[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

http://sportsmockery.com/2017/01/mlb-insid...uintana-trades/

 

Breakdown of suggested deals

 

Astros = Martes + Tucker + Paulino

 

Pirates = Bell + Keller + Newman/Tucker

 

Yankees = Mateo + Judge + Rutherford + Tate

 

Rockies = Dahl + Rodgers

 

Thoughts guys? I know sports mockery is usually trash, but this is from a former GM

I've said from the beginning that Dahl + Rodgers would be amazing. The Rockies are way too unpredictable to gauge, but if they sign someone like Trumbo and the Sox include Robertson or Jones in the deal, this scenario isn't that far-fetched.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

We don't need to settle for less than at least three top prospects in exchange for Quintana.

 

Make other clubs up their offers, we shouldn't be compromising much at all

I guess it depends on your definition of "top," but something like Frazier/Rutherford/Andujar/Tate would get my OK, and would be better than any of the Astros or Pirates current rumored offerings.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Heard that the pirates could be targeting Vlad Jr. In a McCutchen-Jays swap. Not sure if he would really move the needle on a potential Q package though

Probably not, unless acquiring Vlad Jr. makes them more comfortable trading Meadows to the Sox.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

This very well might happen - but I think it would put such a cloud over the start of the season. Q will constantly be asked about any and all trade rumors and that could get frustrating for him. The last thing the Sox need is a poor first half from Q. If Hahn really isn't getting fair offers, he should come out with a statement like "Jose will be with the White Sox for the 2017 season and we will revisit trade talks at a later time". I was of the belief that Q's value is the highest it could be this offseason (I can't see him taking his performance to another level), but the value being assigned to him by other teams isn't what we are expecting so can't rush a deal.

Maybe Hahn comes down from his "three elite prospects" demand and compromises with the Yankees now as opposed to waiting until July. Proposed deals with the Pirates and Astros are already beyond compromised from the Sox standpoint. With the Yankees, there's still a chance you could get a headliner like Frazier. If you could get Frazier plus Rutherford, I honestly would be happy regardless of the caliber other prospect or two to round it off.

 

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

It's at the point where I really don't see anything happening, or at least anything that I would be enthusiastic about. I'm more and more expecting Quintana to go to Glendale with the Sox, then get moved to the Yankees for Frazier midseason.

 

Unless the Pirates concede on Meadows (unlikely), it seems like it would take a creative three-team trade now to really get everyone what they want. Something like the Pirates getting Bellinger for McCutchen and using him in place of Meadows for Quintana.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Q makes too much sense to the Yankees to not happen, IMO. The issue is that everyone is too focused on 2017, but after Tanaka/Sabathia/Pineda? are gone, the Yankees have an extremely thin roster. Cashman might want to see how 2017 plays out to see how close they are. If their young regulars start producing & they look like a 87-89 win type team, how do you not go after someone like Q? If you can look past 2017, its too perfect of a match.

This is a good point. I'm beginning to think the Yankees are now the most likely destination as well, but not til July or so. The Pirates and Astros seem unlikely to step up their mediocre offers — the Pirates because they're too dependent on cheap minor leaguers replacing expensive big leaguers, and the Astros because they're overvaluing their prospects and are for some reason hellbent on declaring all the good ones untouchable. The Yankees on the other hand don't want to make that big of a splash now, but will be willing to when they're in the thick of things, knowing they can replace a Clint Frazier for example more easily.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Right, there's risk in waiting for the Pirates as well. Even if everything stays pretty much the same and the Pirates wait until July 31 to ultimately include Meadows they just let Jose Quintana keep being Jose Quintana for 130 innings on the last-place White Sox while they could've had him pitching in Pittsburgh and gotten all that value all along.

 

Also, I know nobody wants to think this way yet, but if the White Sox dont trade Jose Quintana because nobody offered them a stronger return than they got for Sale the thought of this "rebuild" being nothing more than a cleaning out of last springs troublemakers will be hard to deny.

