michelangelosmonkey
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Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
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9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
But the difference comes down to huge starting pitching depth, and having enough of a roster to cover for the loss of two stars (Machado back again from ankle injury) for 3-4 months. Arguably they have come together and played better without Tatis as every player has had to contribute.
The Padres arguably made bad to terrible trades for Snell, Clevinger (5 current starters on the Guardians plus Quantrill) and even Urias/Lauer for Grisham now looks pretty bad as well that would have gotten Hahn fired multiple times at SoxTalk.
The farm system allowed them to absorb all those trade losses and still keep CJ Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, Weathers, Morejon, Lamet and Baez for depth/trades. They had enough talent on the 40 man they gave away the Orioles' SS Mateo for nothing.
And that list doesn't include this year's Paddack/Pagan for Rogers, who will be a LHR reliever nearly everyone pursues in FA...as well as the trades for Sean Manaea and Adam Frazier last TDL.
I think my point was that didn't happen LAST year for the Padres...from Aug 10th on the Pads went 12-34. The Sox have had everything go wrong this 70 games but they aren't 22 games under .500 in that stretch. And for all the praise you give to the Padres...they are actually not a up and coming young team. Looking at their key players that are 27 or younger....Kim 26 at shortstop with career .640 OPS. Tatis who has been their version of Eloy. Grisham, 25, who had been good but has been worse than Moncada this year. Abrams, 21, who can't hit anything. Azocar, 26, same. Gore, 23 has been a good pitcher but pitched 50 bad innings last year in the minors and out all of 2020 so talk about ramping up. The Padres are getting it done with a bunch of guys 29 or older. They have lots of holes to fill and lots of payroll committed. I wouldn't want to trade rosters.
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10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:
Well there’s plenty of reason for impatience. First of all, this is Moncada’s 6th big league season not counting his Boston time. 4th for Eloy, 3rd for Robert. Kopech made his big league debut 4 years ago. Many guys hit their athletic and performance peaks at 26 these days. These guys aren’t babies, Vaughn excluded. Coming into the year, the White Sox had a roster that was in the top 10 of oldest in the league. This roster is old enough that it was easy to project then being hurt a lot this year.
But there are also other key issues. Giolito is a free agent next season. Abreu this season. Kopech and Cease both hit arbitration next year so their salaries go up. With the sheer number of holes - they either can’t afford many busts or they need a steadier supply of guys from the minors taking roles and contributing, and they aren’t getting it.
* OK your whole "seasons" thing is such nonsense. Moncada has played in 30 games this year and he's been obviously injured in many. But the last three years he has been the 6th best 3B in baseball by fWar...better than Manny Machado. And he's 27, not 6 seasons, old. Yes Jiminez has been hurt last year and this year which is frustrating because he his 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23. As I mentioned Buxton was also injury prone until suddenly he was the best player in baseball...sometimes it takes time. Robert has put up a 7.3 bWar after his first 183 games AT TWENTY FOUR, not three seasons.
*To say "many guys hit their athletic peak at 26" is just meaningless. There were two big in depth studies and they say 28 or 30 for peak....you try to trash two studies by saying 'look at a couple of data points'. Sure some will do that earlier but which White Sox young player do you think has hit his peak and will never be better???
*As for your "average age" thing...a meaningless stat because the back end of the White Sox roster is filled with old guys because they are trying to win a championship. Their core best players are still very young and likely to get better.
* Of course there's reason for impatience. But worrying about 2024's payroll seems like you are hunting for gloom. The Sox are 4 games under .500 with 88 to play. The injuries have been crazy. To date Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert combined have started more games than Lance Lynn. VV and DK combined have more starts than Cease. Bummer, Kelly, Crochett and Liam have missed big chunks of the season...that group of four would have constituted one of the best bullpens in baseball last year and this year they are hurt. But guys are coming back. If they win 62% of their remains games they end up at 90 wins. I'm hoping for that.
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I think the fundamental problem we all have is impatience. Almost nobody burns up the league at 25. Players come up and they have to adjust. So we see glimpses of Robert for thirty games and we say "he's going to be one of the greatest ever" and then he goes in a slump and we say he is garbage. The reality is baseball players and pitchers peak at 30 (J.C. Bradbury and published in Journal of Sports Sciences) or 28 (Mitchel Lichtman of Hardball Times). The core of our team are young guys who have all flashed greatness. Look at the list of players that have not even hit peak from the most conservative estimate.
