Expected Wins and Losses

[joeynach]

There are two common theories in projecting team wins a losses. THe most common is probably the pythagorean principle in which a teams win total win percantage can be determined from this equation.

RS^2

WPct = ------------

RS^2 + RA^2

 

The second theory is actually one that MLB.com lists on its standings called expected Wins and Losses. It is similar to the above formula with the aception that MLB has inserted a fixed value of 1.82 as a multiply to help eliminate uncertainty.

 

WPct = RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))

 

In the first equation the sox are represented to have a winning percantage of .522 and with second equation a winning percentage of .520. That would put us about 11-10 in the season so far based on those numbers. The interesting thing in my opinion is that if you believe in the equations representing real world scenarios then you can look at some teams now off to good starts and say with confidence that they dont belong or wont be there in the end.

 

Cleveland for example is in first place with a 13-7 record. With their expected record given their RS and RA should be about 11-9, a mere 1 game better than the sox. The twins should be 12-11, the Tigers 12-10. So basically the numbers are showing no one should run away with this division and in the end there should be a bunch of teams right around the same records all fighting it out.

[drowninginflame]

Wow, you're pretty smart cause that my made my brain sad to try and figure out.

[maggliopipe]

Cleveland's performance thus far is quite the turnaround from the past couple of years. They've been below their pythagorean record at least the past three seasons, and last season they were 12 games off the predicted pace, an MLB worst. This should have been an indictment on Wedge's poor managerial skills but thanks to the killa stache, he kept his job.

[Hawkfan]

can someone explain to me what RS and RA is.. can anyone do these equations or is there information that we don't have?

[The Ginger Kid]

I still think cleveland has to deal for some bullpen help. I hope they don't because I think their pen will be a weak point. But they also sport the best lineup in the division and that probably won't change.

[vandy125]

can someone explain to me what RS and RA is.. can anyone do these equations or is there information that we don't have?

 

RS = Runs Scored

RA = Runs Allowed

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(Hawkfan @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 02:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

can someone explain to me what RS and RA is.. can anyone do these equations or is there information that we don't have?

RS= run scored

RA= Runs allowed.

 

Apparently when a team scores 9 runs instead of 7, it has much more impact than a team scoring 3 runs instead of 1.

 

This may sound like it doesn't make any sense, but I rather give up one less run than score one less run over a course of a season.

 

Obviously RA correlates to the quality of a pitching staff, and RS gives a really good idea how good an offensive is. I'm sure a lot of us feel pitching > than offensive in the game in baseball, so RA is more important than RS. Of course in the pythagorean record determination it treats each one equally. That's a major flaw in the system.

 

EDIT: I wonder if anyone has tried messing with the root power of the RS and not making it equally and seeing how it fits the data.

Edited April 28, 2007 by santo=dorf

[elrockinMT]

The secret is to score more runs than the opposition. SIMPLE logical math