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Flash

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    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Best I can tell, the teams with special considerations (Mets...new, wealthy owner, Rangers...new stadium, Mariners...general malaise) are making aggressive moves. The 'smart money' (Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers, Red Sox and even the Padres) have been watching from the sidelines. Frankly, I haven't seen one signing where I felt WS should have exceeded the winning bid/contract. My sense is this team will be improved going into '22. At this time, I'm fine watching things unfold, especially when the signed players aren't key targets.   

    • Like 2

    MLB 2021-2 off season thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

    Of course he is . I know everybody hates the Astros but Springer 5.0, Correa 6.7 , Altuve 7.7,  Bregman 4.0, Reddick 4.5, Marwin Gonzalez 3.9 . That's 6 position players with basically 4 and above bWAR which was a good combo of hitting and fielding from most of those guys. 31.8 bWar total from 6 guys.

    Ok so the Sox got Robert ,Anderson and Moncada who can give you that. They lost their best starting pitcher and no one seems to want him back. Age is a concern in the rotation be it the older guys or the younger guys fulfilling their promise. Lots of DH types who can't field so they aren't going to rack up WAR. Conforto is still a $100M dream capable of that kind of WAR but i wouldn't pencil him in to get it or even to acquire him.

    Robert is just 1 guy and outside of Moncada and Anderson the rest area bunch of bad fielders . Grandal , Abreu arent getting any younger.

    Nailed it. Its conceivable that teams can win and win big with a hodge podge of talented athletes but for that to happen, you need a coach who can provide the right mix of nurture, instruction and discipline. The Sox could have hired AJ Hinch but opted for TLR. Okay...bad move, so now we have to supplement what we are calling the Core with players who can not only perform at a high level but also bring some of the chemistry, winning culture and baseball IQ to help turn our individual contributors into a team. Thats why I am now leaning toward Chris Taylor.

    • Like 1

    Robbie Ray to the Mariners, 5 years $115 million

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

    I'll stick with what I said. JV is 39 and coming off TJ . I'm just thinking not to expect a workhorse yr from him in 2022. That's pretty high risk even for a guy like JV.

    Thor also pretty high risk since he's coming off 2 years off. Rodon I'll also classify as high risk but most of those predicting his contract have him getting a multiple year offer. There is one I have seen at 1/$25 others 3 , 4 or 5 years from anywhere from $45-75M.

    If I had to predict who would pitch more innings this year of the 3 I'll stick with Rodon. But I'll honestly say it's a tossup given their ages and recent histories of non pitching and injuries. Don't know if Carlos will beat the Verlander contract but being 10 yrs younger I'd make the odds even.

     

    Kind of curious why WS didn't give him a QO and, given the demand for quality arms, he has yet to sign. Seems like he would have a bigger market than Thor. My hope is we have an 'understanding' with Boras commensurate with his medical history and injury risk. Maybe 3/$50ish?   

    MLB 2021-2 off season thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Ian Happ - 25 HRs (22 vs. RH pitching). Can and has played all 3 OF positions as well as 2nd base (and 3rd/1B on rare occasions).  Under contract for 2 more years at @$8M/per. Guessing Cubs would entertain offers. Maybe a package to possibly include Kyle Hendricks ?

     

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, FoxForce2 said:

    Bringing in Taylor or Marte could easily turn 2B/RF into positions-by-committee. I kinda like the idea but I don't know that TLR would take to it especially well. 

    I think it would work nicely and I particularly like CT because as Hi8s has pointed out, he's a grinder and I think attitude and grindiness are as important as some of the more measurables for this teams current composition. We have an ample supply of spirited free swingers and can use the intangibles and chemistry a guy like CT can bring.   

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate.  How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less?

    • Graveman = 3/$24M
    • Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado
    • Conforto = 4/$76M
    • Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL
    • Gausman = 5/$120M

    For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this:

    • Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | 😎 Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B
    • Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan
    • Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech
    • Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez

    I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup.  And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max.  The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there.  But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

    Nice. My concern is JR won't sign two $20M/yr FAs (Gausman and Conforto). As much as I like Conforto and have lobbied for him in the past, I think the better move is signing (Chris Taylor) or trading for (Ketel Marte) as versatile 2B/OFs who provide flexibility and room for Vaughn and Sheets to develop. I'd also like to test if Keuchel might have a little gas left in the tank before salary dump.  

    Sox to talk about Semien with Boras

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    This from Dodger blog listing teams likely to poach Chris Taylor (hint...Sox are first on the list). FWIW, Taylor is my #1 FA choice. Versatility and pedigree make him an ideal fit with current roster composition. Guessing somewhere in the 3yr/$54M range? 

    "The White Sox traded Nick Madrigal to the Chicago Cubs last season in the Craig Kimbrel deal and opened up a spot at second base. The team does not really have a true second baseman on the roster, opening the door for Taylor to start full time there.

    There’s also a bit of a depth issue in the outfield, which is where Taylor can easily fill an important role. If the White Sox find someone to help at second or call someone up, Taylor can still help in the corner outfield spots on a day-to-day basis and take over at short or third if needed".