Player Age Garrett Crochet 23 Andrew Vaughn 24 Luis Robert 24 Eloy Jiménez 25 Gavin Sheets 26 Jake Burger 26 Michael Kopech 26 Dylan Cease 26 Yoan Moncada 27 Lucas Giolito 27 Vaughn, Robert and Jimenez are babies. Cease and Kopech are just learning to be great. To give up on those five because of a few injuries is madness. Look at Byron Buxton. Hurt at 24. Hurt at 25. Covid season at 26 and now the last two years he's one of the best player in baseball. Moncado has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 30 games? Gio has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 5 starts? So we have rising stars coupled with a couple of players at their peak (Anderson, Bummer, Reylo) or past their peak (Lynn, Abreu, Grandal, Hendricks) and suddenly a very exciting crop of minor leaguers. The Sox have had an incredibly bad run of luck with injuries this year...and cold starts and yes I suspect the team is down and frustrated. But I still think they are going to get healthy and hot. And if not this season?? Look at that Padres last season...sometimes you have all the parts but it takes some hard times before you learn how this all fits together.
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2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:
They hired Duncan's son as head of analytics, a position he knew nothing about until the hiring. A buddy hire to quell the anger of the fanbase after seeing what the Indians, Rays, and less fortunate teams have been doing in their system. Hes working hard at it now, but has admitted he cant talk to TLR about anything analytics. Currently hes being tutored in statistics by a professor. Sounds silly doesnt it?
Thats our organization. The FO is probably unaware of what you just wrote, and as long as they continue to fill Jerrys and their own pockets with money they dont care.
But this isn't even analytics. Everyone knew that some pitchers would be effected. Everyone. If you asked which Sox pitcher would likely be damaged by this...someone should have suggested...how about that guy that won his Cy Young while pitching with the Astro-cheaters? The guy with marginal stuff but with unbelievable command of it. Katz should have said...we need to watch DK closely. Then immediately he was terrible and he for months he was terrible...they KNEW this...they didn't pitch him in the playoffs. This spring he was terrible. The first few starts he was terrible. It's about to be June and he's still marching out there every fifth start. So stupid.
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I try to be positive and supportive of management but this stuff drives me crazy. MLB announced starting June 21st, 2021 that the umpires would be checking pitchers for doctoring baseball substances. DK had pitched 26 games with the White Sox before June 21, 2021 and had an ERA of 3.01 (not just great in 2020...his ERA on June 15th 2021, the start before the check, was 3.78). The 24 starts since then (I thew out the suspended game on June 26 2021 as it was half in and half out) his ERA is 7.18. Come on...is this not obvious to everyone? How can the White Sox not see this?? It's not like it's a small sample size or explained by a slump or injury. DK is a Cy Young candidate when he's cheating and he's the worst pitcher in baseball when he's not and it's very frustrating to watch the White Sox come to any other conclusion. Yes he shut out the Yankees for 15 outs a few weeks ago (his ERA is 7.54 without that start) but it's not like he was even good then...7 baserunners in 5 innings. Honestly...resign Rodon, bullpen game, minor leaguer spot starts, VV...almost any other scenario comes up better than DK and yet every fifth game here he comes again. It drags me over to the "organizational stupidity" majority side here on Soxtalk.
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11 hours ago, pcq said:
This is so specious. Eloy gets one more year of stroking us around before going on the block. Bye mom!!
Eloy hit 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23. He hit .296 at 23. He was hurt last year. Why would you hate him?
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1 hour ago, Richie said:
The 7th highest payroll in baseball is not high when you consider that only half of the league is making an attempt to contend at any given time.
I don't think the White Sox are necessarily cheap, but they don't break the bank open either. I wouldn't be critical if they did so for just one superstar. One superstar instead of a "good" "moderately high priced" signing currently on their roster and I wouldn't have a single complaint.
A superstar like Marcus Semien?? Sox ties, perfect positional fit, sure he's 32 and coming off a career year...but Sox could have had him for $175 million and all of Soxtalk would have had a glorious winter, and ten games in, when he's hitting .128 with almost no power or walks...it would be the apocalypse on Soxtalk. We already have a bunch of superstars (many also struggling) so they spent the money on depth. Let's see how it plays out before we call them stupid.
