he gone.
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Posts posted by he gone.
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Imagine how many great minds you could hire for the cost of one Leury Garcia.
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It will be interesting to see the response of the Sox based on renewal base. We all know they won't share their numbers publicly, but my guess is the number will be quite poor. I only know 5 groups with tickets. They range from full season, to 40? games (whatever the middle number is) to the 20 game varieties. I think the renewal rate on the 20 game and less crowd will be sparse. To me, those are generally the people who saw an improving team, grabbed a few seats coming out of a pandemic when we were locked up, and saw it as at least an investment where they could dump a few seats online and breakeven when they didn't go. That did not happen this year. Tighter economy now ... i just see the renewal base down.
The real interesting part to me is the response by the Sox ... do they opt for the cheap route of slashing salary and making trades, stand put and hope that a bounce back happens leading to tickets packages tied to playoff tickets, or do they add right away to hopefully convince those on the edge to re-up before the season starts. My guess is the stand put.
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8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:
WSD shot it down (per his sources) FWIW (I know, I know not much).
I hope when we hire Ozzie it has a signature of Espada on the graphic.
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15 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:
Nah, no cheaters please.
this narrative is blown out of proportion. All teams are stretching the definition of cheating. I mean, look at the Astros now -- we have the headsets and these guys are still hitting. Boston got knocked for it. All teams were doing levels and MLB picked a franchise to make the scapegoat. There's a reason they didn't do much to the individual players. They made a few guys take a fall for a year or two. Just my two cents.
Also let's not pretend sports is a place where we care about ethics and morals. No cheaters please, but go tim anderson go? End of the day, if you really want to you can be self righteous on like 20 different points and hate something ... or just like ... keep it light and cheer for some wins and fun to distract from life.
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12 hours ago, AJ'S Cousin said:
I agree the bench coach of the Astro’s would be a good choice.
Not picking on you personally, just keep seeing lines like this.
Why? Can you give more than like two sentences on what brings you to this conclusion?
I get it, this is a message board, we're all just killing time and love the Sox, but I've probably watched more Astros games than half this board combined over the past half decade and i couldn't tell you one single stat on the guy, his vision, what he would do with our current team, how he views games, analytics, etc. etc. We just know he's a bench coach on a team with a lot of talent and that wins.
Like this whole thread is pretty pointless ... we know Ozzie's thoughts. He gave them to us every day with a filter for the whole season. We know things on Bochy based on past. We know a bit on Cairo. We know on the fringes a little about some of these guys, but to me, we know nothing.
if i was sitting in those meetings, I'd give the job to the guy who was the most critical of individual players, came with a plan, and identified targets they like. Anybody who came into that meeting as a yes man I'd cut immediately.
Again, this isn't picking on you. I just see so many people on this thread who "like" a certain guy when in reality we don't know anything about any actual plan.
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1 hour ago, The Kids Can Play said:
YES and not only a FULL STOP, we don't need anymore posters worrying about Ozzie being hired or wanting Ozzie hired. Reinsdorf has stated publicly and his comments documented on SoxTalk before, that per Jerry....Ozzie burned his bridges with the Sox and will never be brought back.
If this was as true is you'd like it to be Ozzie wouldn't be doing pre and post game. Reinsdorf owns 50% of that station and in no way rubber stamp an hour of ozzie giving his thoughts everyday on the team if he burned a bridge that large.
I think at the very least they will (or have) talked to him. Maybe not as a serious hire, maybe just as an advisor, but I'd think it's more likely than not they've spoke to him.
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On 9/2/2020 at 9:24 AM, he gone. said:
RDFN - Redfin - when you think about Millennial's they're all entering the phase of owning homes, upgrading homes, etc. The real estate market is ripe for efficiency. Seems very outdated to have to show up in person, sign 1,000 documents, pay a real estate agent to show a home, etc. Back in the day a good real estate agent was very helpful because they set the market, they had the know of the houses going up, they had access to pictures, MLS, etc. etc. The network they built was key to the whole process. They held the data. Now think about it -- first thing we do is go search Zillow and Redfin to look at photos. they, like google, amazon, etc. gather all the info, the comps, etc. The agent will continue to die out, just like when i bought my home- what did my agent do? unlock the door? Paperwork was prepared by them, but via computers & desk jobs, and docusign you can complete the whole process and save clients money. I see this as a nice long term play. I bought at like $28 or something, but i can see this thing hitting $100+. We're not going backwards, so its really just a question of if RDFN can continue to hold market share.