     

    • Like 1

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

    @Flash deserves lots of credit for sticking his neck out as much as he did on Burnes. It isn't easy taking heat on here when you run contrary to popular opinion. There are some people who can do it with grace. I am not one of them.

    Thanks Cali - I must have gotten into the liquor cabinet during that thread. 

    • Like 1

    MLB 2021-2 off season thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Priority order of targets for me: One or more can be solved through FA but I am valueing positional versatility and have a belief that Sheets and Vaughn will both play pivial roles next year and beyond. I would be all over Diamondbacks GM, Hazan about Marte as well as several others on their roster (i.e Varsho) and wouldn't hesitate to give up one of our core for the right deal.

    1) K. Marte (SH 2B who can also play OF)

    2) C. Taylor (can play 2B and/or OF)

    3) TOR/MOR pitcher

    4) Conforto

    5) BP

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

    Projected Lineup:

    1. (R) Tim Anderson (SS): $9.5M
    2. (R) Luis Robert (CF): $6M
    3. (S) Starling Marte (RF): $19M
    4. (R) Ketel Marte (2B): $8M
    5. (S) Yasmani Grandal (C): $18.25M
    6. (R) Jose Abreu (1B): $19.7M
    7. (S) Yoan Moncada (3B): $13.8M
    8. (R) Eloy Jimenez (DH): $7.3M
    9. (R) Andrew Vaughn (LF): $575K

    Projected Bench:

    1. (L) Gavin Sheets (1B/DH): $575K
    2. (L) Reese McGuire (C): $575K
    3. (R) Adam Engel (OF): $2.2M
    4. (R) Romy Gonzalez (UTIL): $575K

    Projected Rotation:

    1. (R) Lucas Giolito: $7.9M
    2. (R) Lance Lynn: $18.5M
    3. (R) Dylan Cease: $575K
    4. (L) Jose Quintana: $4M
    5. (R) Michael Kopech: $575K

    Projected Bullpen:

    1. (R) Matt Foster: $575K
    2. (R) Jose Ruiz: $575K
    3. (R) Reynaldo Lopez: $2.8M
    4. (R) Collin McHugh: $6M
    5. (L) Aaron Loup: $5M
    6. (R) Ryan Tepera: $4M
    7. (L) Aaron Bummer: $2.5M
    8. (R) Liam Hendriks: $13.3M

    TOTAL PROJECTED SALARY: $175M

    $5M over the $170M target seems reasonable enough for me to stop pulling my hair out over how I can afford the Marte Bros. without having to gut the bullpen I created. 

    I am happy that I was able to balance out the lineup by adding another lefty force, switch-hitting Ketel Marte, while also improving the team defense and speed. McGuire is a for sure improvement over Collins, and Starling Marte is a massive improvement over whatever the hell you want to call RF last season. This offense is quite ridiculous.

    On the pitching side I feel like I did a good job rebuilding the bullpen. The Sox bullpen was likely going to lose Kopech, Kimbrel, Tepera, and Marshall from 2021. I brought back Tepera, and then added reliable veterans like McHugh and Loup to help stabilize the pen. Moving Kimbrel paid for all of those guys, plus some. 

    The weakness here, and I'm guessing the weakness most of these OPPs will have is the Rotation. It's hard to replace an ace like Carlos Rodon, and also be forced to pretty much give away Dallas Kuechel and still replace them and upgrade elsewhere. I feel even if the target payroll was just as high as $180M, I would have felt better about getting someone more reliable than Jose Quintana to slot in to that #4 spot. My theory is the Sox should be constructing themselves more for the 2022 playoffs than the 2022 regular season. Keep Kopech fresh enough all year that he still has innings to give in October. If they can get that far, then 3 or 4 starters is all they need for a playoff series and Quintana just becomes a bullpen guy at best. 

    I've spent consecutive nights up until 3 am now doing research for and creating this, but it's always super fun to do them and see how hard these are when there isn't a PS5 controller in my hand. Look forward to hearing feedback and getting a chance to see how many of us had similar thoughts. I tried not to skim too many other OPPs for fear of influence, but if White Sox twitter has told me anything, it's that the group think can sometimes be too Conforto for comfort. ;)

    Very well thought through. Can quibble re: Q and Leury but definitely agree on the Martes.

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Am a Conforto fan and love Marte. Let's get em both. Of course any team would want Scherzer but at $40/3 I can't see it UNLESS, we can rationalize the positive impact he will have on the younger pitchers. Is he known for mentoring younger pitchers or mostly just for being an individual contributor?

    • Like 1

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    On 1/19/2021 at 9:33 PM,  Chicago White Sox said: 

    Flash has already claimed that Burnes is the odds on favorite to win NL Cy Young next year, so I’m pretty sure he’s saying Burnes will outperform Giolito next year.

     

    Thanks CWS. Thats exactly what I'm saying lest there be any confusion. 

     
    • Like 1

    2022 Offseason Plan Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Free Agent Target: Chris Taylor...for '21, 48 starts in center field, 33 at second base, 19 at shortstop, 16 in left, and nine at third. It could be we don't sign a corner OF'er AND 2B. Taylor provides the versatility to fill in where needed. Not left handed but extremally versatile and productive. FG suggests 4yrs/$60M should do the trick.

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