NorthSideSox72

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 02:31 PM) IMO, Obama's only chance from this point on is if Indy's and everyone on the Dem side who is anti-Hillary rallies around him. I'm just not sure it's enough. I can't figure out where you are getting this idea about it being a Hillary viictory already. Let's consider this... --Obama has a big lead in SC --Obama picked up two big union endorsements to help NV --The large national lead Clinton had is gone - national polls now show a tie, give or take - as an indicator of Super Tuesday's likely outcome --Obama is raising tons of cash --Indications are that Clinton may have won NH on the shoulders of a poorly designed ballot --Obama is about to pick up John Kerry's endorsement --Clinton's negatives are huge, and her head-to-heads indicate she is the one Dem who is likely to lose in November - Superdelegates know this The only iffy things for Obama are Richardson being likely to endorse Clinton, and Clinton's momentum from a narrow victory in NH. Obama is a crapshoot for either one. If you ask me, its a very close race, with Obama having a slight edge right now.

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 02:10 PM) By the way -- how's your arm, Matt. I'm going on 2 years since the surgery, its feelin' fine. Ready to pitch if needed.

Obama apparently raking in the cash - over a million dollars a day in the new year, including 500k in the first 12 hours of today (after losing NH).

QUOTE(Alpha Dog @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 02:02 PM) I don't think the unions care about the legality of the people when they take their dues. But stranger thnkgs have happened, I guess. The unions work to get their folks benefits, certain legal rights, protection during strikes... and they like to have the voting bloc. None of those things can occur easily for illegals. Its possible there are some in there, but I'd guess most illegals don't join unions or anything else that would draw scrutiny.

OK so, in 2007 I didn't get to play on a softball team, for the first time since college. I was not happy. My new company is based outside Chicago, so a company team is out for me (I had coached my company team previously). So here goes... who would want to put together a team to play in the spring/summer in the city? I'm talking 16" here, by the way, none of that sissy 12" crap. Or alternately, if you already have a team but may be short some players, maybe you could use a few free agents from here? I have a few people from my last company's team as well that I can round up, some being very good players. Maybe we can even get a bar to sponsor us and pay for t-shirts. If this might interest you come April/May or so, sound off in the thread. We'll see if this gets any interest. If it does, maybe we can talk about getting a team together.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 01:39 PM) Florida doesnt count. They were stripped of their delegates and few are on the ballot. Clinton i believe is still on it (probably just to get some pub for winning a state, even if it isnt contested) Oh, I knew about Michigan, but I wasn't aware of Florida. Interesting. Thanks.

QUOTE(Alpha Dog @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 01:39 PM) I wonder how many of those culinary workers are eligible to vote? Its a union. I am sure there are plenty of illegals working in those kitchens, but I bet they aren't union.

You be the judge. I think she's awesome.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 12:32 PM) Obama just picked up the service workers union endorsement. No link, but i just heard it on MSNBC. QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 01:27 PM) culinary workers endorsed Obama, Those are huge for Nevada. It almost seems now like these early states are becoming a contest to get Edwards' votes. He may prefer to endorse whomever he thinks has the hot hand. Either candidate sweeping SC and NV would be huge for them.

QUOTE(flavum @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 01:04 PM) I've heard he's having trouble getting out of the Dominican, with Visa issues or whatever. I would assume it'll be finalized in the next two weeks. Where did you hear that? Anything we can look at? And welcome to the board!

