Frobby

At the end of the day, it depends what Elias thinks, not what O’s fans think. But do imagine Elias is crunching numbers. I should tell you, over on Orioles Hangout, Sports Guy has always had an extremely high opinion of Mayo, relative to other prospects. So there may be O’s fans more willing to part with Mayo that he is. But who really cares, none of them are the GM. I definitely don’t think Mayo is untouchable but I think it would take a more consistent pitcher than Cease has been for Elias to move him. But all of that is just my opinion, it’s not like we really know.

I don’t think Mayo is coming in a Cease trade, but I’m curious why the concern about him being right-handed? Mayo had a 1.009 OPS vs. RHP this year, .880 vs. LHP. He can hit both. He’s actually hit RHP a little better than LHP each year of his career.

This is pretty much my take as well. I have confidence in Elias knowing what price for Cease is worth it and what price is too high. We can outbid any other team when it comes to prospect capital; whether we should is another question. I always expected the price eventually would be pretty high and have assumed Elias will make an attractive bid but won’t be obsessed with winning the auction if the price gets beyond whatever he believes the value is. He’s not an auction fever guy.

Agree on Mateo but not Mullins. I don’t want to spend much time on it because there’s no way we’re trading him this offseason. But he’s been very healthy the last couple of years before this one and has been worth 5.9, 3.8 and 2.8 rWAR (in 116 games this year). He’s a very good player and fun to watch. And O’s fans will watch him this year and be happy about it.

Hate to tell you this: I’m old. Old enough to experience the Orioles winning the Series three times. Old enough to have watched the Baltimore Colts win the Super Bowl. And I went to Duke BEFORE Coach K was there and I’ve seen them win 5 NCAA championships. So, I do know exactly what it’s like. And I’m telling you, I’d rather have been a Rays fan over the last 16 years than a Royals fan, even though the Royals won a WS once in that time and Tampa has fallen short repeatedly. Because the Royals have had way too many seasons in that stretch where they’ve been utterly irrelevant, and that’s the worst feeling there is. Like I said, I know not all fans feel that way. But I do. The baseball season lasts six months and I want to enjoy that half a year every year more than I want one trophy.

I’m curious why you say that. Last year, as starters, that group made 68 starts, threw 362 innings (5.32 per start) and had a 4.10 ERA. Meanwhile, the league’s starters as a whole averaged 5.14 innings per start and a 4.45 ERA. So, ignoring our top two starters, these other guys were better than the league average. Sounds pretty decent to me. Now, @Chicago White Sox said they’d need to cover 90 starts, and as I mentioned, last year that group only started 68 games. But, that’s partly because John Means was returning from TJ surgery and only made 4 starts at year end (to a 2.66 ERA). Irvin is capable of starting more, and Hall is capable of chipping in, having the highest ceiling in the group. So no, I don’t consider that to be “rough” for the 3-5 slots. But an addition like Cease obviously would be of benefit (even though Means, Wells and Kremer all had a significantly better ERA than Cease last year).

I don’t think anyone really knows. Hyde was asked that question recently and said “we’ll see what the situation is when spring training starts” or something like that.

How did @Chicago White Sox register? I did notice he listed his favorite Oriole as James McCann. (No lie.)

I’m very certain that Elias will not reach that level of desperation, from watching how he’s operated the last 5 years. But we don’t even know what “middle ground” means here, since we have no idea what offers have been exchanged.

Also DL Hall. I dunno, doesn’t sound that terrible to me. I’d certainly prefer to have another good starter but all those guys have had their moments.

The AL East absolutely dominated the other divisions last season. Then they got blown away in the playoffs. Stuff happens.

I hated living through that playoff series but I’m not going to draw too much meaning from one three game series, either. I think that teams that overreact to what happens in one short series make foolish moves. My reasons for wanting Cease or another good starter don’t relate to that series at all.

The O’s might be able to run a top 10 payroll for 1-2 years, but not way they can do that on a sustained basis. I think your point about necessary spending is somewhat debatable, but for fans like me, having a team that contends year in and year out is more important than having a team that manages to grasp the brass ring once but has a relatively short window of success. I know not all fans feel like me, but for me I care a lot about the thrill of a playoff race and avoiding those seasons where your team is out of it in July. So for me, I want a philosophy of sustained winning, not a “push all your chips to the middle and try to win one big pot” style. And that means keeping a regular pipeline of young talent. If I could guarantee a World Series title in 2024 by trading our entire top 10 for Cease, I wouldn’t do it.

Having good stuff and being an MLB-ready pitcher are entirely different things. I think in a year or two, the O’s MiL pitching may have caught up to the pitching side, but they’re not going to supplant the role that a guy like Cease would play in 2024-25.

Which is why the O’s are talking to the Sox and other teams. Obviously though, whether it’s incredibly foolish not to get a TOR arm depends on what it costs. And none of us know that right now.

