Cknolls

Don't work for corporate America, just sit on their Board of Directors and earn the really easy money...TREE HOUSE FOODS. How much did they pay you Michelle?

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 25, 2008 -> 09:44 AM) What's interesting is the video at the bottom of the article quotes a message board post bragging about how a guy commented out loud at polling place that he was switching to mess with the democrats. Track down the user name, and who it is registered to and you have a case. Track it to him listening to the pill pusher and you have aiding criminal activity. How do you prove that he actually voted for her? Voting records are private, right?

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 25, 2008 -> 08:37 AM) Rove has a major analyst roll with Faux News. Very Olbermannesque of you.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 24, 2008 -> 04:29 PM) How does Pat retain his job at MSNBC? He is MSNBC's answer to balance. Liberal network token conservative. Oh yeah, Tucker too, if you can find him now that his show was cancelled.

A large butterfly just went up in MER betting the stock goes to $30 by APR. expiration. APR. 30 puts have traded 62,000 contracts against opewn interest of 19,700. Volatility is in the 200's.

MER may take an add'l. 10-12 bliion in write downs.

One step closer to nationalization.. OFHEO reduces capital requirements for GSE's. to 20% from 30%.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 18, 2008 -> 03:25 PM) The fundementals aren't good, there really isn't any "good" news right now, and this is a huge rally in a legitmate Bear market. Right. As I have said before, the sharpest rallies occur in bear markets. Another fun Turn-Around Tuesday.

What does the world need? Lower mortgage rates. What is the world getting today? Higher mortgage rates. Treasuries and MBS are getting hammered post Fed.

QUOTE(kapkomet @ Mar 18, 2008 -> 02:25 PM) Yea, I just read the article. If LEH would have given a s***ty report this morning, you bet it would have been 100 BPS. But IN MY OPINION LEH is lying their asses off. I'll just leave that where it is. ^^^^^^. And MER C MS JPM BAC GS. 74 of 80 AAA Bonds in the ABX Indexes fail tests for investment grade. Why is it so important to know that the AAA ABX are really junk? AAA 2007 ABX trades around 56 cents on the dollar. The market is clearly telling us that by marking these down 44% from 100, the underlying loans are not performing, which is indeed the case. So what happens when S&P, Fitch or Moody's gets with the program and marks down all this garbage to BBB? Or less? Well, BBB- ABX trades at 9 CENTS on the dollar. Thats why it matters.. And why is LEH crowing about owning lota of AAA stuff? That is why it matters

The financial world is going through a massive de-leveraging process, right? So how does LEH do it? The lever their books to an all-time high of 31.7 to 1. I am a seller of LEH. They are the next to go, maybe Barclay's?...I still want to know how much level 3 garbage is still on thheir sheets. And where did they mark that garbage? Only when these guys actually mark their bonds to market will we see a bottom IMO. It may also result in a few less firms on the street.

I have to believe that the futures will test the weekly lows again. My guess is if they break 1279.25, hello 74.00. LEH will be the next up to get hit with the ugly stick.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 14, 2008 -> 12:05 PM) How's this for financial planning? I moved out here in 2003, looked at the housing market, said to myself "There's no way this market is going to survive where it currently is" so I decided to rent instead of trying to invest in a condo. I've spent several tens of thousands in rent to live out here for several years...but looking at the median house price graph for this region, if I'd bought a condo 4 years ago, and was still holding it today, I'd have essentially no equity because all the money I'd have spent on paying down the mortgage would have been wiped out entirely by the price drop that's happened so far, and I'd be trying to sell the place to avoid being stuck in the "loan is more expensive than the condo" mess that people are getting in. Any additional price drop beyond about this point (and believe me, there will be more) would have knocked it down to the point where I'd have lost more money than what I've lost by renting for several years. The only way I could have done better would have been to buy a place in 04 and sell in 06, but that'd have been me gambling on being able to pick out the market peak before it cratered. One of the best trades I have seen today.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 14, 2008 -> 09:22 AM) Actually this is going to be way worse, because Japan had no inflation. And their personal savimgs rate was /is through the roof. Ours is in the sub-basement.