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8 minutes ago, GREEDY said:
I am a Keuchel bull but there are very few scenarios where the club will be excited to be on the hook for 20 million next year. I don't want to bury him. But I don't want to have an awkward storyline down the stretch if he's been good but not great (which I think is possible). In that scenario you won't want to pay him 20 million next year, but you also won't want the BS that will come with manipulating his innings.
I saw the weather report, knew it was Keuchel's day and realized it wouldn't be a bad thing for him to miss his start. That isn't "Soxtalk-ish".
Sorry I misunderstood your intent. I really don't think Kuechel hitting his 160 inning vesting is a concern with the Sox bullpen...even if he is REALLY good I think the Sox keep him as a 5 inning pitcher and with 30 starts he doesn't make the 160 inning mark. But let's be fanciful...and he regains his control and he is very good this year...wouldn't there be a scenario at 140 innings where they restructure his contract and turn it into a three year $30 million thing? Mark Buehrle as a fifth starter for the next three years would be a nice option.
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26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
I would feel better about Dallas if his numbers didn't do a complete 180 after the sticky stuff crack down. He hasn't shown his old control since that point. He isn't a guy who can pitch over control. Control is a 100% requirement with his kind of stuff.
Honestly I don't THINK Dallas is going to come back...and yes the day after the Spider Tack ban took place his ERA was 3.78 and the rest of the season it was 7. He also came from Houston which has a history of bending the rules for results. Still Katz and Dallas are smart and must be working on a plan to get that control back. I just thought the thread was funny with the unstoppable Robbie Ray against the pathetic Dallas Keuchel yet the two have pitched in the majors for the last 9 years and Dallas has been better than Robbie 8 of those years.
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1 hour ago, GREEDY said:
Sox would love for Keuchel to pitch one inning or even better yet, just warm up and then the game get washed. Nightmare scenario if Dallas is serviceable (but not great) and healthy this season and approaching 160 IP during the pennant run. He does not strike me as the type to take his innings getting limited quietly.
Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario. As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario? Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR. He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago. What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4. Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35. Do you shut him down? I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4. I'm rooting for the bounce back.
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4 hours ago, bmags said:
Yeah, I mean this is an exciting start to the season but I don't think what we are seeing is out of step with that ranking and still think it's what it deserved.
But here are reasons why I think it was valid:
- Unlike previous white sox dead last farm rankings, the system does include quite a bit of talent that could become high-end. But much like previous dead last rankings we have these huge depth issues where multiple positions have no help close to being found. SP makes up close to 20% of a major league roster and it's a bunch of 40 FV guys and MILB depth until you get to A+, and I'm talking about Burke there, who has a lot of arm build-up left.
- In 2018-19 our farm was super fun not just because it had a bunch of high-end guys, but they were all performing. 2021 was the inverse of that, while we had some successes in guys like Romy, Rodriguez and Ramos emerge with really good years, our high-budget draft picks of Kelly, Dalquist and Thompson had atrocious years. Our Kanny young hitters had mostly atrocious years (Beard, Gladney, Bailey, Previously promising pitchers like Stiever and Lambert reaffirmed they were now just fodder after coming back from injuries.
- Possible Guy Norge Vera didn't play, and exciting pickup cespedes didn't light the world on fire as a for-his-age prospect in High-A.
So basically we have a farm with a bunch of potential (Thompson, Dalquist, Kelly, Vera and added Kath, Montgomery, Macdougal) that hasn't come close to showing it yet and is viewed with more skepticism, while guys that are performing (Rodriguez, Sosa, Ramos, Mieses) are building up a case but still viewed skeptically (though ramos probably about to burst through, my sweet boy Rodriguez is still viewed at arms length as just a UTIL guy unless he improves hit tool).
And when you compare that to other teams, it's lack of immediate top 150 guys sticks out, and then guys we are excited also have guys like that in every other org.
But that said, with a 2019-esque year on the farm, it could jump up quite a bit because they are a young group. AND our bottom of the league farm of the early-mid-10s produced way more major league impact than would have been predicted.
AND guys that were just considered bleh like Sheets and Burger last year have contributed quite a bit to the major league club. It's not destitute, but it isn't inaccurate.
