http://www.samefacts.com/2014/01/crime-con...two-decade-low/

 

 

I was startled and encouraged to see that under current policies, we are at a two decade-year low in the prison admission rate. To provide historical perspective, peg the change to Presidential terms: When President Obama was elected, the rate of prison admission was just 3% below its 2006 level, which was very probably the highest it has ever been in U.S. history. But by the end of Obama’s first term, it had dropped to a level not seen since President Clinton’s first year in office.

I'm sure the general shift of most states/counties away from criminalizing lesser drug offenses due to monetary restraints is a big reason for this.

I'm sure the general shift of most states/counties away from criminalizing lesser drug offenses due to monetary restraints is a big reason for this.

from the comments:

 

Jon Caulkins says:

January 2, 2014 at 11:31 am

Nice analysis.

 

In the jargon of my field, it is a “stocks and flows” system, and you’ve shown data on the flow, whereas most people focus on the stock. Flows change faster than stocks.

 

To add to the list of candidate hypotheses — US cocaine consumption (including crack) fell radically starting around 2006, in total by 50%. Cocaine had accounted for well over half the spending on the “big three expensive” drugs (heroin, cocaine/crack, meth) that account for the great bulk of drug-related crime. (Marijuana is widely used, but is much less tied to crime.) I grant that there has been a widespread desire to step back from excessive imprisonment, but the decline in cocaine use & distribution could also contribute. One might get some handle on whether it is tight budgets, shrinking cocaine, or something else by looking at state-specific trends.

 

 

Keith Humphreys says:

January 2, 2014 at 11:37 am

Excellent points Jon. The BJS report show that drug-related prison admissions are decreasing particularly quickly. As you know, those individuals tend to receive shorter sentences than violent criminals, so they are more flow than stock.

 

They're just making room for all the thought criminals.

no no that's what the FEMA death camps are for!!!