BIGC - I'll say i don't know nearly enough about this stock. But I will say that Chamath Palihapitya gave his blessing on it. I will keep my eye on it and want to learn more. it took a jump from like $70 to $120 and back to $100 in the last few days. Need to research before jumping in.
USCR - this is another one of my favorites. It's staring me right in the face and think it's going to explode post-election. Both sides will want to get people back to work. Infrastructure has and will continue to be a very friendly topic via both party lines. USCR continues to be profitable now and I think the uptick of work via government stimulus will be enormous as they try and get people back to work. Sitting at $27 now, very easily can be a $75 stock in 2-4 years
AMZN - no need to say anything here. A few years ago i bought this to serve as my bank balance instead of holding in banks. AMZN isn't going anywhere anytime soon. They're the Sears of the last generation. Have a decade+ of run-up ahead.
SQ - this was my number one holding pre-pandemic, and then i sold off 70% of my shares .... at $70. It's now at $160. yikes. I'm not sure I can recommend at $160, but i really do think long term that Jack Dorsey gets it. He's doing fractional share purchasing, hes enabling bitcoin purchases, he's doing lending to small businesses, he's got his product in how many small businesses (which is what led me to sell during pandemic). The product is slick - great user interface. simple. the younger generation prefers it to venmo, paypal, etc. the boosts are great ... i use it every week. 10% off groceries when the bill is $75 or more .... just for using the cash app card as my debit card. it's free $7.50 each time. Simply put I love Square and kick myself for letting the pandemic get in the way of my long term goals/outlook. I ultimately think Jack will look to enable friction less bitcoin purchasing once the price goes up and then stabilizes. they have all the tools, the wallet, the ability, the small business, it's just flipping the switch to where they handle the backroom stuff. this company has the ability to be the "new bank" .... it may sound crazy. but this is my most bullish stock over the next 10 years.
CDE - Coeur mining -- gold/silver miner. poorly run out of chicago. they have 4-5 good mines and just one stinker up in Canada that has ravaged their balance sheet and cash flow statement. but if you believe in gold and silver long term, these guys are ripe for the picking. their idled mine will take about 1.5 years to get going, once that thing is running, and if it coincides with $3,000 gold and $50 silver? watch out. this is the type of stock that can go 5X. However that being said, they've been circling the drain for better half of last 5 years.
MOS - Mosaic - safe stock. fertilizer for crops. its not going anywhere. trading low because of a poor last year, this year will be good. if youre looking for a safe return. i like them.
SIX - SixFlags - simply put they have a nice balance sheet and can continue to ride out the pandemic. As long as you believe that things will go back to normal soon enough then they should be a nice buy. they have a good cash balance to ride out 2020 and 2021.
CCL - it follows the same logic. Carnival prints money via their system of paying foreigners like $5 a day for work, dumping waste into the ocean, etc. i personally hate cruises, but people love them and they print money. i personally chose carnival because they're the Walmart version of cruises. something like a Royal Caribbean or Virgin focus on higher price points and that's awesome too, think they'll perform well, but their clientele in my opinion are more likely to be slower to return to cruises. I think the walmart crowd may jump right back in for a cheap vacation and buffets.
BYD/MGM - both are casino stocks - Boyd Gaming and MGM. Sports gambling and casinos aren't going anywhere. States are strapped for money and casinos provide that. Both have cleaner balance sheets than some of the over leveraged casino stocks
PENN - which leads me to PENN, super overvalued right now, or is it? Same concept, but they have a leverage balance sheet and are trading super well because of Dave Portnoy. I shared my thesis with a co-worker a while back and he bought at $4 during the downturn ... sold at $14. it's not $56..... yikes. I bought in mid-20's a while ago and just keep holding. Say what you will on barstool, but it's inevitable that it'll continue to grow. you look at the athletes that are 18, 20, 22 years old. They grew up with barstool. what once was a hard interview to get with these personalities, they now get on the daily. it's an increasingly social aspect to sports with social media. barstool owns that like fox, nbc, espn cannot. so same logic as the casino stocks, but i think you tie in barstool and the media aspect to it? podcasts, twitch, etc. they do it, and do it well. i can see a scenario where penn, almost like tesla being a car company now .... fast forward and tesla to me is going to be more than a car company. i think penn has the chance, if executed well to be a media company/entertainment company that really explodes.
PINS - pinterest - simply put they are data company. the drive business to companies like wayfair. young people and technology aren't going away. pinterest hasn't done the best job yet at capitalizing and making revenue as much as they should, but if they figure it out, can take off.