The main thing for me is they just need to add MORE. More more more more more. Bigger LatAm, and I don't know that we can afford these 2020 like classes. I think looking back I'm totally cool with 2021. Kath was not as expensive as I remember, and we did some big work in the 11-20 range.
I think you stated this very well. I've been trying to make the argument poorly...but this is potentially the best "worst farm team". I've followed a lot of bad Sox farm systems and I just don't feel like this one was that bad. I think their top 30...top fifteen for sure...is filled with a lot of very high potential guys that because of a series of bizarre circumstances (COVID, Cuba tax issues, injuries) didn't show the upside . I also feel like the point of the farm system is not to produce a bunch of Leury Garcia's and Matt Fosters....but to produce the occasional Tim Anderson/Aaron Bummers. I would rather add a couple of potential stars each year than a dozen filler pieces. But if you have a dozen filler pieces the system-ranking guys loves you because your farm teams win a lot of games and you have lots of "major league ready" parts. Still I completely agree that they need to add MORE. It's so discouraging as a fan to look at the thin soup of Charlotte roster...even the Birmingham roster...there's nothing wrong with having a couple of stars AND a bunch of filler pieces. Leury Garcia has value...it's just not sexy. The biggest problem with the "worst farm system" narrative is that I think the White Sox had a bad history of drafting and international scouting that they have fixed but it is taking time to work through the system and we should see the results this year (and would have earlier except for COVID).
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What happens if we DFA him and he passes through wavers and we resign him. Then he starts smoking the ball in Charlotte...can another team then claim him to their MLB roster...or is he ours for the year?
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29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
We are 7th or 8th right now?
And there’s just no way they bring back Sale with the current front office in place.
So they have money to spend. As for the absolutes? I never said they are ABSOLUTELY bringing Sale back as you said they absolutely won't. It was a thought experiment in response to "who might they bring in". Then I laid out the fact that Boston pays half his salary. It doesn't seem crazy. In spite of all the Soxtalk hate...by most accounts Kenny and Jerry are kind and loyal to their employees. I don't think Sale hated his time here and if he could come back and win a WS?
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13 hours ago, maxjusttyped said:
If you follow prospects/minor league baseball outside of the Sox system, it becomes glaring how underwhelming that list of prospect is. Every organization has players like the ones you've mentioned. If other teams felt differently about the Sox system than what we'll read from various p evaluators, it would have been a lot easier for them to make trades dating back to the trade deadline last year. Obviously it's possible that the players you mention take steps forward, but the same could be said for good but not great prospects in any teams system.
I think if Rodriguez received a larger signing bonus, he would be on the top `100 radar. I think he's the best prospect in the system, but that's still just one guy.
While it is easy to follow the national "experts" I think this is loudly wrong. Cespedes was a top 10 international signing, Colas top 3 in the last two years. Montgomery was a first round pick, Kath was a second round overslot pick, Kelley was 2nd round overslot pick that many had with first round grade. Vera was the top international prospect in the 20-21 international class. Dahlquist and Thompson were 2nd and 3rd round overslot guys. The last three years the White Sox have thrown the brunt of their scouting and draft money at high end YOUNG prospects and Cubans. And then Coivd shit on their plans. They had all these high school kids and Cuban transfers that basically sat in limbo for 1.5 years because of COVID which hurt development. This is a big year for White Sox farm system because if two of that list don't make top 100...well then I'll agree their plan was garbage and their farm system is garbage...but to call it garbage now seems silly to me.
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47 minutes ago, Lillian said:
Do you think that ownership would be willing to take on that contract?
I've written about this alot...two years ago I predicted we would be a top five payroll and was laughed at. JR spends money when the team is good. Picking up Sale contract the next few years is just replacing the money that we would be spending on Keuchel the last couple of years. The question is does Sale age like Verlander or like Shields. This broken rib thing is a bit worrisome especially after the TJS. He's 33, a year younger than Kershaw...Kershaw just signed basically a one year contract for $20m...so you'd demand a fair bit of money back from the Bosox. But paying half and sending a 20th ranked system prospect back? I wouldn't mind that risk.
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24 minutes ago, Lillian said:
Any suggestions?
