[Podsednik's Poor Defense]

If by terrific you mean atrocious, then yes, I couldn't agree more.

 

Lol, his Fielding Runs Above Average last season was +11 in LF. He's perfect for out there.

[Podsednik's Poor Defense]

Yea, this season he's been struggling on the defensive end, but I wouldn't panic.

 

LF is an easy position to play and he was TERRIFIC there last season.

[Dayn Perry Does it Again]

My hope is that the rise in BABIB will be offset by more strikeouts. Pitcher BABIP is a pretty nuanced point if I remember correctly. A couple of Hard Ball Times articles dealt with the topic this summer, and I believe left the possibility open that there is more than just "luck" involved for certain pitchers.

 

Well thats my point.

 

Even if he's really had high K rates the past few games, his overall K rate is still relatively low, and he's still pitching for contact. If your pitching for contact, the chances of your BABIP increasing are much better than a power pitcher.

[Dayn Perry Does it Again]

Lol, thats not such an asshole remark.

 

Right now Jose's been getting it done, but he'll probably regress a bit.

 

For those of you unfamilar with the stat BABIP, or Matting Average of Balls into Play, is the numbers of batted balls into the playing field that go for hits. Mainly a luck stat. Completley dependant on defense or whether a hitter gets lucky and finds "holes" when batting.

 

The league average BABIP is about .290. BABIP's abnormally low will usually regress to the mean over a season, and a pitcher's H/9 will escalate, and consequently, usually a pitchers ERA. Vice Versa when it comes to abnormally high BABIP.

 

Keep in mind this is a *luck* stat that fluctuates year after year. One season a pitcher could have the lowest BABIP in the league and the next year, he could have the highest. It happens quite often too.

 

Jose's BABIP right now is 0.244. Very low, and too low to sustain over a season. That number is going to climb around the .290 mark soon, and we'll see an increase in H/9, and probably ERA becuase of it. Not trying to shoot down anyone's hopes, but Greg Maddux was in the same situation when he was 5-0. His BABIP was EXTREMELY Low, it rose and because of it, his numbers did too. He's nothing more than a #3 starter on most teams now.

 

Not saying Jose is a #3 starter, but sustaining a sub-3 ERA when his BABIP is going to regress will be VERY TOUGH.

[SS Help]

IF.

 

Until then, burn this thread down.

 

ESPECIALLY is they key word.

 

Even if his bat continues to hit lightly, his contract is still worth his production.

[SS Help]

In 2007, he's making 5.25 million. 2008, 6.5 million. 2009, 7.25 million. 2010, team option for 8.4 million (0.6 million buyout)

 

And thats NOT expensive at all.

 

Every year contracts are going to increase. Money will come in larger sums and so will the length of deals.

 

You do realize 2-way SS who provide offense and defense don't exist in baseball outside of a few players (Tejada, Jeter, etc.)

 

He's a guy who can hit and especially Field.

 

In 2004 his wins above replacment player (WARP) was 7.2 wins. Last season it was 5.3.

 

Uribe's has been 4.9 consistently and he's due for a huge decrease already this season.

 

Money isn't an issue anymore. We have the 4th highest payroll in baseball. The difference between Juan and Jack this season is already shaping out to be 4 to 5 wins in the standing.

 

For an extra 4 to 5 wins, I'l pay whatever it takes.

[Carlos Lee??]

Carlos Lee in Milwaukee could get interesting.

 

Word is he likes it there, and they did ante up a pretty big contract to keep Ben Sheets. They are willing to spend, but he's going to get a FAT contract.

 

And he's overrated too. So-So fielder, so-so OBP and SLG numbers. He can hit the homers, but thats about it. I don't want him back, unless its just a rental.

[Russ Ortiz]

He's put up some absoltley PATHETIC peripheral stats over the last year or so. Terrribly low K rates and awfully high BB rates.

 

This guy is garbage, you rbetting off bringing up a AAA vet or a minor league fringe player than adding him.

[CF replacement?]

Suprisingly, BP, haters of all things Sox, say that Brian Anderson is an asset to the Sox even when he hits in the .160's. If his defense remains consistent, this will go in the books as one of the best center field defensive seasons ever.

 

https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5200

 

Better SABR numbers that A-Row put up last season in CF.

[SS Help]

Until you take into effect his contract, which isn't worth those numbers in any way.

 

But you need to look at the position he's playing.

 

SS is considered one of the top 3 toughest positions to play by stathead standards.

 

This guy SAVES is team 11 runs above average (FRAA) what an average SS would save a team. Uribe doesn't even sniff that territory.

 

His production at SS is good too. Above average for sure.

