Frobby

For Orioles fans, our trade of Erik Bedard in 2007 comes to mind. Bedard had two years of control remaining, and was coming off two excellent years, the latter of which yielded a 146 ERA+. Our GM Andy MacPhail spent the entire winter shopping Bedard and finally in early February landed a package that included Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill and two others. Bedard was very good for the Mariners but couldn’t stay healthy for more than a half-season at a time. Meanwhile, Jones and Tillman became anchors of the Orioles’ playoff teams of 2012, 2014, and 2016, and Sherrill had an all star appearance before we traded him away. It turned out to be a very lopsided deal in Baltimore’s favor. I don’t think Cease’s stock is as high as Bedard’s was then, since he’s coming off a mediocre season rather than his best one. Thus, he won’t get a return that rivals what Bedard got us. But, he should yield two good future pieces and maybe something more.

I’m not here to fight with White Sox fans or call anyone names. Nor am I here to tell you what Elias will or won’t do. I’m just here to give you my impressions and get your reactions to what I think would be reasonable offers from the Orioles that they might realistically do. My view is that Elias and Getz won’t get close to their bottom line for at least another two weeks. I doubt Elias has put a deal involving Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz/Norby on the table just yet. And I doubt Getz has made any demand that isn’t at least two prospects that good or better and two other very good pieces. So, we’ll see how it goes.

I don’t think Sports Guy has said “for sure.” Neither one has enough of a track record to say that. But, they both have attributes you often see in a TOR arm. I feel very good about those two.

The reason we’re reluctant to trade Povich is the simple fact that we don’t have a ton of high upside pitching prospects in the high minors. We have a lot of bats, especially infielders. Honestly I’d rather do Kjerstad/Cowser, Ortiz and Norby than use either Povich or Beavers as the third piece, even though Norby is ranked higher than Povich in most places and higher than Beavers in some, simply because we have less need for Norby. As to Povich, I see him as a guy who has a 25% chance of being a no. 3 or better starter, a 25% chance of being a back of rotation guy, and a 50% chance of being a AAAA pitcher. When he’s on his game, he’s brilliant. But he hasn’t found consistency and I don’t know that he will.

What I’ve said is I don’t think we should go higher than that unless and until circumstances force us to. That could happen and hopefully Elias keeps his ear to the ground and will be ready to respond if some team makes an offer that’s better than Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz. But I do think those two for Cease would work out well for the White Sox even without additional pieces.

I think that’s pretty close to true. It’s not like Elias has made any public statements about being reluctant to trade more than one outfielder, it’s just common sense.

Almost no Orioles fan I know thinks we are guaranteed a playoff spot next year — with or without Cease. The O’s haven’t been to the playoffs in consecutive years since 1996-97. We don’t “sweat” the Yankees only because we can’t control what they do any more than we can control the weather. They buy whatever they’re in the mood to buy, year in and year out, and O’s fans just have to live with that reality.

I think they still have that option. They’re cheaper than they need to be, and O’s fans are used to it. We’d complain more except that the team has improved so much the last two years that Elias gets every benefit of the doubt right now.

I agree with this assessment. And I also agree with Elias’ philosophy. Saying that, I don’t think the Giolito contact tells us that much. We already knew the market for FA pitchers was pretty strong, and we’ll probably see more confirmation of that in the next couple of weeks. I’m interested to see what a guy like Stroman will get.

Opinions vary a bit. I did see a report on justbaseball.com (which ranks him 76th btw) that says: “Another good athlete, but not a burner, Norby brings above average speed to the table and excellent footwork/actions at second base. He has good hands and an average arm. He should be an above average defender at the position.” https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/mlb-top-100-prospects-2023/#entry-18497 However, that’s the only report I’ve seen that describes him as above average. The founder of Orioles Hangout, Tony Pente, gives this report: “Defensively, Norby is not going to provide much value at second base. While he showed improvements in limiting his throwing errors, he still struggles to get his feet under him well and is inconsistent. His range is suspect and he turns the double play a bit slow. He just never looks real smooth out there, but if a team is willing to put up with the below average defense, the bat should play well for the position.” https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/46487-orioles-2022-9-prospect-connor-norby-2blf/ By the way, if anyone wants to see Tony’s reports on Norby or our other prospects, which are more detailed than most of the national sites, you can find a list of them here: https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50152-2023-top-75-prospects/

I don’t know where he’ll end up, but it looks like his bat will play no matter where we put him. I don’t really care if his arm is wasted at 1B if that’s the best defensive alignment for the O’s, which it may be.

This was my reaction as well. Nor would he be learning the details of a potential trade. So, I’m skeptical, though interested in what this guy is saying.