Chris Sale at the trade deadline? I think Boston is going to regress this year, will be far behind Yankees, Rays and Jays by the all star game. Sale will be out for two months with broken rib but he did pitch really well second half of last year. Boston still owes him $100 million and it probably won't cost a lot in prospects if you take on most of his contract (3 more years at avg of $25mil). He's a dominant lefty and probably has some fond memories of living in Chicago and Soxtalk. Gotta say that playoff starting rotation of Gio-Lynn-Cease-Kopech and Sale would be fun.
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3 minutes ago, raBBit said:
Rodon looked incredible last spring. He looked the part of an ace.
VV struck out Madrigal yesterday...basically Zeus defeating Cronus.
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31 minutes ago, bmags said:
He wasn't irreplaceable they just didn't replace him.
What exactly is the difference between VV today and Rodon one year ago today??
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35 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:
When Rodon's arm blows up in May are all of you going to STFU? Seriously, it's over. Move on. He is going to get hurt. Cueto is a warm body and better than internal options. End of story. This site is really becoming unbearable.
I would have liked them to sign Rodon, but so many takes saying that this years team is worse than last years team and one of the arguments is losing Rodon. One year ago today Rodon was a failed prospect/free agent pitcher we signed for nothing who had huge upside, but a terrible track record and serious injury history. He put together 20 great starts and now he's irreplaceable??? Why can't Katz unlock the cheat code for VV or Reylo like he did with Rodon? It's probably hoping for too much but the internal growth on all the hitters suggests we could score 5.5 runs a game. It's going to be a fun year.
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2 hours ago, FoxForce2 said:
A little late in the game for that. He could have knocked off 10-15 lb over winter. By most appearances, he's just not that motivated to get fit, and at his age is not likely to change his ways in any significant manner.
Bartolo Colon says hi. He only made it to two all-star games after turning forty. Sabathia barely averaged 29 starts, 12 wins, and a 3.8 ERA for the three years after 34. Fat guys just don't last.
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4 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:
For real FTP (fuck the padres/packers), but I’m not surprised. The fact that his name had been mentioned/linked to the Sox for awhile shows the complete failure on this front office, AGAIN.
You mean the 79-83 Padres? The team with top 5 payroll full of old guys and bad contracts? The team that has won zero play off games since giving $300 million to Machado? The team that gave another $300 million contract to a guy constantly hurt? Yes every move the Padres make is one that Soxtalk wanted the Sox to do. Hmm.
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1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:
He’s one of the best hitters to come out of the draft in the last ten years. He held his own after skipping AA and AAA. Yes, he might hit like an MVP at some point in the next few years.
Mike Schmidt came up at same age as Vaughn, same number of at bats, lower first season OPS and he couldn't hit righties at all. The Phillies were not stupid enough to trade him for some 30 year old 5th starter. He went on to have a pretty good career and destroyed right handed pitchers the rest of the way. Maybe Vaughn could get better too. A .900 OPS hitter cost controlled for next five or six years that can play several positions might have some value. Although really, with our two year window, why bother being patient.
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4 minutes ago, VAfan said:
NO. Sheets put up a 143 wRC+ as a rookie against right handers last year. He's cheap and controlled, and one of the few lefty power guys the Sox have. Maybe pitchers figure him out, but it seems more likely he's going to continue to improve.
Dunning was also cheap and controllable. I think Dane Dunning will figure it out too. I just don't think he's going to be a star and we traded him for a player that is one. I'm not sure how Sheets fits in long term...yes he's a lefty but Vaughn is your long term 1B guy, Eloy long term DH and Colas your long term lefty bat. I don't mind him sticking with him as lefty off the bench but if you can use him to get a really solid left handed starter...I'm ok with that.
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5 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:
The best part is the AAV for that OF would be like 13.5m in total combined for a few years. Three positions filled with good offensive and defensive players and basically no money would be so huge, esp since we aren't going to go into the tax.
Plus they are all born within 12 months of each other...Robert being the old man of the group at 24. They won't even be ENTERING their prime for three years...a point where half Soxtalk thinks our window will be over.
Great Expectations
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
I agree with that...which is why, in spite of the bad half season, you have to be excited about Gio, Cease, Kopech, Crochet about to hit a really good three year stretch and Vaughn, Robert, Jiminez and Yoan doing the same. Angels prove that you can't build around two stars but I'm pretty sure you can build around 8.