AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winnin g their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here’s the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2009 MLB season after 17 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated twice a day.

 

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

 

 

The Chicago White Sox are 1.5 games back, and even though they had a 3-4 week their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs improved 10 percentage points. The White Sox were underdogs in all four games vs the Yankees and by winning three of four games they were projected to lose, they were able to turn a bad week that started with getting swept by the Twins into a good week. The forecast also assumes Jake Peavy(notes) will be able to play in September. Should Peavy’s status change it will have a significant impact. The Tigers improved their chances by acquiring Jarrod Washburn(notes), but they went 2-4 the past week which cost them seven percentage points. The Twins got bombed by the Angels at home which hurt their playoff chances.

 

 

The Angels’ 5-1 week helped them take the lead in the AL in both current record and their chance of making the playoffs (up 6.7 percent). The offense has been red-hot even without Torii Hunter(notes). The Texas Rangers did their best to keep pace with a 5-2 week, improving their chances by six percentage points. Last week the Rangers made the playoffs as a wild card in 18 percent of simulations, but now they have a 23 percent chance of being a wild card thanks to the losses by key wild-card competitors.

 

 

The Boston Red Sox parlayed an easy schedule into a 5-2 week and improved their playoff chances by six points. The Yankees dropped minus-5 points because they lost three of four to the White Sox and were just 3-4 for the week. The Yankees and Red Sox play a key series starting Thursday which could end up dictating the AL East (YES, EVERY GAME IN THIS SERIES SHOULD BE DECLARED A NATIONAL HOLIDAY AND TELEVISED BY GAMMONS AND ERIN ANDREWS). The Rays were 3-4 and their chances dropped nearly eight points. The dropoff was especially severe because they lost two of three at home the Yankees and they lost Sunday to the Royals – a game they were favored to win at an over 70 percent rate.

 

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEEK 17 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE

TEAM 27–Jul 3–Aug % DIFF WIN DIV

Chicago White Sox 45.3% 55.4% 10.1% 54.4%

Los Angeles Angels 86.0% 92.7% 6.7% 85.8%

Boston Red Sox 62.5% 68.5% 6.0% 39.2%

Texas Rangers 31.5% 37.0% 5.5% 14.0%

Baltimore Orioles 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Cleveland Indians 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Kansas City Royals 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Oakland Athletics 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Toronto Blue Jays 2.6% 0.4% –2.2% 0.1%

Minnesota Twins 15.6% 13.3% –2.3% 13.0%

Seattle Mariners 5.0% 1.0% –4.0% 0.2%

New York Yankees 85.8% 80.7% –5.1% 55.4%

Detroit Tigers 40.6% 33.6% –7.0% 32.6%

Tampa Bay Rays 25.0% 17.4% –7.6% 5.3%

Edited August 3, 200916 yr by caulfield12

so long as everyone else beats up the Twins other than the White Sox, the Sox should win this division.

We're 5-7 against them now...it's not like it's a 2001-2004 spread in this match-up.

 

It always ends up almost exactly even when all the home and away games are completed.

Detroit is tied 5-5 against Baltimore in the 9th. This could be huge considering they're at home and Verlander started the game (8IP, 5ER).

Edited August 4, 200916 yr by Buehrle>Wood

Detroit is tied 5-5 against Baltimore in the 9th. This could be huge considering they're at home and Verlander started the game (8IP, 5ER).

 

Thomas just hit a walkoff HR. Det wins 6-5

We're 5-7 against them now...it's not like it's a 2001-2004 spread in this match-up.

 

It always ends up almost exactly even when all the home and away games are completed.

 

The White Sox scored 6 runs against them in a 3-game set at the Dome. The next 3 games, Los Angeles scored 35 runs against them in the Dome while the Sox beat the Yankees 3 out of 4.

 

Not sure exactly what that has to do with anything except that the Sox have some sort of weird inferiority complex when they play the Twins at the Dome, and they have 3 games left there this year.

 

I will say that if the Sox are within a game or two of 1st place by the end of August, they're almost certainly going to win the division. A healthy Peavy is going to make a world of difference.

Detroit wins 6-5