CRLBF - Cresco Labs - a bit of a dart at the wall. following same logic - weed stocks arent going away. states are broke, and more broke after the pandemic. weed will be legal nationally soon and we'll see what happens. maybe new entrants with pockets wash out these type of guys completely, but i think it's more likely you see consolidation and some of these stocks being acquired at a premium. So i'll ride it and see what happens. this probably has the biggest basket of outcomes.
On a separate note, i hope you didn't listen to this advice haha.
Trading teaches lessons. Most of my macro views have been spot on regarding the overall turn back into commodities as equities were well overvalued against historic numbers. inflation. wars. oil. etc.
But what I have been learning (a very expensive lesson) is buy when the fed prints, sell when they dont. Dont test trend lines. no reason to buy now until we retest resistance and push through. you may lose some money not timing the tops or bottoms, but better to leave some on the table than to try to get greedy.
i still like the idea behind most of my stock choices, however it's less about a company, more about entry points. Ultimately money still has to be put to use and they've killed the bond market plus the whole world is in shambles with the US and dollar being the strongest. I still see inflows into the stock market at some point. That said, there remains too much optimism (in my opinion) at this point. Still people talking about buying a dip. I think the additional leg down kills most "retail" and once that capitulates is when i buy. may not be the total bottom (especially if you zoom out) but I think it's a good enough one.
Still loving copper, gold, silver. Still think REIT's and real estate do well in a stagflation period. still like carnival. like some natural gas plays. unity stock. RYAN stock. and think gambling does well ... in bad times people tend to gamble more and in times of fiscal debt governments will look for more spigots of money.
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On 8/15/2020 at 9:08 AM, he gone. said:
so although one may argue the Fed has done a good job during the crisis (TBD), what you can't do is audit the Fed. They're printing money now, at the expense of the future, something they've been doing for sometime. Now that's all fine and well now, but there's no such thing as a free money tree. debt is money we owe and that will come at the expense of future generations. inflation. the reason we can somewhat get away with it is the fact we have the global reserve currency - also the rest of the world is just as fucked as us. monetary policy changed in the early 70's and has generally been pretty of hand. everybody likes to spend before they have it, that includes the government. so you have governments who are basically saying their money is good, and to trust them, but really nothing backing it outside of the power of your military. The us dollar is essentially the power of our military. It is also powerful because it's what oil contracts are settled in. There's a reason we haven't been diving head first into green energy - because for the last 100 years our power is also the dollar/settling oil in USD. we fund and give guns to the middle east, look for allies, and basically control the oil for the world. it's the reason we go to wars, it's the reason we're in everybody's business and it's worked out tremendously - now none of this is forward thinking or sustainable for a long game
It almost makes you stop and think. Like more inflation was inevitable. And that we'd be going to war over oil/settling in the US Dollar.
Lucky for us, we're in an incredible position as a country if we don't implode on ourselves based on geography, our military, demographics, being able to support ourselves with our own oil supply and still have ample partners outside of BRICS to be just fine. The demographics of china, russia, etc. are POOR. hell, most of europe is completely screwed too. We're the best of the worst and its why you see the dollar succeeding so much. only problem is the stronger the dollar, the worse it actually is in the end.
Should be a very interesting macro environment go forward. I ultimately still think we have another leg down before a rounded bottom and then a strong recovery, money printing, stimulus, etc. that blows up this bubble one last time. It's just how long does that bubble have? Each bubble has a shorter and shorter lifespan because kicking the can down the road can only work for so long before it erodes human trust. What you see across Europe and in other countries will ultimately happen at home too, just have a bit more room to run. Eventually you have to face the music or change the game entirely.
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21 hours ago, he gone. said:
based on the trajectory, the spending habits of JR, and the lack of urgency to push chips in an increasingly smaller and smaller "open window" I believe this team will likely not meet any of its goals. I'd be shocked to win a pennant before this whole team is stripped down and torn for parts.
Yah, i'm quoting myself. what of it. haha.
i actually was thinking about this quote more. Like why are we accepting this is our window? And that it has to close? I hate the sox and JR. I just accept as a fan that "theres no funds" and "attendance is likely to be down" and of course we won't re-up abreu. its f##cked. JR has sat by idly doing absolutely nothing positive for the bulls and sox franchises other than lucking into Jordan and he's made billions off of it. Yet, we have the most legitimate 3-5 year window of our lifetimes and we can't add in RF because we signed joe kelly and leury to bad 2 and 3 year contracts??!! I mean, what? if the margin for error is a few bad, small to mid size contracts then what are we even doing?
