http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental...?src=rss?kw=ist

 

Hurricanes are unlikely to become more frequent as the world warms, according to a new analysis by a scientists who until now had supported a link between global warming and tropical cyclone activity. But they may still become more intense.

 

"The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week," according to a report in the Houston Chronicle. "The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries."

 

2007 saw fewer hurricanes than expected, though there were several rapidly-intensifying cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The early prediction for 2008 is for an above-average year filled with frequent storms and several intense hurricanes.

 

The art of hurricane prediction, even just a few weeks ahead of a season, is young. Scientists readily acknowledge that the list of unknown influences on hurricane activity is likely to be long.

 

As the Chronicle put it:

 

"Scientists wrangling with the hurricane-global warming question have faced two primary difficulties. The first is that the hurricane record before 1970 is not entirely reliable, making it nearly impossible to assess with precision whether hurricane activity has increased during the last century. The second problem comes through the use of computer models to predict hurricane activity. Most climate models, which simulate global atmospheric conditions for centuries to come, cannot detect individual tropical systems."

I'm shocked to see that some of the science involved with global warming has proven to be inaccurate.

Edited April 13, 200818 yr by whitesoxfan101

I have always found it a bit of a stretch to say that a small-number event like hurricanes were predicted to increase in some measurable way due to small increases in global temperature. Not that it was impossible - more that it seemed to be too erratic a phenomenon in the first place to be that confident with any sort of shift to be predicted.

 

I think it's actually a reasonable expectation that Hurricanes could become more intense due to climate change because you can develop a causal mechanism for why it would happen. Same number of hurricanes + warmer water in the areas that feed them = more energy available for hurricanes = more energy dissipation by them = stronger storms.

 

But the fun of any climatic system is, every level of advancement is going to allow us to better analyze some of the complexities of the system. Wind shear plays an important role in disrupting hurricanes as they form, so that's a potential complication. And so on.