JPN366 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 (edited) QUOTE (Adele_H @ Jun 20, 2009 -> 05:45 PM) Scout the player not the numbers, as the old folk mutter. Numbers in the minors can be very misleading, in general. Ask Brandon Wood and Jake Fox, among others. Then you take into account that the jump between A and AA is arguably the biggest of all (besides to majors) The way some talk about Shelby is that of a bonafied blue-chip prospect. Having actually seen him play.... He is NOT. There are a couple of John Shelby III in every organization AA/AAA. My point re: speed/power being not nearly enough to be a good major-leaguer, still stands. Who knows, Shelby may become an All-Star; I am certainly not trying to suggest he's hopeless case. I didn't think Chris Young, Corey Patterson and Felix Pie would be failing as miserably at this point in their careers, either. How much have you actually seen of him? You do realize his approach has been changed this year. Edited June 20, 2009 by JPN366 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 I also think its alot of being burned before on prospects. I have followed Sox minor leaguers since 2000 and I got really excited then we had the best farm system according to baseball america. Here is the Sox's top 15 prospects following the completion of the 2000 season: 1) Rauch 2) Borchard 3) Crede 4) Ginter 5) Wright 6) Barcelo 7) West 8) Rowand 9) Fogg 10) Stumm 11) Majewski 12) Liefer 13) Biddle 14) Malone 15) Bajenaru Two of these guys lived up to their billing as top prospects (Crede and Rowand) and a lot of them had tremendous minor league success (Rauch was BA's player of the year in 2000). These guys had arguably as good numbers as any of current Sox prospects. Most people thought that these guys would be the foundation to our team the next decade and only two of them were that. Sometimes it's better to err on the side of caution and be surprised if they make rather than be let down when they fail to live up to our expectations. good grief, does this point still need emphasizing anymore? overwhelming majority of minor-leaguers not only do not become ML stars, not even close. 2000 prospect list above is another reminder. overwhelming. majority i'll be happy if 2 of the current Sox top 20 prospects made an All-Star appearance in the bigs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 QUOTE (Adele_H @ Jun 20, 2009 -> 05:51 PM) good grief, does this point still need emphasizing anymore? overwhelming majority of minor-leaguers not only do not become ML stars, not even close. 2000 prospect list above is another reminder. overwhelming. majority i'll be happy if 2 of the current Sox top 20 prospects made an All-Star appearance in the bigs. That may be true, but it's no reason to harp on Shelby incessantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 Well, you have the people who trash the guys who are struggling, and disregard the ones who are having success. I wonder how some would have reacted to Evan Longoria if he had been in the White Sox organization. Would they have been saying, "it's just AA" when he had a great season for Montgomery in 2007? Dude, I saw Longoria once on TV. 2 quick DP turns and a frozen rope HR to RCF later, it was obvious the guy had a chance, as Hawkaroo would stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 That may be true, but it's no reason to harp on Shelby incessantly. Harp incessantly? I just joined. When I last posted on this site, Shelby was still in a test-tube somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 . I won't speak for others, but generally AA is the point where a guy proves he is gonna be a Major Leaguer. If you succeed in AA, the odds are pretty good of you making it to the Majors at some point, especially for hitters. I don't think I would be reserved on a guy succeeding AA. Some of the college guys in A ball have to prove themselves a bit more if they don't have a bigger upside or incredible stats. You know, I think even success in AA is hardly a reliable predictor of success -- anymore than, say, Tyler Hansborough or some NBA developmental league guy piling up big numbers. Discounting obvious phenoms/exception.......90% of guys you need to see face major-league quality competion consistently before rendering judgement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 20, 2009 Share Posted June 20, 2009 It's not a crap argument. The crap argument is making negative comments about a guy's 'hand-eye coordination'; comparing him to other teams' failed prospects; etc., without any freaking evidence. . Didn't mean to say that Shelby has no hand-eye coordination. Only made a general point in response to your "his power/speed combo is so dreamy" American Idol fanboy schtick. Sorry, didn't mean to offend. I am just saying that power/speed is not enough. And that IMO Shelby is a lesse talent than Chris Young (who after a slow start in 2005, was lighting AA on fire and actually was pretty good as a rookie in 2007 in the bigs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danman31 Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 QUOTE (Adele_H @ Jun 20, 2009 -> 06:05 PM) You know, I think even success in AA is hardly a reliable predictor of success -- anymore than, say, Tyler Hansborough or some NBA developmental league guy piling up big numbers. Discounting obvious phenoms/exception.......90% of guys you need to see face major-league quality competion consistently before rendering judgement. I just said make it to the Majors. I didn't say succeed there. Wes Whisler and Jack Egbert made it to the Majors... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adele_H Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 (edited) I just said make it to the Majors. I didn't say succeed there. Wes Whisler and Jack Egbert made it to the Majors... Jack Egbert made it to the majors alright. And then his weak stuff got crushed. Back to AAA. Story of most (good) prospects' lives. (Incidentally, in the olden days, when teams had gazillion minor league affiliates, there were guys who would hit 50+ HR, 150 RBI a year and still could barely hope for a major-league promotion. Which is what makes all this pining for the great David Cook so hilarious.) Edited June 21, 2009 by Adele_H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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