iamshack

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 11:27 AM) Zobrist is an excellent player and the sabermetricians should take credit for him. Is one player enough to justify the hype though? Zobrist was a 6th round draft pick...he's not so much a product of sabermetrics as much as he was a late bloomer.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 11:13 AM) Who are the players that sabremetrics are identifying that scouts aren't? Jeff Keppinger? Wonderful. It's not really that the scouts don't identify them...most players that can play the game decently are going to be noticed by the scouts. The difference is in the fringe and margins. Identifying players that can be make contributions for next to nothing can save a lot of resources over the course of time. Yes, every once in awhile one of these guys will break out and really make hay, but the vast majority of your returns from advanced analysis is going to come from identifying players that can play above replacement value for replacement value or lesser resources.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 11:03 AM) You don't have to make the best out of anything. If Brooks started this than that's pretty dumb on his part. Let's take an old man crazy broadcaster, let him rant and rave and make no sense, and make it a rallying cry. On something that can't be measured, even through the FO disagrees with Hawk too. Adhere to the stupid I guess. That's not what anyone is saying... The rant happened...then it started drawing national attention...then Brian Kenny goes on his own rant and Hawk responds by saying he has always respected him, but agrees to disagree. Kenny, feeling bad, invites Hawk on to make his case. At that point, you saw what was going to happen...it was an opportunity to try and run with it or do nothing and still have it be an embarrassment to the franchise. I don't understand what you think they had to lose by doing this? Every team has their own lame marketing campaigns...if the team wins, the fans buy into it and the players have their own fun with it. If the team sucks or is mediocre, everyone sort of shrugs it off and forgets about it.

I love both of these linebackers we have taken...both are very athletic and smart, smart players.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 10:54 AM) Interesting, had no idea. Seemed to me like an organic response to a hawk rant, but hey, why not preplan something like that. I think it was an organic response that came between the original rant and the interview. There was a week or 10 days between the original rant and the interview, and I don't think you had to be a rocket scientist to see what was going to happen. They made the best of it.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) This exactly, though I think this probably came from Brooks to Hawk and not the other way around. This is a PR guy doing his job, and doing it well. Brooks may have come up with the acronym, but Hawk stated the same thing during the telecast that started all this stuff...I think the way Hawk originally put it was "gimme the guys that want to win." Brooks probably repackaged it for Hawk to deliver during the interview with Brian Kenny and HR.

Sox will to win: 84 Rays will to win: 77

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 10:04 AM) Joe Maddon is a great manager because of David Price, Evan Longoria, James Shields, Matt Moore, BJ Upton. These things don't have to be black and white or mutually exclusive. Joe Maddon can be a great manager because of those guys, and separate and apart from them.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 10:00 AM) I'm sure the Sox are a little perturbed hearing over and over again in the local media about how the great Theo Epstien and his "proprietary information" can do no wrong. They need to franchise that publicly positions themselves against sabremetrics for that reason alone. Let the Cubs do what they want...Hahn quietly does what he does and there is no need to talk about it with anyone. I'm going to give him a little time to put his own philosophies to work and see what happens. All I know is the few players he has brought in for practically nothing have managed to add a bit of a spark to this club...that is exactly what I want to see out of a GM. He may not hit the home runs Kenny hit (or the huge swing and misses, for that matter) because of his risk tolerance, but I still like what I see out of him thus far.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 09:54 AM) No, obviously not saying FO uses TWTW or anything like that. The point is the the FO uses sabermetrics, especially Hahn, to make up the team, and you have your broadcaster talking about how silly and irrelevant it is, and the marketing staff waving that flag of TWTW. It just doesn't make a lot of sense. There's such a disconnect. I don't think the TWTW shirts do a lot of motivating for the players. Well, to your first paragraph, I hope most people aren't taking this that seriously...the way I interpreted it was us poking a bit of fun at ourselves... As to the bolded, a lot sillier things have managed to motivate teams before...

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 09:00 AM) Somehow I don't think "Dumb and Dumber" would work as a tagline, lol. Hah, no. My point is that we're basically stuck with Hawk as a mouthpiece for the team at this point...maybe I am wrong, but I am viewing this as Brooks making the best of the situation and sort of running with the acronym tongue and cheek...perhaps I am just giving them too much credit though?

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 09:43 AM) Hawk's interview was beyond stupid, I didn't find it funny. It's actually sad that a major league broadcaster is that ignorant. A gimmick? Uh, no. Gimmicks aren't used by front offices and managers to help determine the future of their franchise. I'm not getting the connection between the tagline and the FO actually using this as some sort of measurable? Obviously there are some psychological traits professional athletics target, but I'm not seeing any evidence that our FO actually targets one or another more than any other professional sports franchise...maybe I am missing something here though?

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 27, 2013 -> 07:59 AM) Fantastic? Hardly. Yes, throw would go to 2nd base there. They are slamming Hawk because Hawk is a buffoon. Not embrace stupidity? Why does that have to turn into a rallying cry? Hah, this would be like walking around wearing the ski outfits Harry and Lloyd wore in Aspen and pretending you're not a douchebag...

