TheBigHurt Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 (edited) With the arbitration thing and all, and the news on Garland, what's up with Crede? Is he staying or leaving, or is it unknown? Are there any rumors circulationg? *EDIT* And what about Contreras? Edited December 22, 2005 by TheBigHurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 There is a pretty good thread covering this in TW. Basically, Garland's agent has told the Sox there will be no negotiations on a new contract. Doesn't matter what the Sox offer in terms of years or money. Garland wants the leverage. Crede will not sign a long term deal here, because it's Boras' job to get the player to free agency. Contreras turned down the first team offer, but he is the most likely to sign a deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigHurt Posted December 22, 2005 Author Share Posted December 22, 2005 What I meant was does that mean they won't be returning (Crede mainly)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(TheBigHurt @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 03:57 PM) What I meant was does that mean they won't be returning (Crede mainly)? If I had to guess, Crede will be this team's starting third baseman in 2006; he'll be involved in rumors around the trade deadline and will be playing baseball in another city in 2007. The only reason his situation is different from Garland's is because we do not have an MLB or near-MLB ready third base prospect ready to step in and take his spot. It's safe to say Fields is more than one year away with those high K totals and underwhelming play. He'll be here for at least the first-half of 2006, after that, it's anyone's guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:03 PM) If I had to guess, Crede will be this team's starting third baseman in 2006; he'll be involved in rumors around the trade deadline and will be playing baseball in another city in 2007. Oh, and he's not a free agent until after the 2008 season... You keep him, despite his agent, until Fields Schnurstein PROVES he's ready to play. /Fixed. Edited December 22, 2005 by Gene Honda Civic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:06 PM) Oh, and he's not a free agent until after the 2008 season... You keep him, despite his agent, until Fields PROVES he's ready to play. Crede's not a free agent until after the 2008 season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:08 PM) Crede's not a free agent until after the 2008 season? This is correct. 2006 = First year of Arbitration 2007 = 2nd " " " 2008 = 3rd " " " It's not until 2008 that Crede is in the same boat as Garland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 05:03 PM) If I had to guess, Crede will be this team's starting third baseman in 2006; he'll be involved in rumors around the trade deadline and will be playing baseball in another city in 2007. The only reason his situation is different from Garland's is because we do not have an MLB or near-MLB ready third base prospect ready to step in and take his spot. It's safe to say Fields is more than one year away with those high K totals and underwhelming play. He'll be here for at least the first-half of 2006, after that, it's anyone's guess. I would agree, but I still think there is a higher chance that he will be moved before ST than there was a couple of weeks ago. If the Sox can get a comparable 3B without back problems in a trade involving Garland, Joe will be gone. The only other scenario was if Joe dropped Borass, but that is unlikely because Borass will get him the best contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:09 PM) This is correct. 2006 = First year of Arbitration 2007 = 2nd " " " 2008 = 3rd " " " It's not until 2008 that Crede is in the same boat as Garland. Well I'll be damned. Service time, yes? That complicates things. I'll have to rethink that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 05:09 PM) This is correct. 2006 = First year of Arbitration 2007 = 2nd " " " 2008 = 3rd " " " It's not until 2008 that Crede is in the same boat as Garland. Yeah, but the Sox hate going to Arb hearings, and you know Borass will do that every year to try and squeeze every penny out of them. I figure if they have to go thru one this year, 2006 will be Joe's last on the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(WinninUgly @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:13 PM) Yeah, but the Sox hate going to Arb hearings, and you know Borass will do that every year to try and squeeze every penny out of them. I figure if they have to go thru one this year, 2006 will be Joe's last on the Sox. The Sox don't go to arb hearings. They meet all reasonable offers. Boras has no leverage in this situation. They will, at the very least, work out 1-year deals for each of the next two years. Boras is such a non-factor here. You guys are making a mountain out of a molehill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 05:15 PM) The Sox don't go to arb hearings. They meet all reasonable offers. Boras has no leverage in this situation. They will, at the very least, work out 1-year deals for each of the next two years. Boras is such a non-factor here. You guys are making a mountain out of a molehill. What happens if Crede rejects the Sox "reasonable offer"? They go to an arb hearing. How much do you think the Sox are willing to pay Crede for a one year deal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 22, 2005 Share Posted December 22, 2005 QUOTE(WinninUgly @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 04:19 PM) What happens if Crede rejects the Sox "reasonable offer"? They go to an arb hearing. How much do you think the Sox are willing to pay Crede for a one year deal? I don't think you understand how arbitration works. The player and agent submit a $ Figure. The team submits a $ figure. The arbitrator decides on one or the other. There is no in between. There is no leverage to be had by making outrageous demands. You will lose your arbitration hearing. -- The arbitrator looks at what similar players (within one year of service time) are making compared to the player in question when making his decision. This isn't an open market situation. It's a "what are other players like you" making situation. Boras has almost zero effect on this process. In his first year of arbitration, Crede's looking at making about $2M. If Boras presents a figure that's at all close to that, there will be no hearing. And if he presents an unreasonably high figure, the Sox will laugh at him, and go to arbitration, where Crede will make about $2M. -- What you often see happen is the two sides present their figures to each other, and meet in the middle so everyone is happy. This would have to happen before the hearing though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 (edited) I was saying if the Sox offered something lower than the going rate, which is inflated, and then Boras asks for something higher than the norm. The Sox either have to take their offer or go to the hearing, since you know Boras is not going to come down. I would think that he would get at least $3 million in the current market. Also, Third basemen were the highest-paid players at an average of $5.7 million. Edited December 23, 2005 by WinninUgly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 There just really aren't that many good 3B out there anymore, and especially players of which to compare to Crede. I'm thinking with relative service time and somewhat similar numbers you can look at 2 guys, Hank Blalock and Ronnie Belliard (though he doesn't really play 3B anymore). Blalock especially though has put up better numbers than Crede over both of their careers. Blalock and Belliard will both make $3M next year. I'd say we'll probably come to an agreement with Crede on a 1 year deal somewhere in the $2.5M range. I just don't see Boras pushing for anymore than $3.3M, it would just be foolish and unreasonable to ask for anymore than that (hell just asking for that is pretty silly.) The Sox would probably go with a figure somewhere in the $2M-$2.5M range which makes a 1 year deal for something around $2.5M look very realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 QUOTE(WinninUgly @ Dec 22, 2005 -> 06:49 PM) I was saying if the Sox offered something lower than the going rate, which is inflated, and then Boras asks for something higher than the norm. The Sox either have to take their offer or go to the hearing, since you know Boras is not going to come down. I would think that he would get at least $3 million in the current market. Also, Third basemen were the highest-paid players at an average of $5.7 million. Like I said, your value is determined by similar players within a year or so of your service time. (Help me out here if you can anyone, who was a first year arbitration player similar to Crede last year?) The one comparison I'd make immediately off the top of my head is Hank Blalock, who is due to make $3M in '06, and would be entering his first year of arb was he not locked up long term. Don't you think that the average third basemen salary is a little skewed thanks to some SS turned 3B on the Yankees? He raises the average by almost 1M/yr by himself. Rolen, Ramirez, and Beltre are the only other 3B above $10M in '06, and they still make $10-15M less/yr than A-Rod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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