Honestly, my heart will always be with the sox, but as i age the less i care about this putrid franchise. I moved to TX back in 2014 for a little bit and was in houston when they were turning their crop of Springer, Altuve, etc. into a playoff team for the first time. They went to the WC in 2014, believe missed the playoffs in 2015 and have made the ALCS for every year since 2016. SIX STRAIGHT YEARS. And guess what? Does anybody believe they don't have a real chance at 3-5 more straight years? I watched those teams when i didn't have mlb package and they were fun. I came home eventually and we were in the midst of our rebuild that was slowly beginning to look like the astros. guys coming up, hahn saying things like NOT being mired in mediocrity, having a sustainable model, etc. i believed, bought in, bought season tickets, etc. etc. and we sit here now watching Harper hit homers, Machado lead the Padres to the NLCS and sox fans are stuck at home twiddling are thumbs on a message board talking about if we can sign Abreu, a guy who's number is likely to be retired and hell, with 2-3 more years and a WS probalby would have a statue in the staidum ... were talking about if we can resign him on a team friendly deal because we've spent too much money on Leury garcia and joe kelly. get the F#ck outta here. We haven't even won one damn playoff series and we're closing the window and stopping the spending. this team, front office, and players are the definition of mired in mediocrity.
As a sox fan, this offseason is do or die for me. change the game in the front office, or lose a fan.
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2 hours ago, Sleepy Harold said:
merk out here planting seeds 😂
Merk is a company man. as someone else said, I think you have to take what he says with some credence as he's likely being fed it. You'd be hard pressed to find a negative take out of Merk about the Sox.
My personal and totally unfounded guess. I think you see Hahn have the decision and it's not a "Sox" name, but then KW, JR have their say and power to essentially push their own bench coach .... aka Jim Thome, Willie Harris, AJ Pierzysnki, etc. etc.
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as much as i am disappointed in moncada, if we're all celebrating up and down Western Ave. next year? He's probably the biggest key alongside health and production of Yaz. Those two guys producing 20 homers each, getting OBP at a .375 clip and running up pitch counts is huge. They are the key to this team. I've said that a ton and stick by it. I hope they both have great years and will be cheering them on. Let's hope we find a manager than can light that fire.
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1 hour ago, RTC said:
Look on the bright side; for the next two years you’re guaranteed Leury isn’t going anywhere and we get to watch Moncada struggle as he makes $42M!
I just went on Spotrac to double check on the contracts I mentioned above and saw the Moncada numbers ... i about fell out of my chair. Holy sh&t. That might be the worst contract of the bunch. $24mm in 2024. TWENTY FOUR MILLION! That would be the highest annual contract in White Sox history ... by like ... a wide margin, no?
I've noted things like attaching Sheets, Burger, and some other midlevel guys to Leury and Joe Kelly if we are looking to have salary relief. Screw that, if you can find ANYONE who has any belief in Moncada at 2 years, $41mm and a $25mm club option you do that in a heartbeat. I can't believe we're paying that Twinkie eating, half assed running to 1st base player that much money. abysmal contract.
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2 minutes ago, pcq said:
Sox don't really have tier one guys at present.
This is correct. We have guys with the talent to be Tier 1 (Robert and Eloy). We have guys who have shown Tier 1 for short bursts (Anderson). But at present the only Tier 1 candidates are Cease and Hendriks, and probably just the latter as we would've said that Gio was Tier 1 over the past few years before this. As we've seen in these playoffs, anything can happen in the playoffs, but based on the trajectory, the spending habits of JR, and the lack of urgency to push chips in an increasingly smaller and smaller "open window" I believe this team will likely not meet any of its goals. I'd be shocked to win a pennant before this whole team is stripped down and torn for parts. Our best chance remains 2023 before you see the likes of Hendriks, Gio, etc. all gone. Hence why signing Abreu on a 1yr deal with a buyout and option that make sense for both parties & is a no-brainer in my opinion. The other no brainer is overpaying on a pillow contract for Conforto. Same deal. 1 year deal, overpay, and be done with it. Pay your luxury tax, add on the fringes and let's go all-in. I don't get the sense that's the direction we're headed and expect us to compete on the fringes for a bad division while not really having a real shot before tearing it all down and being a team mired in mediocrity until JR sells the team or dies and the new team fires his cronies. It may be the pessimistic outlook, but i also think its the realistic outlook. With how this team is built you HAVE to go all-in this season or you might as well start a MASSIVE sell off that retools this team completely so you can get a return on some of your assets before they depreciate further.