QUOTE(Texsox @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 12:59 PM) Looking over the list of black congressional members, the South does seem to have elected more black members than the north. I'm not certain that in today's south, it will be any better or worse for him. I tend to agree - I think the two factors I noted sort of balance each other out at this point (more or less). My predictions have been on and off so far, but, here goes... --Clinton's "new" image will win a few hearts and minds, but repel some others. Overall net effect will be slightly positive. --Obama will make slight changes too - more about hope than change, and more substantive speeches - less flowery ones. --Obama's large lead in SC polls won't hold entirely, but it will hold enough, and he'll beat out Clinton by 5 points or so in SC on the 19th. --Edwards will recover a bit of strength in SC with the week and a half to be there, but still not get better than 20%, and will be well down into 3rd place. --Nevada I need to see polls on, but, given Obama's flash-and-dash abilities when needed, and some big union endorsements, and a few other big names (John Kerry) that will be announced with him soon, he'll be competitive there. Clinton has the Reid machine at her disposal though. I think Nevada will be very close - too close for me to even guess. --I give a 1-in-3 chance that Edwards drops out after SC/NV (he won't show well in NV). If he does and endorses either candidate, at that point, his endorsed candidate has about a 90% chance of winning the nomination. But if he doesn't... --That leaves just Florida before Super Tuesday (among states that count - Michigan has been left out because of their screw-up). Clinton had a huge lead there for some time, hovering around 20 to 30 points, in polls through early December. But the only one published since then, which was done after Iowa (on 1/7), shows that lead cut to 7. So Florida is huge. Assuming Edwards is still in it, the winner of Florida becomes the clear favorite going into Super Tuesday. --One more small wrench - Bill Richardson. He's only drawing about 5% now in most states - less than that in SC, but more in NV probably. But even that 5% could be a big difference. If he drops out and endorses someone prior to Super Tuesday, that could be the difference-maker in states like NV and FL, both of which he should play well in.

Ramirez was supposed to have a physical shortly after New Year's, before the deal was finalized. Anyone heard if that went through OK?

QUOTE(Texsox @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 12:22 PM) Isn't that a shame? I agree with your assessment, but God help us for judging a candidate for reasons unrelated to their abilities in fulfilling their Oath of Office. And in both directions. In every state, but sadly more so in the south, there will be an element of racism that will hurt Obama, and Richardson. But, and probably just as bad, there are some in SC who will vote for Obama because he IS black. It shouldn't matter, but it does, to some folks. The one good thing from all this is that it clearly matters to a lot fewer people than it did a few decades ago - otherwise Obama would not be in it.

QUOTE(Reddy @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 12:10 PM) but now Obama's gonna have a harder time swinging the black vote in SC - they LOVE the Clintons and now they have a reason to vote for them. Also, it's proof of how much implicit racism still exists. In a caucus that disappears because you have to stand in front of your friends and say whom you support. In a primary it's you alone with your thoughts. In canvassing I met people who said "my dad doesnt think a black man should be president". yeah... you're dad AND you. It's real and it's gonna get MORE real in the south. I really don't think Obama can win this thing. and as for Edwards - he's gonna stay in till the convention. He's not far behind on delegates right now and he's gonna have leverage that way. And I'm all for it. I'd rather have Hillary be the nom than Obama so I love that he'll help keep Obama down. Obama wouldn't win against McCain in November. Obama wouldn't win against Huckabee. Not ONLY is he black but the GOP doesn't play nice - they'd rip him apart. Then when he tries to fight back he'll mess up his "nice guy" image. He's screwed. Your views on elections in November seem to be the opposite of reality. Obama has better head-to-head numbers than everyone else in the field. He is beating everyone GOP by a wide margin, except McCain, who he is close with. Edwards is behind Giuliani and close with McCain. And actually, both of them do better than Hillary. So its not Edwards-Clinton-Obama in electability - its Obama-Edwards-Clinton. As for racism, I don't doubt it will play a role - but as Obama is well ahead in SC polls, I think at the very least, its not going to keep him from winning. Other factors will be more important. And what makes you think SC loves the Clintons?

