[2017 MLB DRAFT]

I've soured on Kendall too. The hit tool just doesn't seem good enough — it seems like he'll be overmatched as he moves up the latter. Taking the glovework out of the picture, can anyone compare Evan White to Pavin Smith as a hitter? They're both intriguing to me.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I don't see the Astros being a factor for Quintana at all. I do see the Yankees continuing to make more and more sense. With how competitive they've been, plus how unreliable Tanaka's been, plus their plethora of OFs — Judge has cemented his role enough to make Frazier, Rutherford and Fowler available — they match up well with the Sox.

[2017 MLB DRAFT]

Two questions for people who are more familiar with some of the draft prospects:

 

1. Concerning Jeren Kendall's swing-and-miss issues: Does he have a good hit tool but happens to make a lot of outs on Ks (like Moncada), or is it that his hit tool isn't good and thus he strikes out a lot?

 

2. Taking out defense, who has the better overall bat: Evan White or Pavin Smith?

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I get the panic but some people need to relax. Trade value is a macro view not a small snapshot. Scouts can see that sandwiched between some rough outings were some stellar normal Q like quality performances. The only thing other teams may be considering today vs. 2 weeks ago are things like "is he tipping pitches?" "Is he compensating for an injury?" "How do all the other peripherals look" and "can we get him back to his normal consistent self?"

 

Trade value also hinges on the return and we can assess our risk that way. Whereas, off season Q couldn't get you an "untouchable", does a struggling Swanson or Trea Turner now make them available? Doubt it...so a struggling Q shouldn't lose his value significantly either.

Great point. In addition to those names, Bregman and Meadows haven't done much either. Yet neither guy is any more available now.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I have not seen a report that said that. If anything what I saw was that Hahn went into the offseason saying he'd come down in price and that we weren't serious in July.

 

We had a deal around Kopech/Moncada and were haggling over Devers.

Yeah, I thought the Sox were asking for Betts+ in July, essentially not being realistic at all. Purely my speculation, but if Hahn had been serious, he could have gotten the same Moncada/Kopech deal in July.

[Keith Law Mock Draft 2.0]

But we already have Robert, we don't need to keep duplicating that player profile in the system. We also have Adolfo with similar contact issues despite having solid tools across the board. I get that Kendall is a high level defender, high level athlete, and has top line speed, but we need to get guys in this system with good bad to ball skills to bring balance with the athletes we already have. If we didn't have Robert I would be much more inclined to take Kendall, but since we have a guy with some contact risk already, I would like to get a guy with better baseball skills at the expense of some athleticism.

 

The White Sox have really struggled as an organization to help their hitting prospects improve patience, pitch recognition, and contact skills so I prefer that the team draft players that already have those skills in place when they enter the organization.

I could not agree more with this, and it's exactly why I am hoping for Haseley, Smith or Hiura.

[2017 MLB DRAFT]

still I don't like smith due to that reason. if he was a middle infielder that would be no big deal but at 1B he doesn't have the fallback option if the power doesn't develope. I mean some of the no power 1B prospects do develope power at some point (or at age 30 in yonder alonsos case:)) but many also never develope it (like james loney). it is also interesting whether it is an exit velo thing or a swing plane/launch angle thing like in alonsos cases who always hit the ball hard but swung too level and now swings with more of an uppercut to get it in the air more.

 

smith won't be a 1 HR guy but there is a pretty good chance that he will be like a 15 HR guy with a wood bat and that doesn't really play at 1B. he will hit and there is a chance he becomes a star and hits 30 HR but for a 1B only prospects that is too many "Ifs" in my opinion.

This is too reductive IMO. Through his glove, batting average, OBP and baserunning, a player could be a perfectly fine 1B with only 15-20 HRs per year.

[2017 MLB DRAFT]

Depends how much they like him. Schwarber was projected to be a late teens to mid-twenties pick by most of the mock drafts before the Cubs got him, and if a team likes a guy enough, or wants to try and save some money if their primary targets are gone (Gore, Haseley, Wright) Burger on an underslot deal could make a lot of sense. I think the bat will play, defensively he may not end up at 3B, but its not like it is a non-starter.

 

If you can get Burger underslot at 11 and then use the savings to get someone like Bubba Thompson out of his college commitment you really help put more talent into the system with a really high ceiling guy and a guy with a pretty high floor with a significant ceiling.

