NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 03:15 PM) I don't think Hawkins' BABIP is that high. A .350 BABIP, especially for a guy who hits the ball as hard as Courtney, is perfectly reasonable. Yeah, that was kinda what I said. It is high, but given the other measures, it isn't out of reasonable range.

On that note though, what's interesting to me is, everyone was hyping the W-S lineup going into the season, with May, Anderson, Hawkins and Barnum at the top (and some other semi-interesting prospects like Coats and DeMichele in there too). Their numbers so far: May: .127/.225/.190, 26.4% K/PA, .182 BABIP, .063 IsoSLG Anderson: .265/.292/.485, 30.6% K/PA, .370 BABIP, .221 IsoSLG Hawkins: .294/.338/.588, 28.3% K/PA, .349 BABIP, .294 IsoSLG Barnum: .156/.217/.219, 43.5%, .294 BABIP, .063 IsoSLG There are four different stories there. May's BABIP is extremely low, and the K rate isn't terribly bad, which indicate some bad luck involved. He's also still walking at a decent clip, a good sign. But the much lower Iso Slugging vs last year indicates he likely isn't hitting many balls hard, so my view is, any "bad luck" is limited and he really is struggling to make hard contact. Anderson's high IsoSLG indicates he's hitting the ball hard. But his K rate is getting into iffy territory, and that BABIP is way too high - so I'd expect some regression there. He's also not walking much which further indicates some likely regression. Hawkins' K rate, while high, is much better than last year and not totally awful anymore. His BABIP is high-ish but not hugely so. And his Iso SLG says he is hitting the ball plenty hard. Those all indicate he's maybe got some sustainable numbers there, though the BABIP likely regresses some. Barnum is just bad across the board. Tons of strikeouts, with an average BABIP (give or take), low slugging differential so he's not hitting the ball hard. He's walking some but not a ton. He looks overmatched to me. Caveat Umptor: These are all small sample sizes still.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:59 PM) Is anyone concerned about the general trend in this farm system of striking out at an unbelievable rate? Hawkins gets all the attention in this regard, but there is a good group that makes him look good: Jared Mitchell 56.8% Keon Barnum 47.5% Keenan Walker 46.8% Matt Davidson 45.3% Jacob Morris 41.1% Trey Michalzewski 39.2% Adam Engel 33.9% Tim Anderson 32.8% Courtney Hawkins 31.3% Only Anderson, Mitchell, and Hawkins counteract this with a decent OPS. How are you calculating K rate? Usually K/PA is the most useful number. On that, Hawkins for example is at 28.3%. That's actually a substantial improvement from 37.6% last year. K/PA gives you a much more accurate idea of their rate because if you use K/AB, you are penalizing guys who take walks, and walks are the other major indicator of plate discipline.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) This is a season where the Sox are first in runs scored and last in runs allowed, and Tyler Flowers is leading the league in AVG. Nothing will surprise me now. My thoughts exactly.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:17 PM) He has a career 9.0 SO/9 and 2.4 BB/9 rate and has only allowed six home runs over 122.2 innings. He just recently turned 21 and is flourishing in a new role starting this year. He doesn't have ace upside, but he could certainly be a solid rotation member in a system that is sorely lacking quality pitching depth. I doubt he stays a starter. I think he's the classic White Sox reliever spending time as a starter to get better at pitching, vs throwing.

If Rondon hits, he's obviously a guy who can move up the lists quickly. Michalczewski looks good so far too, could see him moving up, though he's not really a dark horse. Pitchers like Montas and Lopez will be back from injury soon and could move up quickly. If you want a super-dark horse, I'm a fan of Recchia's, even though he should really be in AA or AAA age-wise. I think he sees AA this year. Going into the year I thought Ravelo could be a surprise guy, and he still might, though he's started a bit slow. Hansen and Andrew Mitchell good candidates too. With all the guys who will likely graduate from the the FS list by July: Abreu (1), Johnson (2), Davidson maybe (3), Semien (4), Webb (11), Petricka (15), maybe more... there should be room for a lot of guys to move up.

W-S roster now at 24, but Hardin is on the DL, so he's likely taking that spot back when he returns. They made his DL retro a few days back, so he's likely back soon. If not, might see someone like Montas come from AZ.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 09:28 AM) He's pitching his way to being reassigned to the bullpen to salvage his career. Can anyone comment towards his velocity this year? He was hitting 95 in years past so he could fathomably be of service to the big league team. Everyone always needs left handed bullpen guys. Early in the season he was way below that, but that may have been a stretching-out thing. Haven't heard any recent readings.