AKA - if you're not going to go all in with last or next to last seasons of Lynn, Grandal, Hendriks, Anderson, Giolito, etc. then you better start making calls around the league and seeing what you can get in return.
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i was surprised when i read that too. good on jerry. i was in the minority of being okay with that resigning back in the day. most of the board hated it. most of chicago media hated it.
too bad it probably emboldens him a bit too much on other decisions (aka TLR).
Just for sheets and giggles I went back to when we resigned abreu ... (and grandal at same time). here are some fun takes that people disagreed with.
Again, temper the excitement on Grandal and probably kick up a notch on Abreu. This board has watched probably 5 total games of Grandal in the background from their couch in the past 5 years but everybody is an expert on a guy with a career ops under .800 and who couldn't secure a multi-year deal last year. He's a solid catcher.
Okay, well then what if Grandal's knees age like every other catchers have and he's just a DH?
Grandal being the second coming of Jesus reminds me of the time SoxTalk was obsessed with Cespedes. Grandal is a fine player -- we need to temper the expectations - he's likely to be less than a .250 hitter and have a OBP of like .345 and hit 20 homers. Honestly he'll probably just put up a year like McCann did last year.
This response received 2 laughing emojis.
Take the emotions of this Abreu contract, and the emotions of signing the Grandal contract and meet in the middle. That's where your heads should be at.
Neither are winning or losing us a Championship. These are Tier 2 guys (Jose in his age is a Tier 2 guy). You need a number of these solid, dependable veterans on a winning team.
The key still remains having a few guys breakout into Tier 1 stars. So far it looks like we have a few of those guys and we just have to hope they continue to develop.
If we do those things we should be in a good position in a few years to go out and sprinkle in what you need at the time via minor league depth - whether that be a speed guy, a bullpen arm, a LHB, a Power bat, a contact guy, a TOR starter .... whatever the situation calls for.
Don't worry - this is alright. We are still on the same path as long. Jerry paying Jose in 2022 shouldn't hold us back from spending to put together a championship roster in 2022. If it does, then we never really had a shot to begin. You either believe the money is there to spend or you don't. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Apply this exact same post to this year/offseason. We need the likes of Eloy, Robert, etc. to take that step forward to be a superstar or this whole thing is for naught. Also, if spending on Abreu is too much, then we never really had or have a shot moving forward anyways. We needed a LHB, a power bat, a contact guy a bullpen arm and a TOR starter ... we were indeed held back by payroll ...
I'm saying at the end of his contract .. so his ages 33 and 34. Look at Catcher historical results -- even the best like Posey really age poorly. Mauer is another example. Of course I hope it doesn't happen and maybe it will be less if we have him at DH a bit more over these next few years. But I think there's a real shot his HR total and ability to get on base drops with age and you're stuck then paying a big tab for a DH and occasional backup catcher.
I'll be the negative guy and get sh*t on for it and I don't care. This signing is a C- in my opinion. Again in my opinion.
The good: It signals that we aren't going to sit around and accept anymore losing seasons. It gives us a nice OBP guy, fills a position of need and LHB.
The bad: This move works for 2 years or so, but those probably won't be the two years we need him the most. In those years you're basically signing yourself up for an $18mm DH/1B and backup catcher who is going to hit .240, with like a .320 OBP and hit 15 home runs tying up capital in 2022 and 2023 when we really need that money the most. Aka, you're getting Yonder Alonso or any other average hitter that would cost 1/3rd of that. Again in a very Hahn move we could've just kept Navarez and applied $65-70mm elsewhere, but here we are.
This isn't about 2020 since we're not winning any playoff series, so it's kind of a waste to get the best out of someone when it doesn't matter.
Just my two cents.
I'll take the signing, but it better not limit us in 2 years when it truly matters.
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Listen, I get it. i get the money, I get the payroll, i get the predicament that both Eloy and AV present. I just fail to see how the team gets better by taking away its most consistent player and leader from the clubhouse. I totally get his age, his power that fell off a bit, etc. But based on his loyalty and based on injuries of like .... this whole team over and over. I just dont get how you can't give him something like 1 year, $14mm, and like a $4mm buyout with a mutual option at like $15mm. It guarantees him $18mm this year, or like $29-30mm on a two year deal. It's probably somewhere in the realm of reality on a deal like that against the market.
