Honestly, this year more than normal I feel there are only about 7-8 teams that really have a shot at winning it all.
Memphis
UCLA
UNC
Kansas
Tennessee
Texas(slight stretch)
Georgetown(slight stretch)
Teams like Duke and Butler can't shoot their way through the entire tourney. Stanford just doesn't have enough from guardplay. Wisconsin's defense will at least get them to the Sweet 16, but not much further.
Teams like Connecticut, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Arkansas etc could suprise some people and make a run at the Sweet 16, but not much further to me.
Louisville could be somewhat of a suprise as a 3-4 seed to end up challenging for the Final Four.