No one looks ready today. I went Davidson, Phegley and Thompson. But for Davidson and Phegley, it is under the assumption it is later in the year, and that they have improved on key things for each of them. Thing is, there are other guys, particularly pitchers, I'd rather see than anyone offered on the list. Javy Guerra is A#1 for me right now. Also Rienzo but he's already there. Love what Micah is doing, but I'm still a ways from seeing him being ready for MLB, primarily for defensive reasons. Also in his case, there are others ahead of him that should have that time on the infield, barring some trades or injuries. For the person who asked, Bassitt told us he had a non-serious, non-baseball injury, and he'd be back very soon. Though that was a couple weeks ago, so... not really sure.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:43 PM) I liked the pick as well and he's showing what you want from a young hitter: walks and average. His contact rate is actually low so maybe the average will fall, but even for a power prospect I want to see on-base skills. Power comes last. Patience can be developed as well, but it's always better to start with it. As a sidenote, I got a laugh out of that scouting blurb. The expected athleticism of a high school tight end? Clearly this guy hasn't seen the same high school tight ends I have. High school shortstop says more about his athleticism than high school tight end. Brad Goldberg 5 K, 1 BB tonight in 6 IP. He has 16 K and 6 BB in 19.1 IP, but a 6.52 ERA. We may need to stick to raw K:BB numbers for the Dash pitching staff if their defense is as bad as the error total. Kanny's starting infield has 26 errors combined. Unearned runs help pitchers' stats a bit, but if they are bad defenders, you also need to factor for the balls they aren't even getting to and aren't errors. Wendelken (17 K, 2 BB in 22.1 IP, 3.63 ERA), Bucciferro (8 K, 1 BB in 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA) and Recchia (21 K, 5 BB in 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA) also seem to have higher ERAs than their peripherals would indicate. Good point about the pitchers. Gives me a story idea.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:44 PM) Thx. Jaye pulled after 2IP, 50 pitches. Wondering if hurt or just stinkage of performance. Thought I saw Montas slotted for Dash, unless mistaken. Loving this, Trayce, please maintain. Not sure where Montas is slotted, that's an open question. Same for Lopez and Brennan. All three should be coming back as starters. Lopez should really be at W-S, Montas is 50/50, Brennan likely KAN. But those are all just my guesses.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:24 PM) And they aren't going to have any money to spend with only 10k a night showing up. Oh come on now. It's April, and an April that has been part of the coldest spring I can remember. You can't really think that continues all year.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:55 AM) Already started in B'Ham, and Jaye already letting me down. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?c...mp;ymd=20140421 Surkamp, Goldberg and ? in Kanny. Dykstra and Danish are going to have 9-10 days between starts, due to rainouts, if Kanny doesn't move things around. Mitchell for Kanny. Dykstra and Danish after that, then TBA x2, per their PR guy. Kanny may elect to go filler-types for a few starts, because likely one or both of those slots is taken up within the next month by Brandon Brennan and/or Francelis Montas, who are both finishing up rehab in Extended ST. Matt Ball also a possibility, he's in AZ converting to a starting role.

People should not read anything into Beckham's rehab numbers, for a whole list of reasons. Same goes for Semien's MLB D. In both cases, sample size is waaaaaaaaaay to small.

Even with a decline in attendance and ad revenue... with the fact that salary obligations for next year are only around $50M, and the TV money boost from MLB, I'd say there is zero chance they don't spend some significant money this coming offseason. They may not be at $100M+, but I'd be shocked if they were lower than, say, $80M.

I mentioned this on the last Podcast we did... Beck is, in a few key ways, a lot like Charlie Shirek. Both can reach mid-90's with a heavy fastball, both are sinker-ballers who get good ground ball rates, both rely heavily on control for success, both were drafted lower than their one-time stock had dictated and were taken as buy-low guys, but had K rates just too low to be relied upon. Before anyone flips out... They are built differently (Shirek was smaller and had a high-effort delivery), and Shirek was a Top-3 round guy taken 7th, whereas Beck was a top 10 overall guy taken in the 2nd, so the comparison isn't perfect by any stretch. Just pointing out some interesting parallels there. I do think Beck, since he doesn't have to work as hard to get the same velocity and is still young, has plenty of chance to improve.

Read a little about James Dysktra, from James Dysktra.

Thanks everyone for the ideas. Dykstra interview done, will publish Monday morning. Hopefully we get a bunch of other interviews in this year - we did 25 players and 3 managers last year.

Well that's all pretty depressing. Anyone want a stack of cards? LOL QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 05:47 PM) Nobody wants your 1990 Carnie Lansford card NSS Just picked up a stack, flipped to first 1990 card to pop up and it is... INF Kent Anderson, Angels. Who?

So when I was younger, I collected cards, lots of them. I sold most of them when I went off to college in '91, though I kept 3 (Fisk signed rookie, a '57 Mantle card I found in an alley, and one of the Billy Ripken f***Face cards). Well, apparently I missed some, found them in my parents' attic. A few hundred of them. Among them are a Topps '90 Frank Thomas (rookie I believe), some sort of hologram card of Thomas from 1991, rookie cards for people like Bobby Thigpen, and a whole bunch of other cards mostly in the '87-'92 range. I know NOTHING about how the baseball card market is nowadays. Anyone have any advice on where I can look these sorts of things up, and find a way to sell them? Or if anyone even buys cards anymore, other than extreme rarities? I also have two unopened Desert Storm trading card packs from '90.

One pitcher each was moved up one level from each affiliate - de los Santos to AAA, Crawford to AA, Bierman to A+, Abramson to A. Charlotte's roster WAS a full 25 before this move. Even money says someone is headed to Chicago, especially after that affair last night.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) So has their been anything on Micker Adolpho? Was in the minor league camp this spring? Is he at extended spring training? Is he in the DR? Does it seem like he will play rookie ball this year? No word I've seen, but last I knew he was in extended ST. Bell's last word last year was he'd be with the new AZL Sox this year. They start play in June.

Roster moves, may presage a Chicago move... de los Santos to Charlotte Crawford to Birmingham Bierman to Winston-Salem Abramson from extended to Kannapolis

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 16, 2014 -> 11:41 AM) If the Sox had another starter I'm pretty certain they could hang with KC. If Detroit regresses who knows. Leyland's a smart guy when it comes to knowing when to walk away . . . I think they can "hang" with KC right now, but I also don't think KC is going to be all that good in the long run this year. Pitching clearly is the problem so far, but I think we're going to find "another starter" within the rotation, because I doubt both Paulino and Johnson will keep struggling as badly.

Hawkins has clearly made some good adjustments - but we'll see how sustainable the hot start is and how much he's really accomplished over the next few months. I wouldn't read too much into Goldberg's line, or his core stats generally. Think of him like Nate Jones or Jake Petricka, he's a likely reliever who is getting quicker pitching training. Off chance he actually succeeds as a starter, and that's great, but really this is a development exercise.