Nah, only meatball fans would actually believe this. It implies good trade offers were rejected for guys like Q, Frazier, Melky, Robertson, etc. Whether or not Quintana gets traded now, it's clear this org shift is more than the Drake LaRoche Purge, and that once a good offer is made, they will pounce.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Newman may not feel like an adequate headliner now, but Quintana has so much as a bad month and you'll be begging for him at the deadline.

Could just as easily flip it from the Pirates perspective and say, "Meadows may feel like an overpay now, but he has so much as a bad month or another injury in AAA/Quintana has another great few months/more teams come into the bidding/our SPs struggle and you'll be begging the Sox to accept him at the deadline."

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

I am really hoping they sign Trumbo as this will signal they are all in and hopefully willing to deal for Q/Jones or Robertson. Trumbo at first moves Desmonnd to the OF and then Dahl has nowhere to go but AAA. A trade of Cargo and Blackmon is unlikely (see Cutch situation - older vets, not much contract left) and also because you can't sign Trumbo, Desmond and then move your two best hitters. It would send a weird message to the fans.

 

Rockies then swoop in and offer Dahl, Hoffman ++ for Q/Jones.

If that ++ includes Rodgers, that remains my dream best-case scenario. Even swapping out Hoffman for Rodgers. Any two of them would blow the other offers for Q alone out of the water. Add a high value piece like Jones (or possibly Robertson), and there's potential for more, even all three of Dahl, Rodgers and Hoffman. There's definitely a match in there somewhere. Too bad the Rockies don't seem interested in the least.

 

I am in agreement with you that I would much much rather Meadows or Bell be included in a deal.

 

But for sake of argument, people have been comparing Newman to Ryan Theriot. Peak Ryan Theriot was a 3 win player in 2008 followed up by 2.2 in 2009. I can't remember how Theriot was on defense, but a 3 win player is rather valuable. If Newman put up 3-3.5 wins per year, I don't think we'd look back on a Glasnow/Newman/Hayes deal as too weak if the second piece was putting up that WAR.

On the flip side, Glasnow/Newman/Hayes would be pretty weak.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Houston, it's time to s*** or get off the pot.

 

Edit: I'd seriously give teams a deadline for their best. Once the deadline is reached and the Sox do not like the offers, shut down trade talks and plan on him being here for at least a couple months before re-opening trade talks in the summer. Unless during that time, a team offers you exactly what you want.

I'm starting to feel this way myself. But I'm also getting the impression the Astros, Pirates and Yankees simply don't value Quintana high enough to part with what needs to be parted with. If it truly requires "desperation," to get a good offer here, the show might be over until July. Luckily Rick Hahn is patient enough to wait it out.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Sox have shown with the Sale and Eaton trades that by being patient they can get their guy. GM's are under huge pressure to win, especially if a team is in its "window". The Sox do not have to settle for a package less than they want.

 

I'm very surprised that we have not heard of more interest from the Rockies. Quintana and/or Robertson/Jones would seem to be a great fit for them

Continues to baffle me as well. The Rockies have the need(s) and, more important to us, the specific pieces, to make a great trade partner here.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Torres + Frazier is a bit much to be demanding of the Yankees and if Hahn really isn't budging off that demand I'm getting a little worried. Lots of talk about Quintana's value and what the Sox should get for him...Quintana's value is the most another team is willing to pay. Now Hahn's job to play salesman and get that highest price, but being ridiculous isn't productive.

 

As for the waiting until Hahn's "price is met". If I have a base model Ford Focus that I'm trying to sell for $50,000 and nobody wants to buy it I cant just say "well have fun taking the BUS" and expect someone to come crawling back in a year to buy my Ford Focus (that is now a year older btw) for a giant pile of money. Time is not going to magically concoct a new market for Jose Quintana out of thin air, if anything his market shrinks as the 2017-18 FA bonanza draws nearer. There will be more competition at the deadline too, some of those impending FA's will be available as rentals.

