WCSox

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 08:57 PM) On the other hand though...they have genuine reason to be excited about that other OF. So if you're a GM, you be a bit nervous, but you talk to your scouts, you talk to your doctors, and maybe you're the team that has a chance to steal a legit talent. Yeah, that's possible as well. It's also possible that the Rays just want to get a feel for what Upton's worth right now.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 08:45 PM) Even still Upton's ceiling is amazing. I'd give up a hell of a lot to bring a guy like him in. I'm sure that some GM would give up a lot (Sabean comes to mind). Like I said above, I think it's really odd that they'd shop him (1) coming off of a really bad season and (2) when he's arb-eligible for three more years. After thinking about it, I strongly suspect that their front office leaked this info on purpose to put a fire under Upton's ass.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 08:17 PM) Getz and Upton? Really? QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 07:07 PM) My point is that Upton is having a Getz-like year, not that he has Chris Getz's ceiling.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 07:31 PM) Plus...that seems to be a weird injury he's having, or at least it's really hurting his game and he's not recovering well from it. Either way, if I were the Rays, I'd move one of them. If I'm ready to give up on Upton, I move him and shoot for a pitcher or a AA level outfielder. Someone will gamble on him (They got Garza for Delmon "Hell of a bat throw at that Ump" Young). If I think this was just an injury down year and he'll be back next ST where he was in the 2008 playoffs, then move crawford, bring the kid up, and try to reload with a AAA pitcher and a new closer. I agree about the injury effect being odd. I'd probably move Crawford at this point, UNLESS they're convinced that Upton is just a complete whack-job and lack confidence in him getting back to form next year. They'd have a smaller market for Upton that would drive down the bidding war, but there's always that one GM who will bite. If I were a GM, I'd be suspicious of the Rays unloading Upton after a down year and surgery. He's arb-eligible through 2012, and would have significant trade value for the next couple of years. I'd suspect that Upton was damaged goods (either physically or mentally). I wonder if the Rays intentionally leaked the news about Upton being on the block to serve as a "motivating factor."

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 07:06 PM) And Upton...I'm kinda worried he'll never get to where he's supposed to be, and will wind up being a fringey player watching his brother kill the league. But we'll see. I think that a lot of GMs agree. If Upton had Jeter's attitude on the field, they'd probably be less concerned about Upton's current OPS+ of 74 (which probably has at least something to do with the fact that he went under the knife 10 1/2 months ago). But Upton's lackadaisical playing style is likely going to give some GMs pause. At the very least, they'd probably want to see what he'll do next year before giving up a king's ransom for him.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 07:05 PM) Getz has 2 bombs, 18 db's an 2 3b's, and. Upton has 10 bombs, 31 db's and 3 3b's. See the difference? Yeah, one has a lot more power. But we already knew that. My point is that Upton is having a Getz-like year, not that he has Chris Getz's ceiling.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 06:58 PM) Don't be such a stat whore. Don't get mad at me because you didn't bother to look at Upton's numbers this year. When did I ever claim that? Instead of inventing desperate straw man arguments to save face, why don't you just admit that you weren't aware that Upton is having a terrible year? They'd get a lot less right now than they'd get after Upton rebounded.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 06:40 PM) GMAB. Don't compare Upton and f***in' Getz. Yeah, it would be really silly of me to compare f***in' Upton to f***in' Getz... B.J. Upton this year: .238 BA, .308 OBP, .670 OPS Chris Getz this year: .261 BA, .324 OBP, .670 OPS They would be incredibly dumb to trade him when he's hitting like Chris Getz, as they'd almost certainly get more next winter.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 06:29 PM) I don't believe for a second he has low value. At his age/cost/potential he would command a pretty hefty haul. Have you looked at his numbers this season? He's hitting like Chris Getz. They'd be smart to wait until he bounces back from shoulder surgery and has a better year, where they'll be able to get a lot more for him.