Inevitably Eloy will be hurt - thats what history tells us. Until that point you have Eloy and Vaughn split DH and LF and Abreu at 1B. When Eloy gets hurt you now have Vaughn as your fulltime DH and Pollock as your full time LF. Like ... we know this will be a scenario needed for at least 60 games next year. Without Abreu you now have Vaughn at 1B, Eloy hurt, Pollock in LF and what? you're gonna try and convince me the likes of someone like .... Yaz at DH and bringing up a catcher from AAA is a better depth move?
Mark this down for June 1 at the latest. Yaz at DH when Eloy is hurt for an extended period.
Here are my likely guesses for his destination:
Astros - this is what i'm talking about ... how am i supposed to be a sox fan when you let our top player over the last decade walk and he goes and signs against the top team we're supposed to overcome? yuli contract is up. he's such an easy candidate to slide in. it makes so much sense.
cubs - i don't think it'll happen, but depends on how much he wants to stay in chicago. again, not great optically
cleveland - don't be completely shocked. cleveland has had a hole there. abreu isn't overly expensive and the team has talent to compete. theyve got espino coming up to make that rotation even stronger. it's a young team.
miami - would make sense in some sense. i'm not sure they'll spend.
yankees - id have to think rizzo opts out. would fit. and again, like cleveland or houston - another team we're trying to overcome. we're not only losing one of our top guys, we now have to go play him.
san diego/san fran - bell contract up? i think? belt was on a year deal. both seem like relevant choices.
tampa - it makes some sense on paper based on shorter duration of contract and need.
you look at that list ... chances are outside of miami he's going to a competitor that is already better than us. not a great look.
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Yep, the playoff tickets thing is a bit overblown. I get it. But at the same time you can pretty easily get all the games for ALCS and ALDS if you jump online with a plan exactly at 10am. Or maybe that was me just getting lucky in 2021.
I had all ALDS and ALCS for 2021 run and save for a game or two in the OF, most were between the dugouts about 20-30 rows up.
World Series probably would've been much tougher. But I'm starting to look at it as the money saved during the season can go towards the playoffs. (You know, if we ever get there)
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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:
I'm impressed that the one thing that you highlighted as having been a positive experience involved the same people who picketed the ballpark after the season ended because their wages and benefits aren't competitive with the rest of baseball.
despite all of that they seemed extra kind, courteous, and hard working this year. from beer vendors to the food people. Lots of thank yous, lots of apologies if there were large lines, lots of greetings and goodbyes in and out of the park. They deserve more money in my opinion.
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I wish we could be a fly on the wall in these interviews. I'd give the job to the most honest and prepared guy. Meaning, don't give me corporate speak. Give me - hey I prepared, went back and watched 50 hours of tape and I don't like the way so and so are squaring up on the ball. Or I'd tell them to keep their hands in, or they need to be more aggressive on first pitch, etc. etc. I'd want to hear an actual approach of what they think can be improved and also who they call out. we all know who to call out. I said many times this year this team goes as Moncada and Yaz do. I think that again is they key next year.
I'd also want them to come in with a plan as if they were GM. Say hey, I'd go out there aggressive on _____ and then shift this person here. blah blah blah.
For me? I've been in the Ozzie camp. I think he's matured being away from the game. Seen the game from a different perspective, familiar w/ the White Sox politics, but also has enough pull that he doesn't need to be a puppet. Bochy would be fine ... dont necessarily think we should punish someone like him because TLR was so bad and old. Same with Ron Washington. He's old, but guess what, you never hear a bad thing about the guy from his players. He's obviously had some run-ins personally, but you always hear great things from the players. So those would be my 3.
I wouldn't mind someone like Willie as a bench coach. I'd be fine with Cairo as a bench coach depending on how honest he was in an interview. aka, is he willing to be critical of TLR? If he's not willing to standup and admit that knowing that TLR gave him a job ... then he's not the guy to be with this team because he's not critical enough to make the necessary changes.
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On 10/13/2022 at 8:56 AM, palehose1 said:
you can get them cheaper on Stubhub on day of game
This.
Much like the sentiment across this thread, I told my group I will not be renewing my portion which was 12 games. We had 4 seats, 5 rows behind the dugout plus parking/stadium club. I generally use half for work, half for personal. This year I couldn't find work or personal to take (free to all parties invited ... expensed for work, free for friends). I ended up giving away tickets to 2 games, selling the other 10 games and getting about $50 per ticket on a $80-90 face value.
