NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Butter Parque @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:53 PM) Does anyone know anything about the development of guys like Antonio Rodriguez, Victor Done, Luis Castillo, Johan Cruz, Hanleth Otano, etc. Are they coming to the States this season? Most have played some DSL ball, none have put up numbers that stand out, except maybe Rodriguez. Rodriguez also played briefly at Bristol, didn't do so well. They are all still very young and raw, and it is too early to say how they are doing. There may be a better read in some scouting reports, but those reports from the DSL are hard to come by. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 24, 2014 -> 12:02 AM) I think this is a really good list. Just looking at the honorable mention section shows you how much deeper our system has gotten. I will say that Keenyn Walker & Braulio Ortiz are the biggest position player and pitching omissions IMO. A couple of us ranked Ortiz in the T25, some did not. Walker is an impressive athlete with serious speed, but there's no power there, and he couldn't hit for average either last year. He strikes out a ton. There is potential there, but he needs to hit for a high average to be successful. Hopefully he does in 2014 - he is still somewhat raw and fought through some injuries last year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) Josh Phegley attempting PED's is a recipe for Josh Phegley's funeral. Yeah, I've said before, I'd be more confident in him being clean than just about anyone. People with auto-immune and blood disorders would have to think long and hard before pumping nitro through their engine. They would be at huge risk of, well, death. I just don't see it with him. Nothing is impossible, but if I had to bet on one prospect being definitelty clean, he'd likely be it.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) His 2012 is probably a better offensive year than any sox farm hand has had in this system. Or one of the top few at least. And he's still a young guy (and could potentially play CF so positional value as well). Last year KW alluded to him being purposely steered toward a lowered K rate. as an intentioned thing. Unfortunately cost him power but perhaps for a greater good. With some players you have to take routes like this Also, Thompson's ceiling is akin to Hawkins, there is a lot of potential there. He dropped quite a bit on our list, but you can't dismiss him yet with those tools.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 23, 2014 -> 09:16 AM) Random musings: -I think I would have a hard time ranking Ravelo and definitely Montas in out system's top 25. I certainly wouldn't consider either to be the prospect tgat Engel is, who is behind them. No way am I buying into Montas at 20. -I would have a tough time ranking Zapata too but that has less to do with his ability and more of where's he's at. - 1 through 16 I could see all those guys become good major league contributors and most of them soon. Our system has come a ways in a year. - top 10 looks good but personally I'd have Johnson at 6 and probably switched with Hawkins. Really like Micah and am surprised not to see him get more love. -the top 4 should be set in stone. Ravelo is a hard one to evaluate. His hit tool and batter's eye, especially for his age and level, are truly special. And the doubles indicate there is gap power there. Being a former 3B, his defense will probably be at least decent at 1B. The question is entirely about power - can he hit more home runs? That is the big question. Montas' fastball isn't just good. He's one of only a few guys in the minors who is consistently upper 90's, and it has movement too. In addition to a BP writer salivating over it (and putting him among their Top 10 in the system), I talked with a scout in Kanny who called it filthy. And his breaking pitches, while inconsistent, do move around a lot. There is a lot of potential there, even if the numbers don't show it. Micah Johnson is a very nice prospect, but he did struggle a bit going to A+, at an age-appropriate time, so there is reason to not put him quite that high yet.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 05:07 PM) I'm not against letting the coaching staff evaluate and allow production to (an extent) dictate the winner of that position. I guess my argument is mainly that we can't ignore those numbers, even if we do take into account the very meaningful health obstacles. When we try to decide if the beginning of his 2013 is meaningful, we look at whatever other evidence we have...and that evidence is bleak. Incomplete, certainly. Given the other "healthy version of Phegley" evidence we have is him being MLB's worst hitter and trying to set records for passed balls allowed, I honestly don't want to see him anywhere near the MLB roster before he hits well in AAA again. Of course, even if he starts to see some of that upside as a hitter, I am seriously worried about his value as a defender. It seems like scouts have always wanted to discount his good throwing numbers, but even if those will persist, the PB issue is mindblowing. Can we teach him not to do that? How do you teach a catcher to...catch? Defense is definitely my big concern with him, no argument there at all. If he can't improve a lot on what he did in the majors defensively, he can't stick, even as a backup. Given the fact that BP, scouts and others said he'd improved his defense significantly in AAA, there is the chance that some of what we saw was nerves. Time will tell.

Full T25 is now up, being discussed in the pinned thread in PHT.