 

If the Sox can get one of their primary targets at 11, he would not be an option, but if you are dropping down into a second tier of prospects on your board, Burger provides solid value and could provide the cost savings you need to add a second first round level talent in the draft.

If they go the underslot route, I wouldn't mind seeing them select Hiura at 11. Bat is as close to a sure thing as you can find, and his injury/defense concerns are overblown IMO — eventually he'll be able to at least hack LF.

[5/18 Games]

With Moncada on DL and Collins sitting out, it helps illustrate how little offensive talent there is in the system after top guys

This is a definite concern. If the Sox miss out on Robert and draft a pitcher with their first pick next month, there will be even more pressure on a Robertson or Quintana trade to bring back a bona fide hitter.

[The Yolmer-Moncada Predicament]

If that's true, why isn't Moncada playing CF right now? The Sox have zilch in CF on the radar (unless they are thinking Tilson, and that requires some major Ouiji board work). It's a lot easier to find a 2B than a CF.

For the two reasons you said, I think he should be playing CF now/in the near future. I would guess the reason he isn't currently is that he expressed a personal desire to remain at 2B, and the Sox are honoring his request. Considering his and the team's timetables, there was no hurry to move him off the position anyway.

[The Yolmer-Moncada Predicament]

While I agree it's premature to pencil Yolmer in as an everyday 2B, or to say his presence has much effect on Moncada, I would quickly and happily move Moncada to CF to make room for Yolmer if need be. Moncada will be up for his bat — IMO there's not reason to shoehorn him to 2B where he'll never be elite defensively when he could play CF, where he has a chance to be. I would hate to lose Yolmer's glove (or anyone's for that matter) just because we thought Moncada has to play 2B in the majors, when his bat will play anywhere and his speed + arm would transfer well (maybe even better) to the OF.

[2017 MLB DRAFT]

I have no idea what position Hiura will play. There's also not really a scenario in which he's the BPA.

 

Lets pretend that Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay, Kyle Wright, Royce Lewis and JB Bukauskus will be gone no matter what. That still leaves 2 of: Mackenzie Gore, Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Austin Beck, Jeren kendall, Jordon Adell, and Alex Faedo for the Sox to choose from. I didn't even mention HS LHP DL Hall or RHP Shane Baz either and both would be legit options. Sox are in pretty good shape.

I agree Hiura will not be the BPA at 11 regardless of who goes in front of him, but while I am typically not a fan of the underslot type picks, I think it would be worth looking into if the Sox believe in Hiura's bat. That is all assuming, of course, Smith, Haseley, Beck and Kendall are all gone, and the Sox agree a high floor hitter is more valuable in their circumstance than arms like Gore or Faedo.

[2017 MLB DRAFT]

BA article on Keston Hiura.

 

 

 

If Haseley, Smith, Lewis and Beck are all off the board at 11, what would you think about reaching for Hiura instead of taking a pitcher? He may not technically be the BPA at that point, but he's about as sure of a thing as there is as a hitter, and I'm not overly concerned that he won't be able to play competent defense when healthy. I think he might be more valuable to the organization at that point than a projectable arm.

[5/3 Games]

In a perfect world, I'd like to see him get that K rate down closer to 25% before calling him up.

I'd also like to hear more about his glove. I know he's not Micah Johnson out there, but is his defense major league ready? The better he is out there the more favors he'll do for the pitching staff.

[David Robertson]

The Cubs bullpen was gashed today. Hmm, Robertson for Happ? Ok I'm getting greedy here

That would be great, but I would even take Robertson for Candelario. I just hope we're past the lowball Pedro Severino scenarios.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

Jiminez, Happ, Candelerio, and a flyer is kind of the ideal trade for the Sox rebuild. Three top 100 hitting prospects (including two in the top 30) really helps with the rebuild.

 

Makes sense from the Cubs side as well since Happ and Candelerio look blocked for the foreseeable future. If Almora hits for them this year, then Jimenez is as well.

I'd hate to see Q on the Cubs, but that would be a pretty darn good trade.

 

I wonder if Candelario for Robertson is a possibility this summer. A guy just outside the top 100 (Sickels has Candelario at #200) feels fair for Robertson, if he's healthy and effective.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

Since there has been a lull in trade talk and even though I don’t forsee any trade for Quintana happening until closer to the trade deadline, I’d like to take a crack at what might happen.