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 08:57 PM) Ventura has had people steal with Dunn at bat, which has been covered on this board and makes no sense. If Konerko's going, you can guess where the throw is going to take the guaranteed out. Again, the whole point of this thing is Hawk is willfully refusing information that can help assess talent, chances to win, etc. It's beyond ignorant and stupid. The fact that the Sox are going to try to rally around it makes it worse. Plus, the Sox front office uses it to help them put together the team! It doesn't make sense on any level. But hey, let's trot out this TWTW s***, because that's what matters. Everyone take a few minutes and read this. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=20371 I get your point, but honestly, what would you do if you were Brooks?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 03:10 PM) It means either he is getting extremely unlucky, he is making a ton of weak contact, or he is hitting in to the shift a lot. Ahhh luv it when you analahz

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 01:24 PM) It's hilarious. http://flapship.com/the-2013-nfl-draft-fans-experience/ Brilliant job, Blake!

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to get players to be more patient. Of course, there should be a restriction as to how much it's done. You don't want to end up with a bunch of Adam Dunn's with no power on your team. But when you look at guys like Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo, they need to learn how to be more patient and they need that to be a constant idea in their head early in their minor league careers. In fact, I'd say there are a lot more impatient players in baseball today than patient ones, which is why those who can get on base are so sought after. Agreed, but this is where the scouting and the attention to a particular player's psyche comes in...some guys are just naturally aggressive and thrive at hitting that way...you have to know how much you can push a guy like that to look at more pitches and when to say this just isn't helping this type of hitter.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 01:13 PM) Or in certain cases, some players use advanced stats to evaluate their performance and find out what they can do better. Examples: Zack Greinke and Glen Perkins. Advanced pitching stats like FIP can help a lot of pitchers keep their confidence and not get down on themselves too much. The idea that a stat can show you're doing something right when things aren't going well and has proven that eventually, things will probably get better can be a nice confidence boost to a pitcher with confidence issues (Greinke for instance). Another great point.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 12:32 PM) Yeah, that's an instance where the organization discovered that they valued OBP. They almost certainly arrived at that conclusion through the use of sabermetrics, but that isn't any different than the Twins or Phillies ramming bunting and aggressive baserunning into the head of their minor leaguers. In both cases, the team could be right or wrong and a player could thrive or fail, but organizational development philosophy was not something borne from sabermetrics. If Hawk is afraid of players becoming robots, maybe the true culprit is not letting their personal styles thrive. You can point to guys like Daric Barton as casualties of passivity as an approach, but you can point to guys like David Ortiz as casualties of the "Twins Way" too. Just so you know (since we probably agree with each other on most of this already), I was making my point in response to Hawk's "robot ballplayer" argument and Hawk's "sabermetrics get people fired" argument. All good points.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 12:31 PM) Shack, Id date your ex sight unseen just for the house It is a great house!

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 12:02 PM) Keppinger is a good example, but the big reason he got playing time is the Rays couldn't afford anyone better. Moneyball's distinct advantage is you can go through guys until you find the right one because they aren't making any money. Dunn would not be playing right now if he were making the minimum. Keppinger was a pretty decent player in Cinci, as well as in Houston and SF....historically, a guy like him might have been considered strictly a bench player because of his low power output...however, because some of the advanced stats have pointed out the utility in a guy that gets on base at a .360 or higher clip, and the ability to play multiple positions, he was given some opportunities he may not have otherwise received.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 12:00 PM) Players don't create advanced stats or traditional stats. Player just f***ing play and we use advanced stats to understand their performance better. Yeah, but coaches and managers use advanced stats to develop players differently and to employ strategy differently...look at Oakland and Boston for instance, I have heard that organizationally, they started pounding it in to the heads of their minor leaguers to look at more pitches. That absolutely changes how players play.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 11:44 AM) Example? Keppinger is a pretty decent example.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 11:24 AM) Right, there's a whole bunch of nuance here that seems to disappear when someone goes all ranty about Moneyball Author Billy Beane. Some of it, too, is when people waive away all these fancy-sounding stats not only in favor of "gut" but also in favor of other stats that we know are inferior like pure BA and ERA. Good answer, btw. Better metrics should be able to identify good pitchers who pitch to contact but get outs anyway. Part of getting those outs on balls in play is maximizing your defensive positioning and your pitching strategy for every pitcher-hitter-scenario combination, which is aided by data analysis. The tough part is that the data is ultimately analyzing human beings, which, while similar over the wide spectrum of general analysis, are all unique when you really drill down...and that is where the scouting and the "eye test" comes in.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Apr 26, 2013 -> 11:07 AM) It's not that black-and-white edit: but that's a good question that hopefully someone can answer That isn't the case...strikeouts do mean something, but if a hitter does other things very well, such as hit a lot of extra base hits and walk, then the fact that he might k a lot does not diminish him all that much as a hitter. However, for a pitcher, obviously if a hitter is striking out, he cannot put the ball in play, and therefore cannot possibly reach base (save for the wild pitch or passed ball on the third strike). Even that being the case, a pitcher who strikes out a lot of guys is usually going to be throwing a lot of pitches, which can be a negative. It is all about the context and perspective. DA is trying to compare two things as the same when in reality, they are not really viewed from the same perspective at all.