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Everything posted by Balta1701
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I 100% believe they thought they had the best offer. KW's reaction was an emotional "How could you not accept our great offer!" one, within the hour of it being announced. His immediate, no time to think through the reaction response was "Our offer could have been worth more than that it was a better offer".
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It has come out from places other than the White Sox, it seems believable. Frankly, from KW's reaction yesterday I was surprised that their offer was that bad. I would 100% bet that the 7/$175 offer was real, maybe with some options at the end, and at the time Machado's side was asking for 10/$350 or something like that. So, the White Sox thought they were doing him a huge huge favor with an offer at $250.
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My no sauces view is that they were all in agreement. Go look at their reactions yesterday, they thought they had the best contract offer, they thought they were doing Machado a favor with a $250 million guarantee and those options. They thought there were no other teams close even when they were told other teams were close and even when they offered to sign for a $300 million guarantee. Kenny Williams was angry that they turned him down because he genuinely thought that offer was better than $300 million, Rick Hahn was stunned. They just don't understand baseball very well, which is pretty bad for a baseball team.
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74 not 84.
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Before you say they aren’t moving, imagine another 10 years of this first. Their stadium deal has a decade left on it and no one would ever break that sweetheart lease. this is already not the fan base of 2005, they have spent 6 years as the worst team in baseball and missed the playoffs 10 straight. Double that. Is there a fan base left to buy tickets for a winner? I don’t believe so. then, throw in the state refusing to offer another sweetheart deal for a stadium and another city offering one. Rick and Jerry have paved this team a clear path out of town and right now there are few detours, and only Rick has the directions.
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Over the past 6 years, I have “signing pre arbitration guys to below market deals” as the one thing they have done well. Without any pre arb guys coming up after Anderson, there’s no one else they could do that with. Have they done anything else well?
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In the fangraphs valuations Machado has been worth $50 million for 3 of the last 4 seasons. Those years at the end of a contract are a way for the team to spread the risk later, without having to offer him $200 million over the next 4. They help the team in a deal like this: you want the player now but you don’t want to pay that price per WAR right now. Machado and Harper are unique in that their ages drop the risk in those later years even more.
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That still doesn’t answer the question?
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That doesn’t answer the question. If we didn’t sell those players, do you see a way around and endless rebuilding? I don’t. If you do, tell us? In my eyes, holding onto those players leaves us literally right here, in endless rebuilding by 2019 and a 90+ loss team, except without Eloy or Cease.
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Serious question, what would you think was better, playing out 2017 without selling Sale or Eaton but with no major acquisitions (their payroll was at $120 million and Fulmer was their best trade asset), then having Quintana fall apart Eaton get hurt, Frazier and Cabrera hit FA with no replacements after 2017 and no money to spend, and gradually falling into the 60s in the win column by 2018... Or this? i don’t know. In that scenario we are looking at a 68 win team with Sale a year from FA and maybe a bum shoulder,.
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Now that I've had a chance to think about things...
Balta1701 replied to KnightsOnMintSt's topic in Pale Hose Talk
When asked last fall I said they were the worst in baseball. Now y’all understand. And I’m sorry. -
The Phillies might try to save $10 million but they’re not stupid enough to lose out on that caliber of player over something so minor. They will know that $330 is likely a great deal for that player.
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I am too far away to buy tickets at their park but I won’t be going to an astros white Sox game this year. I know that doesn’t matter but it’s something. More personally, this will be the first season I can remember, in more than at least 20 years, probably 30, that I won’t be wearing white Sox gear on opening day. Again they don’t care but that matters to me.
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Normally I'd say I'd rather keep the money, but f*** it, it's not like this organization has any idea what to do with that anyway.
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Now that I've had a chance to think about things...
Balta1701 replied to KnightsOnMintSt's topic in Pale Hose Talk
What you don't realize from your list is why that type of list made Machado or Harper SUCH a perfect acquisition. There's a lot of guys in this organization who are likely to be at least decent, cheap big league players, but even with major talents it's tough to get true stars. Take Rodon - huge talent, top 20 prospect or so when he was drafted, but he's been a mid-rotation pitcher at best, and you've got him in the middle of your rotation. The White Sox will probably get a star or two out of these guys (Eloy). They will almost certainly get a number of decent players out of them, particularly since there is depth. But that does not put you at the level of the Cubs or Astros or Yankees or Red Sox. That does not make a superteam. The beauty of Harper or Machado was - because there is good depth and a number of youngsters around, we have the money to go after a singularly high level performer. A guy hitting free agency at 26 who, if we plug them into the roster, will take over one position and make that position great. Now we've got that position filled with a great player for years, a great player who should not fall off any time soon, and teamed with the star or two (Eloy) that we develop and a number of decent players...we've got something that could be a great team. Once we missed on that, it's possible for us to develop several stars, but that is now entirely on our org's scouting and development. Having that much depth was our way out of having to play the mid-level of the free agent market. It was our way to avoid signing the next Yu Darvish, to avoid signing the next Jay Bruce, to avoid signing the next Melky Cabrera, to avoid signing the next Adam LaRoche. We have the depth where we don't need those guys, we have the depth where guys like Pollock or Keuchel are poor fits for us because we have someone to cover those positions cheaply. We can go out, identify one of the top players in baseball, a guy hitting free agency at age 26, and get something truly unique. But we didn't do it. Now we need this team to be better at player development than they ever have been. -
I think if they knew, they'd care, because that's actually their money. Several hundred thousand fewer tickets sold is money out of their pockets. The TV packages, the ads, the merchandise that isn't purchased - that's their money.
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$250/8 with 2 option years for Gritty and I think we're go.
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Even a fair contract for them is a poor contract for this franchise. Congratulations, you spent $25 million on them, and your team will now win 70 games next year instead of 67. This is the type of success you wanted to bring with that money and a great value, right?
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I don't know about worse, but I think comparable. The attendance in 1997 was 1.8 million, 1998 it was 1.3 million. I think they did something comparable. I usually make an effort to go to an away game per year, maybe 2, but after this? Ha, they actually cost the Astros money.
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If they can't sign Harper they shouldn't sign anyone. They have a reasonable option to fill every position and a long-term plan for those positions once they move Moncada to 3b. No other option is a better use of money, and if positions of need to appear they could just fill it with a mid-level free agent next offseason for the same type of price.
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Deep down, I do not believe they understand what they did to the fanbase this offseason. I do not believe they will have any idea until they see next year's season ticket renewals.
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I think we actually do know that because Lozano came down to $300 on Monday from their previous asks. Whatever level that was - the Padres weren't willing to meet it, and no other team was. Sometime last week Lozano offered $325 or something in that range, the Padres responded with $280, Lozano called around to see if anyone would beat $280. Then on Monday he called around and offered $300.
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I know that, but that would be the reason. Offer him the most money. After all, poor little ricky couldn't have been lying yesterday when he said the money would be spent, right?
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$400 million.
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They called over the weekend and said the Padres were at $280, and they called on Monday and said $300 million yes or no will you take it, and you said no. So good work ignoring those communications to offer less money.