I think that in order to complete a trade you will probably need to make it a three way deal in order to get the prospects that we need in return. It seems that too many teams are putting too many of their prospects “off limits” for us to get the type of return that we would like. If we use multiple teams we might get closer to the type of return we need.

I would propose trading “Q” to the Astros for For Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes, Franklin Perez and the second round pick the Astros got from St Louis for the spying scandal(I think that pick is available for trading). I would then trade Francis Martes to the Cubs for Ian Happ.

I have to admit I am big fan of Happ and was somewhat disappointed when the Sox took Carson Fulmer over Happ in the 2015 draft. I would see Happ moving to left field with the Sox. The Cubs need pitching and have no real prospects that would be available this year. The Sox need position players and Happ is blocked from the Cubs current big league roster. I also like the fact he is a switch hitter like Moncada. This would give us two solid position prospects with plus hitting skills one available to join this year (Happ) while we wait a couple of years of Tucker to be ready.

I also considered trading Franklin Perez but I think he could be something special. I like the idea of him being available with Alec Hansen and Dane Dunning in 2019. I also like the flexibility that the extra pick would add to the draft plan for this year like it did last year.

Interesting proposal. I like the three-way angle, and we know Rick Hahn historically does as well! Is Tucker, Happ, Perez and a second-round pick enough for Q? It will be very interesting to follow Tucker the first few months in the minors this year to see how his stock rises or stagnates.

[Some love for Zack Collins]

I agree with you

 

Teams can go a decade without finding a decent starting catcher, whereas it's much easier to find a bat to plug in 1b/dh

 

I'd be willing to develop him an additional season or two if it means he can be a starting mlb catcher defensively

Though this is the conventional wisdom, I don't completely agree with it. Elite slugging 1B/DHs can have more impact, and thus could be considered the priority. I'll generally take a meh catcher who can handle the pitching staff, play solid D, and give menial offensive from the bottom of the line up. If Collins becomes a really really good hitter, a centerpiece to the offense, I personally would rather him play the less physically strenuous position of 1B/DH than catcher, especially if he'll never be more than slightly below average defensively behind the plate anyway. Not sure Collins' bat will rise quite to that level, but if it does the Sox will have a decision to make.

[Some love for Zack Collins]

Agreed. If Collins bat becomes something special/star like, I'd like to see him moved to first. Keep his knees healthy and his bat in the lineup. I see Collins as a long time White Sox player for years to come so I'm not concerned about his positional value. Collins eye and power reminds me a bit of Joey Votto.

I don't think Collins will reach the levels of Joey Votto, but if he does (or comes close), I agree he should be moved off catcher. If he turns out to be a slightly-above-average bat, then he can stay behind the plate (if the glove is adequate).

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I don't know. If the Sox are comfortable with Reyes' medicals, a package of Reyes, Kelly, Perez and Sierra could work. The Cardinals might be willing to move Reyes because he won't help them this year, and then you add the top catching prospect in baseball, a top 100 prospect who plays SS (Perez), and a toolsy 4th prospect.

 

Yeah, the Yankees could beat that, but it looks pretty similar to the packages we're throwing around from the Astros.

Eh. The best use of the Cardinals would be to drive up the price from other teams.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

Great points, a proven, cost controlled TOR, LH pitcher is far more of a commodity than an unproven top level CF (even though a top line, LHB,CF prospect is a commodity) Pitt could fill in an OF position, a lower cost option similar to a Pagan type as they have two other studs in their OF.I like Meadows and IF he were the headliner, I would consider the Pirates. But I agree, Pitt should reconsider, if they haven't already. As Steveno89 mentioned, Pitt's M.O. is to not have the stones to deal the cost controlled prospects and I believe they will continue this trend. Any possible deal w/ Pitt would almost have to include Meadows, Keller and Newman for me. The balance of their prospects may be more hit and miss. I want NO part of Glasnow as his value will only drop as he cannot repeat his delivery and master his command therefore MAY be a late inning pen man. Values in trades come from SP prospects. As in my previous posts, Hou has a greater number of the specific position players we need and both teams have the ability to adjust various packages in order to able to complete a deal. More importantly, the Astros prospects are better risks also. Since Houston has not been competitive recently, they have had the ability to draft near the top of the draft boards for the best CONSENSUS prospects yearly. Maybe this would also prove more valuable as their prospects may have a greater probability of succeeding.