QUOTE (striker62704 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 03:04 PM) The problem with getting Crawford is that you have the same problem in 2010 as you did in 2009, you get a runner on base ('09=Pods) but you can't get him in. Our production in the#3 and #4 slots in the lineup were pathetic. With 6 games left we have ZERO players with 90 RBI! 90!! Not 120, not 110, not 100 but 90! That is horrible. Beckham, Quentin, and Paulie would be hitting behind Crawford. Those guys have been known to drive in runs. The problem with this team isn't an inability to drive in runs. It's that the runs are being driven in by an aging lineup that can't do it consistently. If you sign a guy like Abreu or Matsui, you run the same risk of this player tanking like Dye did this year, or having a down year like Dye did in '07, or an injury-plagued year like Konerko had in '08. I agree that a traditional high-OPS #4 power hitter would be the best fit for the Sox. But who is actually going to be available? I'd love for the Sox to sign Jason Bay this off-season. But that's not going to happen. I'd love for them to make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez. That's not going to happen either. But Crawford might actually be available for the right price right now. And if the Sox can get a solid OBP guy who can lead off (a spot that's been a black hole for several years now) and steal a crapload of bases, I say go for it. They can sign a power hitter next winter, or dangle Hudson for a guy like Ethier in July.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 02:44 PM) Yes, we'll have to agree to disagree. My guess is that the Sox aren't going to have a lot of money to play with over the offseason and in fact I wouldn't be entirely shocked if we went into 2010 with about a $95M payroll with very large salaries committed to several players. And it's not like I don't like Crawford, but I think we need to look for the most economical solutions. Dealing Jenks and Paulie however would free up some money, but I can't see us trading Paulie without taking on another bad contract or eating salary. Linebrink's $5M in 2010 and $5.5M in 2011 really complicates matters. Like I said earlier, dumping Jenks' 2010 salary would pay for most of Crawford's 2010 salary, so it wouldn't really be a massive increase in 2010 payroll. But the overall value of an extended contract for Crawford would be significant. I agree that there's no way that we trade Paulie. We need his OPS. I'm pretty sure that Ethier and Gonzalez aren't going anywhere, and we'll easily get outbid for Bay. Hell, we might be forced to put Nix into the every-day lineup next year and hope that his per-game power numbers from this year translate into 20-30 HRs next season.

I agree that Getz *might* eventually be a solid leadoff hitter, but it's way too early to tell. Crawford is an overwhelmingly safer option, and I don't think that Getz's ceiling is anywhere near Crawford's current skill set. The point about Crawford's salary is a good one, and a reasonable point of contention. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 02:15 PM) I think we have enough speed and contact as it as and now we need some more thunder. I'd like a better mix of both. We've been too heavy on the "thunder" side over the past few years and the lack of a balanced offensive approach has let us down in two of the past three seasons. At the very least, if we MUST go with more "thunder," we need to avoid aging players like Abreu and Matsui.

QUOTE (BaseballNick @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 01:32 PM) The stock market can be looked at as a leading indicator of the economy. By the start of next season, things project to be a lot better than 2009 Greater investment in the markets doesn't mean much if the unemployment rate is at almost 10% and still rising. People who are out of work or are in fear of losing their jobs tend to not spend money on extras like baseball tickets. You're also not accounting for the inflation that will hit in another year or so after all of the excess money that the Fed has printed over the past year and a half floods the market. The current interest rates are so low that the Fed can't lower them further to fight the impending inflation. In addition, our over-dependence on investment from overseas (especially China) will mandate that interest rates will increase, which will further weaken the economy. These two factors very well may trigger another recession in 2011.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 01:22 PM) In Crawford's 8-year career he has only gotten on base at a .350+ clip twice (.355 in '07, .367 in '09) and has a career .335 OBP. Recent stats are more relevant, especially when you're looking at a player who began his big-league career at age 20 and was playing full-time at age 21. Crawford's OBP steadily increased over his first three years as a full-time player. His most recent years... 2006: .348 OBP, 58 SB (at age 24!) 2007: .355 OBP, 50 SB 2008: .319 OBP, 25 SB in 109 games (injured after the ASB, played hurt down the stretch and into the playoffs) 2009: .367 OBP, 59 SB Clearly, Crawford is good for roughly a .350 OBP and 50 SB per year right now. Crawford will likely replicate an average of 2006, 2007, and 2009 next year, which is pretty good for a leadoff hitter. I've always liked Getz, but I still see little evidence that he'll be able to get on base as much as Crawford. And if he does, it'll likely be a few years from now, when Buehrle and possibly other key players are no longer on the roster. If the Sox are in "win now" mode and have a shot at Crawford, I say go for it. Getz's stolen base percentage is indeed impressive and it's a strong argument for him. But it's also based on a relatively small sample size and will likely decrease somewhat over time (as his minor league numbers indicate). No, Crawford would play LF (he's already indicated that he doesn't want to play CF) and Rios would stay in CF. Quentin would move to RF. Crawford is a massive upgrade over Quentin/Pods in LF. Dumping Jenks' salary would pay for 2/3 of Crawford's yearly contract. I don't know if Crawford is "worth" $9.6M per year, but the bottom line is that he provides the Sox with several skills that the current roster cannot bring to the table. These include the ability to lead off, the ability to provide an OBP of .350 or higher (Paulie is the only other one of the roster who does it routinely), the ability to steal 50 bases, and a significant defensive upgrade in LF. This sounds more like wishful thinking. Getz has in no way demonstrated that he'll be able to hit as well as Crawford over a full season (or well enough to beat out Nix, for that matter). I also doubt that Getz will steal as many bases as Crawford next year. Entrusting next year's leadoff spot to Getz seems dubious at best. If I have the ability to trade for Crawford AND get him to sign an extension without dealing Hudson, I do it. Getz is a nice player and all, but he's no Carl Crawford.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 12:32 PM) The economy is improving Not really. The markets are improving, but unemployment is still on the rise. Ticket sales will be determined by the latter.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Sep 28, 2009 -> 12:13 PM) I wouldn't deal any of those guys for Crawford. He's a great player and is certainly worth top talent, but I don't see Crawford as a guy who would put us over the top at all. He'd help us on defense, but we could find other, cheaper options to do that. He would add a lot of speed and contact, but I think we've already got enough of that right now. We don't need 50SB to win the division, and if we want SB, Rios and Getz in a good year under Ozzie can each take 30+. Alexei could take a few too if he improves his baserunning, plus Nix can steal a few, same with Beckham if the situations are right, etc. The biggest asset speed gives you is the ability to score from second on a single or from first on a double, and we've got guys that can do that now. I disagree. The Sox have lacked speed for a while, and have gone with hit-or-miss sluggers over high-OBP contact hitters for far too long. They're also in desperate need of a .350+ OBP leadoff hitter and a better defensive outfield. Crawford addresses both needs and steals 50+ bases per year, to boot. Rios and Alexei are never going to get on base enough to lead off and Getz has yet to show that ability either. IF Kenny could get Crawford to sign a three-year extension as part of a trade not involving Hudson, he should pull the trigger. The problem with guys like Abreu and Matsui (and Thome) is that you're getting these on the down-slopes of their careers. Abreu obviously still has some left in the tank, but his OPS+ has fallen over the past five years and is currently at a "meh" 113. Crawford, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career and will do a lot more for the Sox over the next 3-4 years than somebody like Abreu.

