SABR Sox

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Sep 12, 2007 -> 11:09 PM) 1 week is going to give KW confidence? KW put together a horrible team, but don't mistake him as an idiot. Last time I checked the Sox brought Scott Podsednik back last winter. If Williams is capable of making a move like that, there's a chance Uribe is brought back too.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus thinks Kershaw is the best left-handed pitching prospect in the game. Let's be reasonable here, Colletti is a guy that isn't afraid to trade a good prospect for a veteran, but Kershaw seems VERY VERY unlikely.

QUOTE(IamPabloOzuna @ Apr 29, 2007 -> 11:46 PM) please tell me im not the only one who doesnt like this idea...the kid needs to start, hes fire...electric...absolutely unhittable Lincecum should have started the season as the #5. Either him or Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants are just stupid. The based everything of Spring Statistics and Ortiz had a pretty good spring. It won't be long until Lincecum is in the rotation.

As soon as Russ Ortiz does the annual Russ Oritz blowup.

I think PECOTA is overrating the age-factor here a bit too much. This is probably the main reason as to why the Sox are projected to finish 72-90. You have Thome finishing with less than 30 homers, J.D. losing about 3 wins with bat alone, Crede taking a huge step back too. They rave about have the "old-ness" of Thome, Contreras, Dye, etc. is going to catch up to them this year and how we'll see massive declines. I forsee declines, especially in the cases of Thome and Dye, but not to PECOTA's extent. Another thing that bugged me a bit was the projection of some of our BP guys. Aardsma, Sisco, Masset, the new young guns we acquired have terrible projections, but I tend to stick with the scouts opinion on this one. While nither of those guys have had great statistical track records they are young and have potential. I think we'll see better out of out 'pen that PECOTA projects. Overall, I'd be willing to bet we win at least 6 or 7 more games. Anything more and you might be pushing it. I like us, but not that much.

They probably have the best rotation in that division, but a lot of concern is still placed on that offense. The potential is there though. Weeks, Fielder, and Braun (who should be up at some point next season), all have the ability to produce at above average rates a their respective positions. Hall should regress a bit, but should still be a damn good centerfielder. I'd keep an eye out for Corey Hart too. .280/.360/.500 isn't out of the question for him. They have a DEEP bench too. Gabe Gross, Brady Clark, Koskie/Bell (if Braun gets called up), Mench could form the N.L.'s deepest bench. Sheets is a huge wildcard here. I think he's the best pitcher in that division (better than Carp, Zambrano, Oswalt, etc.) if he makes 30+ starts. Bullpen concerns me a bit, but you have to love the upside. If Turnbow bounces back he could from a nasty 1-2 punch with Francisco Cordero at the back end of that pen.

i like it.

QUOTE(fathom @ Dec 6, 2006 -> 10:00 PM) I think we should use the freed up money to get a power hitting left fielder!!!! Two Words: Barry Bonds.

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Dec 3, 2006 -> 06:37 PM) You can have your young pitching and prospects. You seem to love those prospects. I'll take the guy who is almost without question the greatest player still in the game (you can make an argument for very few players over him). Yea, I'm starting to think if people have forgotton A-Rod is probably the best player in the game and has a great chance of being the best ever when he hangs it up. This deal is a no-brainer. Thank Yanks be dumb enough to trade him for Garcia + Crede and it will certianly take more, but depending on who else the Yanks would command, I would go the extra-mile to put Rodriguez on our team.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Nov 27, 2006 -> 10:31 PM) ......6 GS. That's Jaret Wright territory. Of course, my post wasn't meant to be taken entirely serious. Jason, the Sox don't need to send Buehrle or any of their veteran pitchers to winterball because they are well established. If I had my choice I would send McCarthy to winterball unless he, the scouts, and Cooper feel he has more than enough time in Spring Training to become a starting pitcher again. I'm not entirely against getting Santana, but I'm sick of people undervaluing Garcia (especially with this market) and thinking Santana is a lock for Cy Young an/or 22 wins(yes people have made these claims.) Honestly, Santana looks like another guy who opens a lot of our eyes because he punks the Sox but has stats that tell another story. What good is a guy if he can only pitch in one stadium in the MLB, and that stadium isn't on the South Side? What good is a guy if he can't go 4 innings against any of division rivals, including the Royals? I'm not completely writing him off because he has shown some great signs of brillance (usually at home or against the Sox,) and he is cheap and under control until 2012. But its only 6 games. That's another sample size. I don't give up on SP's that easily. Just me though.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Nov 27, 2006 -> 10:05 PM) Santana @ ballparks in the AL Central (just for fun): 6 GS, 24.1 IP, 1-3, 8.14 ERA, 1.93 WHIP 24.1 IP's.............

QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Nov 27, 2006 -> 01:00 PM) The Hard Ball Times lauds Young for his increasing contact rate, flawless CF defense, and steady power and patience at the plate. They argue as a premium CF, he might be baseball's most valuable prospect. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...at-chris-young/ Those projections for 2007 hurt to look at...250/330/500 with 21SB Wanna know whats even worse. Before last season even started, PECOTA saw Young as the NL's 5th best CF acccorind to VORP. BEFORE LAST YEAR. We f***ed up.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Nov 26, 2006 -> 09:02 PM) Combine any offense in the top ten with good pitching and you'll be in october. Our offense is fine. We need to upgrade the pitching staff, the bullpen for this year and the rotation for the future. Nobody is arguing this.