From an MLBTR chat today; Up in the air Who says no? Westburg, Stowers, Pham, and Wagner for Cease or Mark P That's a pretty good offer, even if the White Sox are reportedly/seemingly looking to add pitching. They'd probably want a higher-tier pitching prospect than Pham. https://live.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-17333.html

The reason we’ve been discussing Ortiz so much is that the O’s have a lot of redundancy in the infield: Gunnar Henderson. Stud who can play either SS or 3B well. Not going anywhere. Under control for 5 years. Jackson Holliday. Anticipated stud who can play either 2B or SS. May still be a couple of months away, but maybe not. Will be a “must play” once up. Under control for 6+ years. Jordan Westburg. Solid 2B or 3B who can play SS adequately too if needed Decent debut half-season and will get even better. Under control for 6 years. Joey Ortiz. Best defender in the MiL system at either SS or 2B, can play 3B too. Bat has been excellent the last season and a half in the minors after recovering from shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) in 2021. Under control for 6 years. Connor Norby. Seasoned AAA guy who’s a very solid hitter, weakest 2B defender of this group, can play LF. Under control for 6+ years. Coby Mayo. 3B who’s about ready offensively, may need some more polish defensively and probably won’t be as good at 3B as Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz despite a 70 arm. May move to 1B or RF, not because he can’t play 3B, but because we have better defensive options there. Under control 6+ years. Ramon Urias. Veteran who’s very capable at 3B (won a Gold Glove there in 2022) and 2B, can play SS too but not as well as several others listed here. Very decent bat (106 OPS+) and has been worth 7.4 rWAR in 329 games. Still under control for 3 more years. Jorge Mateo. Excellent defensive SS (Fielding Bible winner in 2022) who shows some amazing flashes with the bat (1.062 OPS last April) but has been a terrible hitter most of the time (78 OPS+). Defense was amazing as a starter, but slipped to merely above average when he was relegated to the bench in the second half of 2023. Under control for two more years. Henderson and Holliday are untouchable. Some consider Mayo untouchable, I’m a little less strident than some O’s fans (e.g. Sports Guy) but for I doubt he’d be moved in a deal for Cease despite Cease’s upside. So you can see, Ortiz is a bit redundant for us, which is why we’d be willing to part with him more readily than we’d part with an equally-rated pitcher or an outfielder. But there’s no magic to Ortiz here. Westburg or Norby could be included in a package as well. Personally I rank them Westburg/Ortiz/Norby, but they’re closely grouped and it depends what a team is looking for. Sorry if this is too much detail but I thought it might be useful context for those who don’t follow the O’s closely.

I’m always wary of using words like “elite” because some folks are more liberal using that word than others, and you never know exactly until the guy is playing in the majors. But in the minors, Ortiz was considered the best defensive SS in our system, which is saying something given that he was on the same team as Gunnar Henderson a good deal of the time, and Gunnar is a pretty good damned SS. So, we’ll see, but at a minimum I’m expecting him to be above average for a major league starting SS. Offensively, I don’t know that I’d call a guy with a .904 OPS in 504 PA at AAA light hitting, but I’m definitely not expecting him to lead with his bat. Honestly, I could see scenarios where Ortiz is the Orioles’ starting SS, with Gunnar at 3B and Holliday at 2B. But it’s not the most likely scenario given we also have Westburg, Mateo and Urias.

Putting aside the rest of the package, I’d actually prefer that the WS take Norby and not Ortiz. But I’ve been saying for a while that the WS could choose which one they want. I’ll explain, though, why I think the WS would be well served by Ortiz. Simply put, he’s an extremely fundamentally sound, rangy SS who makes every play you expect him to make and some plays you don’t expect him to make. And I think it’s been so long since the WS have had a SS with those attributes that the fans have forgotten just how valuable that is. I didn’t watch Tim Anderson day in and day out like you guys, but from watching him 6-9 times a year when the O’s played by WS, and looking at his defensive stats over his career, he gave away an awful lot of easy outs, messed up a lot of DPs etc. And that wears on a team. As to Ortiz’s bat, he’s not going to be upper echelon, but he’s not going to hurt you. He’s got a sound approach and hits the ball hard consistently. I’m guessing he settles in as a .710-.740 OPS guy, not bad at all for a guy with a plus glove. As to his age, I’ll concede he’s a bit old for a prospect, but you’re looking at controlling his age 25-30 seasons, so it’s not really a problem. This is probably more detail than you wanted, and to be clear, I’ve never suggested that Ortiz should be the lead piece, but in my opinion as a second piece he’d be a guy the WS would be very happy with. Norby has his good attributes too, and I can see why some would prefer him since he’s younger and has more power, but to me Ortiz fills a pretty big need for the WS and would fill it well.

I’ve never heard of the guy. It was on the Sports Illustrated website so I assumed it was somewhat credible. I follow the Orioles-related media very closely and this is not a guy I’m familiar with at all. It was the very first article that came up when I googled Dylan Cease/trade/Orioles. Try it yourself and see.

Who do you prefer?

It was literally the first article I saw. And it doesn’t really support “my view,” since I said from my very first post here that I’d be willing to give up Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz (and maybe an additional piece, if pressed by circumstances). So really we are just quibbling about what “extra” the Sox would get. I was just interested in what were the “so many” articles you were talking about. And I still don’t know. What’s the package Sports Guy and James Fox discussed? I can’t look it up because I’m not a Twitter/X member.

I did, and found a Sports Illustrated piece saying the White Sox should “jump at” a package of Joey Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Justin Armbruester, Trace Bright, and Jud Fabian. https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/could-this-orioles-trade-package-land-white-sox-ace-cease-brad9

Can you point me to these articles? I’m interested to see what objective third parties have said. I haven’t seen too much written about it.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but as a factual matter, Wells is not arbitration eligible. He’s been a very good pitcher for the O’s but seems to develop arm fatigue in the second half every year. That’s why he can’t really be a headliner at this point, but he could be a steal as an additional piece.