Do we know that Hahn is demanding both? I would guess one of the two as a headliner is good enough.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

They dumped that money on Chapman because they plan on being good at some point again at some point in those 5 years. Holiday is a potential sign-and-flip in July. Age doesn't matter for a 2-month rental if he is producing (Beltran for example). They're not really rebuilding in the sense that they are going to tear it all down over a 3+ year span. Next off-season, they can spend on 2 starters keeping all their young talent.

I guess they could buy Arrieta or Cueto next off season. But at the same time, Tanaka, Sabathia and Pineda will all be FAs as well, so there will be multiple holes to fill.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

And Cashman essentially saying the Yankees are set in their rotation, which was a last ditch effort to lower the White Sox price. I'm happy Hahn isn't budging.

I don't understand this stance. What is the Yankees gameplan? They just signed old Matt Holliday to a one-year deal to DH, and dumped $86 million into a closer. Why would a rebuilding team do that? Plus, the thing with the Yankees is they can essentially buy anyone they want at any time in FA. Encarnacion, Harper, Machado, McCutchen, Donaldson... they can have their pick of any of them when they become available. The one thing that almost never becomes available is a top starter like Quintana. Wouldn't it be worth it for them to pay in terms of prospects like Frazier/Torres for Quintana, then just dump money on whatever hitter they want when the time is right?

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

That's a good deal from the Pirates end though. The problem we have with that deal is it's so pitching heavy. Glasnow is a top 10 prospect in baseball. Newman is somewhere in 35-50 range. Keller is rising and will most likely be top 50. That's 3 top 50 guys for Q. That's a lot of s***. It's just not the package packed with position players that we are expecting. If they added KeBryan Hayes or another high upside type and possibly their Competitive Balance pick then that's a fair deal. Not sure I'd be super excited because of the lack of position players but Glasnow/Newman/Keller trumps anything the Astros can do.

Value-wise it's in the ballpark. Might have been a fit for the Sox if it wasn't for the Giolito/Lopez/Dunning trade. But as things stand now, it's probably not what the Sox are looking for.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

A few things.

1) both trades were made at the deadline when buyers are more desperate. The supply and demand is different now than it was at the deadline last year.

2) the Yankees are rebuilding so for them it makes sense to hold onto those players.

 

The Pirates and Astros on the other hand need to accept that they need to give to get. At least the Astros look willing to part with their top hitting prospects which is more than I can say for Pitt at this point.

 

In the the end I think Luhnow will make the best offer. The Gomez and Giles trades show that Luhnow is willing to part with quality prospects to get what he wants, what has Huntington done? IMHO, no Bell or Meadows means no Q for Pitt.

Yes, I acknowledged this, and it does explain why the Yankees specially wouldn't be willing to trade those guys. But the market value remains. There's no way Miller and Chapman are worth those (types of) prospects and Quintana somehow isn't.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

I am glad you said that. Realistically our rebuild, if it succeeds, will look much more like Pittsburgh or Kansas City, both of whom are already seeing their windows closing. Pittsburgh and KC both had narrow windows with which to bring in talent before their lack of resources meant that players would be leaving and their times at the top ending. There wasn't a lot of extra money to spend into the talent arriving to extend that window.

This is not true. Those teams had no means to compete in FA, so they built their organizations through high-risk, super-young talent in the draft. That created several-years-away projections that lead to a lot of busts and couldn't be augmented with free agents. The White Sox cannot hang with the Cubs/Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox of course, but they're not anemic either. And, just as important, they are jump starting their rebuild with lower risk, close-to-the-majors prospects thanks to some unique trades. Totally different scenario. Could well fail, but not because they're drafting high school kids and crossing their fingers for five years from now.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

I don't know, the Yankees seemed to find a way to inject some youth into their system this summer by giving up two RP's. Teams will give up young talent for players when they are motivated. With the Sox as clear sellers this summer, they may be able to find some teams that are willing to overpay to try and compete in October.

