To anyone's knowledge, has anyone ever done a survey or study that equates election results with relative followings on social media? I'm currently covering the very beginnings of the local primary season in my hometown. There is no polling or anything else done, as only about 5000-6000 people even vote, and I am curious if that would be any kind of an indicator of who is "leading" in the polls as the election cycle moves on.

Frankly, I'd be shocked if anyone has looked at this. The people who would benefit are the ones running in small races like you note, where you can potentially reach a large number of your voters, but none of them actually have the money to acquire that sort of data.

 

Plus, you're really hurt by the fact that social media seems to change every other year (can I see your election Myspace page?)