP... hard things to accomplish in limited playing time. Although this is mere speculation and obviously I'd be more comfortable with a proven commodity like Konerko... if he had to be traded for pitching... I'd feel comfortable knowing Gload could take over.
After that, if we made two more additions, we could be complete:
As much as I've always despised Pierzynski, hated his guts, etc., he would actually be a welcome addition to the Sox. His production took a dip last year but that could've come from clubhouse disputes, moving to the NL, etc. He is a career .294 hitter and look at his numbers from 2003:
137 487 63 152 35 3 11 74 226 24 55 3 1 .360 .464 .312
I believe he would be due $5 million at arbitration but could possibly had for cheaper (someone correct me on the 5 million if I'm wrong). That takes us up to $68 million.
Alot of questions surround the new acquisition of Podsednik and there are many lingering questions about Willie. If we picked up Polanco, we could have adequate insurance for both... heck Polanco may even be a starter. If Willie faulters (or fails to win the job in spring training), Polanco could step in. If Podsednik faulters, Willie goes out to the outfield and Polanco goes in to 2B. He could probably be had for $3 million per year but let's say 4. So in grand total the Sox's payroll ends at $72 million. That's perfectly reasonable and is a price that maybe even Reinsdorf would approve. That would leave our lineup looking like this:
Podsednik .275 (.290 wishful) 65 SB .340 OBP (.355)
Harris/Polanco .275/.290 30 SB/15 SB .350 OBP/.345 OBP
Rowand .300 100 RBI 30 homers 20 SB .360 OBP
Thomas/Everett .270/.270 35 homers/25-30 homers 100RBI .400 OBP/.350 OBP
Dye .270-.280 110 RBI 30 homers .340-.350 OBP
Pierzynski .290-.300 70-80 RBI .350 OBP
Gload .300 (hit .321 last year, get off my back) 100 RBI (off my back) .370 OBP
Uribe .280-.290 25 homers .330 OBP
Crede .260 (.280 finally fulfills potential) 25 homers (low 30's) .320-.330 OBP
Most of these numbers are not career year numbers, these numbers are what these players could actually be counted on to achieve year after year. A decent lineup that could win behind the monster pitching staff we'd have. Not quite as much speed as one could wish for (a la 2003 Marlins) but legitimate stealing threats in Posednik, Harris, Polanco, Rowand, Dye, maybe Uribe. Unfortunately DH, 1B, C, and 3B will be a no go on the basebaths. The Marlins's team (as IS the model for winning with a lower budget than the Yankees) had speed even at catcher (I-Rod) and 1B (D Lee). Obviously this lineup hinges on the recoveries of Thomas, Everett, and Dye and the potential of Harris and Podsednik (although Polanco could be used to replace either), Gload, Crede, etc. There are ALOT of question marks here, but that's the kind of risk you have to take when you aren't willing to spend enough money. At least there wouldn't be any questions with the pitching... something we haven't had in a looong time. Overall I'd say it's a definite downgrade in offense... regardless of the balance or not... we will not score as many runs... we may score more evenly however and our pitching will keep us in EVERY game. Great defense too.
Sorry my first post was so long... but there was alot of stuff I wanted to get out there after reading this forum for the past week. You may now begin your rebuttals.