 

4.9 million isn't much for his prodcution, ESPECIALLY if he reverts to 2004 form.

[Who would you Rather have win]

exactly what Im thinking. It's not like we are in late september.

 

I don't give a damn. You know what 3 games in the standings means.

 

I have news for you guys, this team is a REPLICA of what we were last season. Pitching is coming strong from the starters and bullpen, very strong.

 

They're not scoring all that much either, like us. But they're pitching and that cannot be subsided.

 

Not trying to question your reasons as to rooting for the Cubs or not, but I'm meerly pointing out that EVERY GAME MATTERS.

[Who would you Rather have win]

Why are so many Sox fans hateful toward the Cubs?

 

Hey they suck, we know it so do they. We won the WS, we know so do they. They're not going to win with bonehead Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker, we know and so do they.

 

So whats the point of hating them?

 

Anyway, under NO CIRCUMSTANCES would I root for Detriot this season. And when the Cubs play the Twinkies and Tribe, I'll be rotting for the Northsiders again.

[SS Help]

You'll be hearing the name Cesar Izturis at some point too, but I don't see Izturis or Wilson to be any better than Cintron is, plus both are paid hansomely I believe. No thanks.

 

Izturis isn't any better than Uribe with the bat really. Last season he was .257/.302/.322 which blows and is probably around the neighborhood Uribe is going to sniff. Great glove, but Juan's glove is just as good. Thier a wash.

 

Wilson on the other hand is smething I'd like to have if he can return to that 2004 form. He hit 308/.335/.459, solid for a SS, and played GREAT defense, better than Juan.

[Outfield Posibilities]

If he proves he can stay healthy and KC ends up willing to deal within the division what do you guys think of DeJesus?

 

I'ds take him. Legitimate defense for a CF, one of the toughest positions to play, showing good discipline with power increasing yearly.

 

Problem is he's cheap, young and productive. He's probably thier best trading chip if the decide to put him on the market. Chances of us overpaying along with the chances of them trading to a division rival are slim.

[Outfield Posibilities]

I was surfing a few sites today and ran into a few interesting names that might be able to help out in the outfield. The possible CF's were Ryan Freel, Joey Gathright, Juan Pierre, and Torii Hunter. Possible LF's were Alfonso Soriano, Luis Gonzalez, Pat Burrell, and Raul Ibanez.

 

Personally, I find Ryan Freel the most interesting name on the board. His average isn't the best right now but he will steal a good amount of bags. Plus he can play CF, 2B, and 3B. He can also leadoff (as he does in Cincy) if Pods needs a day off. You might say we already have a player like him in Ozuna, but every play in the outfield is an adventure with him. I'm not sure of his contract status, but he's a young guy that the might be able to sign if needed (ex. Dye doesn't resign). Who do you guys think would be a good fit out of these candidates?

 

Let's see here......

 

Ryan Freel wouldn't be all that bad. He's more of a super-utility man, but better than the crap in CF right now. He's getting on base and taking some walks, but you want someone slugging more than a career mark of .384. I'm sick of punch and run singles hitters.

 

Joey Gathright is even worse. No plate discipline and no power. For his career, he's struggled to stay above the .600 OPS mark. I don't care how fast he is, when you can't hit and can't get on base, your useless end of story.

 

Juan Pierre sucked in FLA, sucks with the Cubs and will suck untill he retires. Screw him.

 

Hunter would be nice, but I don't eant to commit long-term. He's a good glove, but no hit CF really. His bat is an upgrade over what we have now, but it certianly isn't real good by any strecth.

 

Alfonso Soriano is having the season of his career. He's still not walking or getting on base, but he's slugging and hitting for a s***load of power. For the right price, I'd gladly welcome him.

 

No thanks to Gonzo.

 

I like Burrell. Ignore the fact that he strikes out quite a bit and realize he still hits for power, still walks 80-90 times a season and gets on base too. He'd be a nice addition out there and he's undervalued too.

[Jermaine Dye should hit third]

Batting order isn't exactly the most important of aspects when talking about an efficent offense. It does matter, but shuffling your 3-4-5 hitters will make a minimal difference if any.

 

That being said I'm fine with the way everything is now, but I wouldn't mind seeing Dye-Thome-Konerko

 

Dye would be a great #3 hitter. Highest ISO (Isolated Power which is SLG-BA, great indicator of true power) on the team at 0.349. Thome at #4 becuase he's still getting on base and hitting for more power then Konerko. Konerko at #5, becuase as of now, Dye and Thome are having better seasons.

 

Changing the hitters would only make a small difference, but I'm not against the idea at all.