My perspective is such:
a) why lock into any specific game? you're stuck with weather, with work obligations, family obligations, etc. etc. Locking into games lacks flexibility
b) there is absolutely no cost savings. See above. StubHub has them cheaper for 80% of the games.
c) I was part of a group that have had tickets since new Comiskey opened. Even with 12 games I was only able to negotiate getting an ALDS game, so playoffs don't add anything to my incentive. On top of that, last year when they went on sale i was able to grab tickets for all the ALDS games at face value. Now they weren't my seats and right next to the field, but all were generally good and in between the dugouts. No reason to get season tickets when you can still buy your way into the playoffs
d) i had no fun. even beside the losing. stadium club was an absolute joke for the 3rd year in a row. stale bread that falls apart, no service, poor food quality, over crowded. Hell i went there on an April game. 45 degrees out. maybe 8k fans at the park, slight mist/rain. I took my parents. To sit in stadium club on the glass cost $5 per person ...What is that? Insanity. You pay for a ticket to the game, for stadium club access and then $5 to see the game? Buy a $15 beef that falls apart ...
To me there's absolutely no value left to season ticket proposition. And you know what? I'd love to sit down with a Brooks or anybody high up in the organization and have them experience the process. From getting into games to food, to stadium club, etc. etc. And I'll give the Sox some credit ... they did a lot of things right this year. The bathroom and beer lines in my section were always moving. They staffed concessions well. The people were generally courteous, etc. But they also did a lot of things wrong -- to me Stadium club, parking, season ticket appreciation events all lacked massively. I'll take my $5k and park it anywhere else. Probably end up buying a few scout seats game on stubhub, but that's it. If they go to the playoffs, I'll use the other $3k and buy those games. No reason to waste my time going to pointless games.
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Why not? nobody wears 79 and it'd help in at least some way in recruiting cuba. smart from all perspectives in my opinion. I also think he actually deserves it.
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4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:
I get where you're going with the concept and I don't think it's that outrageous, but I hit a wall right here. I don't think anyone takes on $10 million for Leury or $9 million for Kelly in order to take on Gavin Sheets or Jake Burger. Sheets had plenty of opportunities this year and has an OPS in the low .700s, that's not good enough for a DH/1b. Burger hit better, but has an injury history and was awful at 3b when given a chance there. As a 1b/DH, mid-.700s OPS is tolerable but not great.
I wouldn't take Leury or Kelly on in order to get either of those guys if I was the GM of another team, unless you were taking like half their salaries back in bad money from my roster as well. I can get an .800-ish OPS and average defense at 1b from CJ Cron for $7.5 million/year, why are either of those guys worth more?
yah, i think you're also right. i think it depends on how one views kelly. i know he was god awful this year, but if it was a 1 year deal and he was returning to FA market I think it's fair to say some team would roll the dice on a 1 year, $6 or $7mm deal. (think Velazquez or even someone like James Paxton). So you're really saying for $3-4mm does buy a Sheets? Leury is a much tougher case ... 2 years ... but maybe someone sees 2020-21 version and maybe same idea ...
It's a stretch, maybe even have to throw in another wild card guy in A or AA ball. Pilkington type. Think that's worth it for where we stand currently in this s%*# show. Have to double down over next 2 years before guys' contracts start falling off and leaving in FA.
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What would I do? Or what would I do with the limitations that have been placed upon Hahn (based on his misspending from previous years)
Scenario 1: What I would do is pretty simple. I'd understand the position we are in against the "championship window". Like the true championship window -- not the one where we are the Brewers or Cubs on a downslope and really didn't have a chance. That window is now and it quickly evaporates soon. Based on the salary coming off over the next two years I'd really double down now because otherwise it's never. So if it was me I am resigning both Abreu and Cueto. I'd go with 2 year deals, paid well, option out after 1 year for both. Those are simple, simple moves. I think that Cueto is very much likely to regress, but he's also likely to give you 175IP and keep you in games. I'd give Cueto 2yrs, $20mm. I'd give Abreu 2yrs, $32mm with incentives. I'd keep relatively the same exact roster. I'd trade Sheets, Burger, Kelly and Leury attaching the two former with the two latter to just get rid of salary. That clears $14mm this year, and $5mm the year after which pays for Abreu. One Abreu = better than the combo of all of those 4 on this team. Does it suck? Yes. Does it make Hahn look like an absolute moron? Yes. Is he? Well both those signings are such deadweight that you have to package up okay talent with it ... so yes. I sign Conforto to a 1 year, overly compensated deal to persuade him from not signing in the market place for a multi year deal. And that's it. New manager, new purpose and pray that Moncada does better with an "authoritarian" as Hendriks called for. You hope that Yaz finds his knees and the lack of shifts help him. You hope that Anderson has put his home life behind him and figured out peace of mind. You give your trust to Romy/Sosa. You hope that Colas is the real deal as a 4OF and that he'll be able to play well when someone is injured. You put Vaughn and Eloy in LF rotating as fulltime DH and LF.