QUOTE(Reddy @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 12:05 PM) do you realize how horribly backwards that is???? Obama the king of rhetoric? Edwards had an 80 page policy book out months before Obama got his little pamphlet together. They both have policy "books" out there, as do other candidates to varying extents. They also both make short speeches, like last night, that don't go into specifics. But the in between stuff - debates, longer speeches - Obama has been much more specific than Edwards. This is my observation.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 10:18 AM) Remember, NV is a caucus. So, you could see something similar to what happened in Iowa were people flip to Obama Edwards as a second choice. And if Edwards isnt viable, that could be a huge boost to Obama. That's true. And I also think we'll see how Hillary's new girlish charm attempts go over in the next week. It may work for her, or it may backfire.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 10:24 AM) Ya know... i got thinking last night, does it prove just how "unlikable" or "unelectable" Hillary is if she has to bring out Bill to make major pushes for her? I know Michelle Obama is speaking for Barack, but Bill is a HUGE draw. I bet a lot of voters are voting for him, not her. Of course they are. Nevermind that Hillary is NOT Bill, but that is a huge part of her draw. And this is one of the reasons why you hear a lot of complaints from the conservatives about the Clintons making an end-run on the Constitution - getting back into the Oval Office again.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 10:10 AM) You saw the Clinton machine in action. That. Plus, these sorts of "shifts" will occur for a number of candidates from now until after Super Tuesday. Obama will probably now change his buzzwords - his "change" thing has been ripped off, now its "Yes We Can" or whatever. He will probably also get a little more specific in his speeches on his plans - instead of leaving the specific to his policy documents. Basically, they all adapt to the perceived shortcomings. Hillary was thought to be too cold and unlikeable - so she has now "transformed" herself to be softer, more heartfelt, in her speeches. I watched her last night after the win, and sure enough, she changed her whole demeanor - her tone and pitch of speech, her body language, even her hair and makeup. She is a master and playing the game.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 09:49 AM) Edwards is killing Obama. There is no way that his 15% would have went mostly to Clinton. I've been considering this. The conventional thinking is that Edwards is taking more votes from Obama than from Clinton. I am not so sure. I think they might be about split. But in either case, if Edwards drops out after SC and gives his 15%-ish nationally to either candidate, that candidate will most likely win.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 9, 2008 -> 08:58 AM) Man the polls ended up being absolutely worthless in NH. That was something like a 15 point swing in one day from the major polls. About a 10 point swing, and actually, the Suffolk/WNH polls (local) had it close to right. Everyone else was wrong. And this is no more over now than it was after Iowa. Watch what happens after SC and NV - whomever does best that day, the media will say they have it in hand. They just sway with the wind. This is far from over. Edwards will, as others have said, probably be the kingmaker. He's only pulling about 15% in SC right now, where he was born. If he can't do better than that, he'll probably drop out and crown someone at that point. If someone can do well in SC and NV, and get Edwards' support - THEN its over.

Balta, this doesn't win it for Hillary any more than Iowa won it for Obama. MI is irrelevant (as Rex said), so SC and NV are big. If Clinton sweeps those, then I think Obama is on the ropes. If Obama wins both, Clinton is on the ropes. A split means Super Tuesday is really fun. By the way, that huge lead she had nationally (for Super Tuesday)? Going... gone. Super Tuesday is very much an open question.

QUOTE(spiderman @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 10:24 PM) They are both about change, but Obama tends to be less specific and extremely positive in the speeches I've seen, and Edwards tends to be more specific, and extremely angry in his speeches that I've heard. I don't see that at all. Edwards is specific about his history and his upbringing, and about random people suffering, but he says absolutely nothing about policy. Obama is far more specific on that than Edwards or Clinton. The only candidate left for the Dems who is more specific on issues than Obama is Richardson.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 10:22 PM) I think Edwards is running to be a kingmaker. That's what I've been thinking. Seems to me he is more aligned with Obama, but who knows.

QUOTE(KipWellsFan @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 10:19 PM) Did anyone, and I mean anyone, predict this? Well, when all the polls were showing Obama with a lead, Suffolk/WNHN showed a Clinton lead or a tie or close to it. They seemed to have it right. Seems like Iowa and NH have shown us that the local polling organizations (DSM Register in Iowa's case) seem to be the most reliable.

As bad as Giuliani is about 9/11 this and 9/11 that... both Edwards' are just as bad about working in that damn mill.