Can we stop for a second to acknowledge this: The Yankees acquired Frazier for 2.5 years of a relief pitcher, and Torres for half a season of a relief pitcher. First of all, what an extraordinary strike of good fortune. Second, how strange that, a few months later, both seem off the table for four years of a starting pitcher!! Yes, the Indians/Cubs and Yankees were in different situations, but still. Should be able to give some better perspective on Quintana's trade value and market.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

That is underwhelming IMO. We'd need 5 pieces in that deal. I'd rather trade with the Astros if we are going for quantity over quality.

Agreed. I would be disappointed with this return.

[Sox holding talks "daily" on Q]

Been wanting to do this for a while to kinda break it down...So here's the top 20 hitting prospects according to mlb pipelline. Personally I think it's pretty important to get 1 of these guys for Q...only problem is there just aren't many that are available when you look at it like this.

 

1-Moncada- Already got him

2-JP Crawford- won't be traded

3-Swanson- won't be traded

4-Benintendi- not trading with the Red Sox again

5-Brendan Rodgers

6-Austin Meadows

7-Victor Robles- Don't see the Nats going for Q

8-Amed Rosario- Don't see the Mets trading for a SP

9-Ozie Albies

10-Lewis Brinson- Brewers aren't buying

11-Clint Frazier

12-Rafael Devers- not trading with the Red Sox again

13-Gleyber Torres

14-Jorge Mateo

15-Willy Adams- Rays aren't buying

16-Josh Bell

17-Ian Happ- Ehh? Thought about bolding him, but don't see a Cubs trade happening

18-Aaron Judge- Will the Yankees even trade him?

19-Eloy Jimenez- see above

20-Mickey Moniak- Phillies aren't buying

 

Would anybody do a Yankees deal without Torres or Frazier? Mateo, Rutherford, Sheffield and Fowler? I know it seems light at 1st glance but that's #18, 51, and 78 + a decent CF prospect in Fowler.

Rodgers, Frazier, Meadows and Bell would be the ones I'd prefer. No interest at all in Mateo.

 

I don't get why people would want Maitan as a major piece in a Braves deal. The kid is 16 years old! Way too risky for me, considering the slam dunk certainty of Quintana the Sox would be giving up. There is plenty of high end prospect talent available without taking on someone so far away who has an enormous bust risk. I know he wouldn't necessarily be a centerpiece, but still, he'd cost a lot to acquire thus lessening other parts of the package, and it wouldn't be my game plan.

[Sox want to finish Q deal by ST]

Q has pitched at his ceiling over the last 3 years. Consistently very, very good is the best case scenario for Q. The pitching market is legitimately awful today. Q's not going to get more valuable than he is today. Compare that to Eaton, whose defense in RF last year pushed his value to the point that the Sox ultimately raided the Nats' system in a trade.

 

The Sox may not get the headliner that they want for Q, but unless they plan to hold on to Q for the duration of his contract, his value will likely never be higher than it is today.

Q's value will likely never be higher, but it is not likely to fade much either. Four full years on an under market contract is such crazy value that the market can't even really meet it. Plus, the other part is that other players' value is no sure thing to hold steady anyway, and pitchers like Glasnow could easily tumble. Any trade is a snapshot in time value wise. The big picture is my whole argument is predicated on the fact that the slam dunk elite offer is not being made anyway. If that kind of offer comes in, then you take it. If not, evaluate all scenarios.

[Sox want to finish Q deal by ST]

Makes a ton of sense IMO. It's hard to imagine a better market for starting pitching and holding onto him four another 4+ months is risky. Seems like the Sox will wait this thing out until closer to February before reducing their ask. I'm fine with that because there really isn't another quality option like Q and a team might get desperate and do something stupid. If not, we should still be able to get a quality return right before camp opens.

I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close.