Considering that the Sox have been a huge disappointment this year and that people have been losing their jobs left and right, I'd say that 2.28 million isn't that bad.

I wouldn't trade Hudson. But if they want a catcher, I'd deal Flowers, Jenks, and another minor league pitcher for Crawford, contingent upon a contract extension for the latter.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 08:31 PM) No, but our opening day CF wouldn't have been Wise and our 4-5 wouldn't of been both Colon and Contreras We still would've had Contreras as our #5, and Vazquez would've predictably crapped his pants if we ended up contending down the stretch. I'm not a fan of Rios' contract, but I like going into 2010 with Peavy and Rios a hell of a lot more than I would've with Vazquez and Swisher.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 07:57 PM) I guess what I'm getting at, is he might be so stupid, that he actually thinks this is a good deal for the sox. Wow, huh? He's not stupid at all. He's using the Jay Moronotti "shock jock" approach to sports journalism. Since Hineybird left town, somebody else must step up to tap the Moron Sports Fan demographic.

QUOTE (picktoclick @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 07:16 AM) Bj Upton might be available and TB needs relief pitching and catcher. I'd package Jenks and Flowers for Upton and play him in CF and leadoff. Rios in right and a healthy Quentin in left and we would have a decent outfield defense and wouldn't need pods. Upton's having a terrible year, likely due to recent shoulder surgery. Even if his shoulder fully recovers, you still have to deal with his immaturity and lack of focus. I realize that Upton's ceiling is extremely high, but his three full seasons in the bigs have resulted in OPS+ of 136, 107, and 74 (in that order). If Upton was having a year like last season, I'd do this deal in a second. But now, I'm very hesitant.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 12:50 PM) Pods is NOT a stopgap anywhere. Putting Pods in LF with CQ in RF is going to make us swiss cheese defensively, and even that's probably a better option than Pods in CF with Rios in RF. Agreed about Pods, but I have no problem with Quentin in RF. He played there in Arizona, and is an upgrade over Dye. At the very least, I don't think that he'll be any worse than Maggs was.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 12:29 PM) Football and Baseball are radically different sports. Swish plays in a sport where he depends on his own talent, not that of a QB throwing him a ball. Moss was a perennial Pro Bowler in Minnesota (even after Cris Carter and Robert Smith retired), with Daunte Culpepper's suck ass throwing him the ball. Surely, Kerry Collins wasn't a huge step down from Culpepper? Moss' numbers tanked in Oakland because he quit playing. He even said it himself: "Why should I try, when nobody else is?" Similarly, Swish quit on the Sox last year. Instead of working with Walker when he slumped, he decided to sit on the bench, sulk, and draw the ire of his manager. Just like Moss wasn't going to work out in Oakland, Swish wasn't going to work out in Chicago. You can't look at a player in Situation A and conclude that his numbers will be similar in Situation B. Unlike video games, work environments in the real world matter.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 12:14 PM) I’m not sure how big of an assumption it would be to think Swish would bounce back this year considering, you know, HE’S BOUNCING BACK, RIGHT NOW. Different work environments = different results. By your logic, Randy Moss should've been a stud in Oakland. How'd that work out?

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Sep 27, 2009 -> 08:33 AM) Most people on Soxtalk, myself included, would say it's good that Swisher didn't pay attention to Walker. And whatever happened to Walker not messing with vets. It appears in Swisher's case, he does. When you hit .219, you've need to work with the hitting coach. Even if you're a veteran.