Scenario 2: Fantasy baseball/video game. Throw caution to the wind and go for it all this year with the future be damned. Trade AV and either Gio or Kopech for Ohtani. (not sure if that actually gets it done). Plug him into RF. Run it back with OF of Ohtani, Robert, Eloy. repeat the scenario above of attaching guys like Sheets/Burger to Kelly and Leury and resign Abreu to a one year deal. You're paying Ohtani $30mm, but not Giolito his $10mm + not signing Cueto at $10mm = increasing payroll $10mm for the year. You now just traded away controllable years of AV for one year of Ohtani. Giolito was unlikely to resign here anyways. Rotation of Cease, Ohtani, Lynn, Kopech and Martin (go bargain bin shopping for a $5mm VV type arm and hope for the best as your 6th).
Scenario 3: Heady moves. Rays. Indians. Brewers type moves. Don't resign Abreu. Trade Eloy types for Podsednik types. etc. While i do think this is the most likely ... I actually read Hahns comments about offense and power and kind of doubt that Eloy is the one to go.
Whatever route they go, if they don't spend, I will not spend on season tickets. I'll tell my rep that the trade market may be more fruitful and that i'm not just going to throw money at the problem.
Honestly though, it's going to be a chicken or the egg scenario on these tickets which although not as big of a piece of the pie as previous for franchises ... is still significant. The White Sox lost their fan base this year - I don't know one person who has tickets who is resigning ... and the only way i think they will is if they do something big. Problem is I don't see the Sox being the type of team to do something big unless they have a commitment from fans. But alas this is a crap franchise and we all saw that as soon as they got a bit better how they stopped treating the fans as well, jacked up prices, didn't do events, didn't listen to us, etc. and then on top of that s%*# pie they played terrible, took zero accountability, and sat with their thumbs up their asses all season not addressing the issues.
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Yep. I think we all saw this all season ...
It was a combo of these things in no order:
Manager/vibe, defense, no power, no urgency, injuries. It was a poor team all year. Good riddance. I am free of this team and following it until next season.
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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:
Personally I think there's a lot of hints that the 2022 payroll is JR's absolute limit right now (See: the trade deadline). Sheets + Leury to someone actually might be do-able, that's probably about that player's value.
However, every one of those moves leaves the White Sox needing someone to replace them. Great we removed Kelly - who is replacing him? Another $5 million reliever? Their bullpen has an opening now. We removed Pollock, great, do we need to spend another $4 million on someone who can backup CF (probably yes, that person wouldn't be on the roster)? Great we removed Leury, is Sosa the only backup SS or do they have to spend $4 million on Andrus?
Unfortunately - I think the answers are all in house or fliers.
So Leury = Sosa + Romy
Pollock = Colas mid-year
Joe Kelly = some nobody scrub you try and revive.
Personally I think that's a better option than keeping those guys and not resigning an Abreu or making a proper move and signing Conforto. In an ideal world Pollock is/was a 4th OF. As long as the Sox could stay healthy (haha) then you have Robert/Vaughn/Eloy/Conforto out there. Vaughn would be able to bounce between LF, RF, DH, 1B duties as necessary.
Conforto on a pillow deal also allows you one more year of seeing Colas and allowing him to ease into action a bit.
It's definitely not ideal ... but at this point I'm not sure other options really make sense. Sure you can offload Yaz at his absolute low point ... or trade Eloy hoping to get some value out of his hot last few months ... but in general these guys' values are not very strong right now and if you try too hard for payroll flexibility it'll result in an even worse team. I think we're between a rock and a hard place for 2022 depending on how you view the roster. It's not great, but i think the downside of trying to re-tool on the fly in 2023 is too high. Just let one year roll-off and then let's make some really serious directional changes into 2024.
Ahhhh what a fun post to type as I hear Hahn talk about our "window"
Your 2023 Off-Season Plan
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Just a reminder Conforto turned down a 1/18mm deal ... I know he had a shoulder, but I'd be shocked if he takes less than 15mm on a year deal. I'd venture he'd take something like 3/42mm just as a safety net on years if you gave him options out after each year (like nick martinez), but he's not settling for 10mm on a year basis.