 

It appears as if most teams will wait on a possible Q deal, but I think the best possibility of a trade will happen with Houston. Luhnow is doing his job by waiting and hoping his staff works out. I say the odds are against it and he will definitely come back. The question if/when will he personally decide to engage in serious talks again w/ Hahn ? He can't wait too long or their season will be threatened. He can't wait too long or other teams will again get involved and the price will rise. This is why I liked KW's aggressiveness to win ASAP but didn't agree w/ his overall approach. Unfortunately we are paying KW's price now. If I'm Luhnow, my hand is on the trigger, prepared to close Hahn with whatever it takes. This is exactly what Dombrowski did to get Sale. He swooped in at the last minute as the info on the street was that the Bosox were not engaged w/ RH prior to the trade. If the Stros are 500 in mid May, 6 weeks prior to the deadline, Luhnow should make the deal. This way he'll beat other teams to the punch and also not get into a bidding war.

Agree with your thoughts about the Astros — there are significantly more combinations available to them that could work for a Quintana trade. With the Pirates — I think Meadows, Keller and Hayes is a fair package, a slight step down from your proposal.

 

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I like them both as prospects, but as of now the Dodgers do not seem to be in the mix for Quintana

 

I feel like the Sox are holding out for the premium position player prospect like Torres or Meadows

 

Asking for Martes + Tucker + Musgrove is not unreasonable as a starting point to get the discussion going, but the Sopx aren't going to drop their pants to make a deal happen

I agree and I think Bellinger falls into that class as well.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

Dodgers seem content to hang onto their prospects right now

 

Would a Bellinger, Alvarez and Verdugo package be enough?

Where do I sign? Haha, but yeah, I don't see the Dodgers offering all that. If they do get involved, I hope we don't hear the same "Bellinger is completely off limits" posturing.

[Updated teams interested in Q]

I dont get it some times. Why dont you guys look at the teams involved? Lets highlight the Pirates and Astros. Do you guys think they operate the same as the Nationals or the Red Sox? Look at the history of Dombrowski and Rizzo. It was the perfect storm for Sale. We may never get there with Q unfortunately and it's up to the Sox then if they want to drop value/ keep him. I'd rather keep him past next offseason if he's still here.

 

You have two teams trying to trade for Q who love their prospects. Maybe it'll change at the deadline. Beyond that the Astros can spend money. The Pirates are content with doing nothing.

 

 

The Pirates rely too heavily on their farm to have the stones to make a big trade for Q...but when it's June or July and your team is right in the the thick of contention, or if you have a starter get hurt then Quintana for 3 1/2 seasons on a reasonable contract appears very attractive

It seems to have become accepted fact that the Pirates shouldn't trade for Quintana because they need to hold on to their prospects as a small market team. I don't think this is such a sure thing. Of course, they shouldn't go for broke and empty the farm for one player — that makes sense. But the idea that they cannot trade Meadows doesn't stand up. There is literally no other way for a team like the Pirates to acquire a premium SP like Quintana. If they think Glasnow and/or Keller will turn into that type of elite starter and then will be willing to sign under-market contract extensions, that is one (longer and riskier) path. Otherwise, since signing a pitcher of that caliber in free agency is not an option, there is simply no other way.

 

And it could very easily be argued that it would be significantly more beneficial to their organization to allocate resources to four years of an elite and vastly underpaid starting pitcher than six years to a (possibly very good but unproven) OF. To replace Meadows, they could sign any Angel Pagan-type to be the team's third OF. Remember, OF is not a weakness on this team. They have two excellent and cheap starters out there already, and that's not even taking former-MVP McCutchen and his potential value (either on the field or in a trade) into account. It could be argued that it is actually [less risky for the Pirates to trade Meadows for Quintana than to hope Meadows and Glasnow/Keller pan out (and sign early extensions that themselves could end up under water).

 

[Updated teams interested in Q]

Barring a sudden injury or drastic new trade proposal, the #WhiteSox now poised to open season with ace Jose Quintana; #Astros not budging.

 

via @BNightengale (or the White Sox Front Office)

The Astros' bizarre lowballing doesn't make sense on a lot of levels. Teams have been especially reluctant to trade top position player prospects (Swanson, Turner, Torres, Meadows), so, although I disagree philosophically, I get why they wouldn't trade Bregman. But why are they unwilling to trade Martes? Outside of Urias and Reyes, I don't think there is any pitching prospect anywhere else that would have been off limits for a TOR starter like Quintana. If the Astros suddenly cave great, but I hope a different team emerges with a better package and the Astros are left with regret.