[Wacky idea: Trade Rodon, keep Quintana]

Though it's taking time to come to fruition, it is still very likely that a Quintana trade will happen in the next few weeks. But here's a hypothetical "what if" scenario. IF the elite trade packages for Quintana never materialize, with the Pirates, Astros, Yankees, etc. never really offering the top prospects the Sox want, what would you think about trading Carlos Rodon for the good-but-not-great prospect packages like the ones we hear rumored on the table now and keeping Quintana to be ace going forward?

 

At first blush, the drawbacks are apparent: Rodon is younger, has an extra year of team control and would fetch less in a trade. But, to play devil's advocate for a moment, Quintana is a bona fide top of the rotation starter who is very consistent and durable. At age 27, he projects to be great for quite a while still. Rodon has not hit his ceiling yet, and looks good so far, but he is likely to be less consistent and a higher injury risk than Quintana. If teams are willing to put together a package for Rodon than is nearly as good as the ones we are seeing rumored for Q (hypothetical), could the Sox be better off down this road?

 

Would it make sense to take "full value" on a Rodon trade as opposed to "75 cents on the dollar" for a theoretical Quintana trade? Is five years of very good and possibly elite that much better than four years of almost-certainly elite? I think the case could be made that Quintana will be easier to extend/re-sign when the time comes than Boras-represented Rodon will be. Would that factor in for you at all?

 

Again, this is all moot if Hahn eventually pries one of the elite packages for Quintana (which I hope happens, and soon). But if not, is this a discussion worth having?

 

 

[Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go]

Not to shift any gears here, and I know this is Q thread, just don't want to start a new thread for Frazier.

 

Depending on who we receive back for Q, Jones, Robertson, etc. etc. I wouldn't mind keeping Frazier. Now if we acquire a 3B in trades then yes, I think you deal him. My reasons are:

 

1 - He only has a year left on his contract and is not coming off his strongest year - I don't think you get much in return for him

2 - He seems to be a strong clubhouse presence and has been on some bad teams down in CIN. I think he can handle a few years being the leader to younger guys. He seems to have his head screwed on right and a good work ethic

3 - I honestly do think he'll bat better than last year. I'd expect .250 and 30-35HR's and a bit better plate presence - that being said I'm usually over optimistic on Sox players

4 - I think you can lock him up for a 3-4 year deal before FA for approx. $12-14mm a year. That's a total guess, but seems pretty affordable

5 - The Sox haven't had a serviceable 3B for a damn long time. I won't list them out, but the likes of Mark Teahen come to mind

6 - Even if he starts to declne defensively (we'd have him for ages 32-35/36) then I think you can flip him over to 1B and then Abreu to DH ... or if he really falls apart DH. I think there is still value for a guy who can pop 30HR a year at all 3 positions.

7 - Who is our present internal options? Again we may trade for someone - but I think there are worse things than spending 4yr, 50-56mm on Frazier.

 

The other option is we flip him for a return like Micah Johnson, Thompson and what's his face pitcher... but really the return will be less than that. And that just doesn't excite me.

I can go either way with Frazier. I know people want to trade him because of the black and white rebuild strategy, but the reality is you're probably not going to get anything worthwhile back. Is it really worth it to dump him for some A-ball relief pitcher lottery ticket? If the smart thing to do is to trade a hard-to-find TOR SP when the market in a seller's market, wouldn't the flip side of that coin make it smart to "buy" a guy like Frazier in a buyer's market? For the reasons you mentioned, I wouldn't mind re-signing or extending him. He could potentially have more value to the Sox long term that way than whatever would come back in a trade today.

[Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go]

If there is one thing that we have been taught in this off season is that the guys you are dreaming about aren't available. Realistically, who are you talking about?

Well, Moncada, obviously for starters. He hasn't supposed to be available, and now he's on the White Sox. For Quintana, if the Sox land one of Meadows, Bregman, Frazier or Dahl, all of whom currently are unavailable, Hahn will have pulled the trick twice. I will reserve judgement on the 2018 team until I see what Quintana turns into.