CPI unch'd. OOOOKKKKKKK! Lower away BOOM BOOM! Looks like the gov't. is trying their damndest to keep BSC from falling into the mid 20's. SOLD!

Another thing with respect to the Fed's action yesterday. What does this action do to small and medium sized banks whose problems are not in the AAA mortgage backed securities they hold (or in these banks cases don't hold). The problems for small and medium sized banks is their loan portfolios, and none of the Fed's actions yesterday addressed troubled loans.

Is the Fed is debasing the dollar into a rally? Certainly looks that way. This latest action will fail too, I believe. Why? Well the Fed only had $825 billion in marketable securities and they have already used up $436 billion. They are like a guy standing on a beach with a sand bucket and an umbrella to stop a tsunami. Yes, spreads got tighter, relative to 10 year bonds, but you have to sell this move because they will widen again and you don't want to drown in the tsunami, do you? AMEX just announced a 10 year "benchmark" deal supposedly +325. More supply is coming, save your cash.

QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Mar 12, 2008 -> 09:34 AM) He was in private practice for a while, and (from Wikipedia) that was after he made his bones on the Gambinos, so he presumably got some coin for that. Add in family wealth, and I'm sure he can spare $5k here and there. His father is worth several hundred million.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 11, 2008 -> 02:15 PM) Who is the third candidate - Edwards? And I honestly can't tell for sure which is which. I assume Obama is the renegade, Clinton is Renaissance, and Edwards Evergreen. Is that the case? I wonder what Richardson was, and what the GOP candidates were. Sorry, Renaissance is Michelle Obama. Barack is Renegade. Hillary is Evergreen.

THE SCRIPT Mr. Spitzer (voice-over): “Recently my running mate, David Paterson, and I toured the school he attended as a child, walking past the very same hall signs he did 40 years ago. You begin your journey on Trustworthy Turnpike, make a left past Honesty Road, turn down Integrity Lane and eventually, if you’ve walked the right way, end up on Responsibility Road. Starting in January, we’ll be leading our state government on the same journey. And we’re going to make it all the way to the end.” This is priceless!

"Renegade" "Renaissance" "Evergreen" These are the Secret Service names for the Dem. candidates, save Bubba. No word on McCain's nickname. Nor Bubba's. I wonder if Obama likes Styx. I know Hillary loves Babs.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 11, 2008 -> 09:46 AM) Random thoughts. Something I learned from the concrete industry that carries over to oil. We're using both faster than the earth can resupply. Therefor, the folks that own cement and oil, own as much as they ever will. It is just a matter of how fast they want to sell it. Why bust your ass in production just to lower prices? Work 8-5 M-F and not worry about it. Electric cars move the point of pollution from the cars to the electric plant. I know no one was touting the environmental impact but wanted to toss it out there. Anyone know if the taxes on fuel are percentages or exact cost per gallon? Perhaps consumers should be talking to our elected representatives to lower them taxes. Well lucky people here in Illinois get to pay both taxes.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Mar 11, 2008 -> 07:53 AM) By the way, this story broke on the New York Times website. Damn liberal media. Oh wait. Actually I believe the reporter from the NBC station was the one who has been working this story since last Thurs. He said it started as an IRS money laundering investigation and progressed to the U.S Attorney's office and the FBI. This iin turn led to the wiretaps and Spitzer. I would think he is indicted on several felony counts if he does not step down. BTW, did anyone see Ken Langone on CNBC this morning. He being the founder of Home Depot and a member of the NYSE board who voted for Grasso's pay package. He said, "We all have our personal HELL'S, but I hope his is hottest." Down goes Silver Spoon Spitzer!

NICE!!!

CDS" on all brokers are blowing out, especially LEH and BSC. LEH reportedly has two times the capital in CMBS and nearly five times the capital in "Hard to Price" securities, i.e. hard to sell. BSC is in even worse shape. CDS on LEH is now approximately 250 basis points and 350 basis points on BSC, out nearly 100 basis points in a month. These firms are basically insolvent. If they are forced to sell, look out below.