QUOTE(beck72 @ Nov 26, 2006 -> 11:46 AM) By your logic, a team's best hitter should then hit leadoff because he'll have the most PA's, regardless of power numbers, speed, OBP? A team needs a mix of hitters [esp. the sox] or they'll be too much like the 2000-2004 sox, a station to station softball team that's susceptible to slumps and overly reliant on the long ball for scoring runs. I don't thake the notion that far. Usually your most productive hitters hit in the 3-5 sports and they should stay there. However a quality player should hit in the one-spot. Unfortunatley Scott Podsednik isn't (and never really was) a quality hitter. I don't want to get into the 00-04 Sox teams either. Most of those teams were good offensive teams if I recall correctly. You don't need speed and "mixture" of hitter to win. You simply need guys that are going to get on base and guys that'll hit for power. Yankees and Red Sox offenses, nothing wrong with 'em. Combine those offenses with good pitching and your chances of making it into October are pretty damn good. I agree with the first sentance, which is simply why I don't want Scott Podsednik leading off. I'd like a little bit of everything on top. Power, and even a little speed and decent walking ability. Since thier walk percentages are virtually a wash, one has to choose between a lot of speed, or power. The decision is oh so simple in my mind. Iguchi has better OBP's too. And al I'm suggesting is that they give it a shot. Who knows if an opportunity comes along to upgrade at LF and replace Pods with a more powerful type bat Iguchi could end up in the one hole next year. Doubtful, but I'd like it.

QUOTE(beck72 @ Nov 25, 2006 -> 04:52 PM) I think the "plug Iguchi into the leadoff spot" people aren't listening to what the sox have said for a while now. Tad's a 5-7 hole hitter who happens to be the best option the sox have for a #2 hitter. Never has it been talked about him batting leadoff. You're overvaluing the lineup order so terribly. I agree that the big boppers go into the meat of your batting order, but I don't believe you need a good "2-hole hitter" or that "this guy would fit in the 6 spot well." Lineup order is one of the most overrated aspects of baseball. However I do know this. Leadoff hitter see the most PA's in your lineup and Pods doesn't deserve seeing the most PA's, he's just that bad. Iguchi however is a nice little blend of speed, and power. Not meat of the order worthy, but certianly a guy who deserves to go in the batters box the most times in our lineup. It's not absurd suggesting him as our leadoff guy, if anything its a very good idea.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Nov 25, 2006 -> 02:32 PM) If we want a hurt, lefty, lead-off hitter for LF, how about Brad Wilkerson? He might get non-tendered by the Rangers. Fo sho.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Nov 24, 2006 -> 04:19 PM) Konerko > Carlos Lee and now he is a bargain. Ture dat.

QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Nov 24, 2006 -> 09:14 PM) I took a look at some of Pods underlying offensive stats and they actually surprised me a bit. His LD% has steadily been going up which actually means he's becoming a better hitter (literaly) of the ball, however all his other indicators are stagnent or in decline. His ISO is just pathetic -- he's the definition of a "slap" hitter. If you subscribe to the "on year off year" theory I think it's more a case of Pods relying alot on luck with BABIB to drive his batting line. He doesn't take enough walks and he has no power. His BABIB is only good when he's completely healhty and beating out ground balls. But he's almost never completely healthy and he's getting old. Problem is, he still hits a ton of groundballs too. His BABIP was .340 in 2005, which is a bit high considering his LD% was only a shade over 20%. His BABIP should have been a bit higher given his LD% this season, but even with the boost I wouldn't expect anything more than a .280 BA and a .350 OBP. Still would have been better than his .262/.331 line, but his SLG still would have sucked. He was a bit unlucky last season. But whether we have a lucky or unlucky Pods, we still have a piss poor corner OF'er.

QUOTE(chitownsportsfan @ Nov 24, 2006 -> 08:43 PM) Scott Podsednik plays relatively the easiest position on the field, a position where good defense isn't worth that much relative to good offense. While doing this he hits 261/330/353! Not only that, but he plays terrible defense. So he can't hit and he can't field and he's going to cost more than the minimum and he can't stay healthy as well. Why does anyone one want this guy back? I don't know. Some are sold on this "off-year on-year thing" but as far as I'm concered his 2005 season sucked too. .290/.351/.349 from a LF sucks, and even though he stole 59 bases he ws caught 23 times.

He'll like that ballpark. At least hitting there. This move isn't as bad as Soriano, but its not good either.

QUOTE(BHAMBARONS @ Nov 24, 2006 -> 09:52 AM) From Josh B's weekly shows he says that only CY, Drew, Carlos Quentin are the only untouchables. Byrnes seems to want Freddy why I am not sure. Deals that keep coming up are Nippert (Owings), Callaspo for Garcia. Seems like Alberto is blocked here with Hudson, Drew and Tracy. The other player is either Nippert or Owings both names mentioned. Owings I believe will be the better pitcher overall. To Arizona Freddy would be a savior because he would instantly become the #2 starter because of how bad the rest of the staff is. Yea, I'd be nice to acquire one of those guy who aren't untouchables. Thier system is virtually stacked and as you said with the O-Dog blocking Callaspo he could be dealt. Although I remember hearing Hudson could be dealt too, but regardless I wouldn't mind trading with ARI at all.

Hopefully they could take Freddy off our hands if intersted. Plenty of intriguing players as well. There is not shot at re-acquiring Chris Young or trading for Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez. But Alberto Callaspo, Dustin Nippert and Micah Owens are all good prospects worth a SP.

I'm starting to think more and more by the day he is going to start in left next year. Damn.

QUOTE(bschmaranz @ Nov 23, 2006 -> 01:55 AM) What would be more laughable, this deal or the Cubbies throwing 40 million at Vincente Padilla, which I just read (ESPN Insider) is entirely possible. I'd throw $40 million at him than sign Barry Zito in all truthfullness. Padilla isn't anything special, but I actually like him over other options. I for one would take him over Garcia.

I guess I never gave him some consideration considering he was 26 years old and still in A ball, but I continue to hear he has a live arm. I'd hang onto him.