To be clear, I don’t know any Orioles fans who think the O’s will win 101 games again or think that the O’s will be clear favorites to win the AL East. We know that (1) the O’s outperformed their Pythagorean record by 7 games, (2) the offense scored more runs than “expected” because of excellent RISP hitting that probably can’t be sustained, and (3) a couple of our AL East rivals were severely hampered by multiple injuries that aren’t likely to be repeated, at least at that level. The countervailing point is that we have a talented young team that is gaining experience and several excellent prospects who are ready to come up if anyone falters. The vast majority of O’s fans would like the team to add a pitcher capable of being a no. 3 starter or better, and Cease undoubtedly fits that bill. That said, we don’t want to give up so much that we don’t have the necessary depth to replace the players who get hurt or who reach free agency. The team has been built up through the farm system and some forward-looking trades of veterans and that’s probably to remain the dominant mode of operation for the O’s.

Kind of a premature comment IMO. We have no idea what’s been offered for Cease, nor do we know what eventually will be offered before the dust settles. If Cease goes to another team for less value than Cowser and Ortiz would have provided, I’ll say Elias was too stingy with his prospects (depending on what else he does). Until then, it’s anybody’s guess what has happened or will happen. I’ll say this: in general, GMs move more slowly than their fan bases would prefer.

If you are referring to Huskers Fan, I would put very little credence in that. His “source” is someone in the “Povich camp.” How often do you think minor league players are told they are about to be traded before it actually happens? Answer: pretty much never. And it certainly would never happen under Mike Elias, whose organization is incredibly leak-proof. I can’t think of a single significant offseason transaction the O’s have done since Elias got to Baltimore that was even rumored before it occurred.

Is Harold someone who has contacts, or just a poster with an opinion?

Oh, I’m not saying there won’t. Just that it won’t come from the O’s unless they are pushed hard. Like Getz saying on Feb. 13, “I’ve got another deal I’m going to do unless you add X,” and Elias believing him.

I agree with Sports Guy. The O’s can afford to give up a third or fourth piece, but they won’t unless an offer from some other team forces them to. Kjerstad/Cowser plus Ortiz/Norby is a very solid return for the White Sox. These are major league ready guys with six years of service time each.

I’d be very happy to trade Norby instead of Ortiz. In my opinion Norby has more upside offensively than Ortiz, but the defensive gap between the two is more significant. Having rooted for a team whose defense has gone from very bad to very good, to very bad to very good over the last 12-13 years, I can tell you that when your team’s defense is bad, you almost don’t realize the impact that good defense has until you have it again. When I’ve watched the O’s play the White Sox the last couple of years, the impact of their bad defense has been palpable to me. That’s why I think Ortiz has more value to you than Norby would. But as I said, you guys can pick between the two so far as I’m concerned.

I see that Sports Guy has been doing a great job representing the O’s fan point of view for the last 20 hours while I was napping. ? I often disagree with him over on Orioles Hangout by I agree with 95% of what he’s said over here. One particular point I want to back him up on is the value of Joey Ortiz. He’s a very good prospect, and the only reason we’d part with him as a second piece in a trade is because we have a ridiculous surplus of young infielders and infield prospects, so we can afford to deal him. He’s the best defensive SS at any level in our system, which is saying something because Gunnar proved to be a very good defensive SS last year. And, he should be a solid hitter, nothing spectacular but far from a glove-only guy. The team that gets him will be very happy they did. At the end of the day, I think the O’s should be willing to give up Cowser or Kjerstad, plus Ortiz or Norby, and let the Sox choose which one from each pairing they prefer. I’m not sure any other team will offer a pairing better than that, and unless someone does, I’d expect the O’s to be pretty reticent to add other pieces. But they could, if pushed to it. If that’s not enough for the White Sox, then I guess they’ll be rolling the dice on Cease having a good first half and bringing more at the deadline.

It’s very much a 50/50 proposition. Kjerstad has more power, Cowser has more plate discipline and is more versatile defensively (he can play CF though you might not want him playing there every day). I’d say the majority favor Kjerstad but that’s mostly because of his small sample performance in the majors relative to Cowser.

He kind of has to be. His dad had an ultra-profitable law firm that generated his income. The son lives off the baseball team.

Peter Angelos suffered a serious stroke in 2017 or 2018, and his mental capacity was seriously impaired. He’s had no role running the team since then. His son John took over oversight of the team and hired Elias in 2018 after the O’s collapsed that season. By all accounts, he has not interfered with Elias in any way, but he appears to keep a very tight leash on the budget.

I do think Elias is smart enough to know he can’t sit still. He may not feel that trading for Cease is his best option, depending on what various possible trade partners are asking. Like I said, he’s a patient guy and I think he’ll explore every possible option before deciding which choice is most to his liking. Hopefully he won’t wait so long that he loses his best options, but I think he’s smart enough not to let that happen.

Last year, a 131 on the Sox would have equated to about a 3.45 ERA. When I look at the third-party projections for Cease for 2024, I see Steamer at 4.12, Marcel at 3.83. So your 131 feels very aggressive to me, though obviously we know Cease did put up one great season much better than that. I’d certainly be hoping for that, but I wouldn’t be valuing him that way in a trade.