FutureSox has released their 2014 Pre-season Top 25 Prospects list. Article includes capsules for the Top 10, lists the 11-25 names, and a handful of guys who just missed the cut. We published the 11-25 capsules earlier this week, in case you want more detail on those 15 names. Normally we do prospect talk in the FutureSox area of the site, but for the twice-annual rankings, we put it in PHT for broader discussion. Let us know what you think.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) Paulino isn't expected to be ready by opening day right? Mixed reports, as cited here. If Paulino is healthy, it is his job to lose.

Wow, that's a good detailed write-up Jake. Really though, you are reinforcing everything I said, except trying to put overall hitting values on his years in the minors. You have to take his history into account, you cannot look at overall hitting numbers per-level with him and have it make any sense.

Paulino (if healthy), Rienzo and Surkamp are all intriguing #5 options. No problem signing someone long-shot for a comeback, but likely they will fall away. I don't see the Sox signing anyone significant RHP starter-wise at this point.

QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) Did everyone forget that for how bad Phegley was defensively, Flowers was probably worse? If neither are good at catching, I'll go with the younger guy with more upside. Flowers was better defensively. Phegley's arm may make him better at stopping baserunners eventually, but in 2013, Flowers was without a doubt a stronger defensive catcher. Phegley won a defensive award in AAA, but mostly on his arm - so he's improved over time, but is not yet at Flowers' level.

(catching discussion was good, moved it to a new thread)...

Asked a historian my own question from earlier - has any catcher gone A ball to MLB and stuck for at least a season. Found... one. Butch Wynegar, in 1976. And he put up monster numbers that dwarf anything Nieto has every done offensively. There don't seem to be any other examples. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 02:11 PM) With any of these Rule 5 guys, it really shouldn't be hard to acquire them outright from their original clubs. They've spent 3-4 years and have not been added to the roster. Most of these teams will not think that highly of them and they'll trade for them a song. Exactly, and I think that is their plan, unless Nieto blows them away. They are treating Rule V much like the amateur draft, except with the added hurdle of the 40 man requirement behind it (he'll have to be on the 40 even if they acquire him in a trade). It is a good $25k gamble, and there may already been ground work for the trade in place based on how he does.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 02:00 PM) It isn't about the money. It is about getting more catching talent into the system. If they think he will be a player in 15/16/17, they will keep him. 2014 doesn't really matter, so if he doesn't play a lot, they aren't going to care. 1. Even if it should be that way, I don't see the Sox deciding that 2014 is a lost year. Every indication says otherwise. 2. If they think he will be an MLB player in 15/16/17, then hiding him on the MLB bench does very little to help that - a lot less than putting him at AA then AAA the next year or two. So it stunts his development. That's why they will care. 3. No one is contesting that they are trying to get more catching talent in the system. The question is, what is their plan? I think him making the major league roster is a long shot and I think they are smart enough to see that. Therefore, that isn't what they think is likely. Going down that road, they obviously have a backup plan that is likely to come up, and the most logical one is the path I mentioned.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) Unless the guy just absolutely flops and the organization can't stand him, I can't see them drafting him only to give him back quickly. Nieto is the one catcher I would bet is on the opening day roster. How many position players, let alone catchers (a much more complex position) have gone from A ball to a full year in the majors? I'd be surprised if it was more than a couple times, ever. I think the Sox will try to work out a trade to keep him and send him to AA. Spring Training is basically a $25,000 audition, think of it like a low-level amateur draft pick at that money. Worst case, he's gone, and they spent 25k, which they spend on a few dozen draft picks a year. The other likely scenario, they like him, they work out a trade for him. The Sox won't fret much over $25k here. They'll take who make sense, and unless Nieto is a beast in Arizona, it won't be him. That's my prediction.

As for the 2014 catching situation, I think Nieto has a near-zero chance of sticking. The guy hasn't played above A ball. He'll be offered back to the original club, and the Sox will lose him, unless they work out a trade (which may happen) to allow him to go back down to AA. That means Flowers and Phegley again. And I think Phegley should be the starter in that scenario, if he can look at least somewhat competent defensively.

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 01:44 PM) Damn that is sobering and depressing. It kinda puts a damper on #PhegleyFacts hashtag. Also not terribly accurate, as I noted. Phegley is not a normal case - you have to know the history to understand his situation. He's actually overachieved with the bat at each level, relative to his development experience. The only factor of doubt is a lack of walks. His Iso SLG has been decent to very good. His contact rate has been solid.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 01:06 PM) I'm rooting for Phegley and it isn't impossible that he succeeds, but he is not and has never been a good prospect. He's small, he had never produced at any level until repeating AAA for the third season at age 25, and he is not a good defender. These things have always been true of him. He's had health problems, but he's also never done much. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's a guy who at his best looks unlikely to be much better than average with a negative value defense, decent arm but not an amazing record of throwing runners out, and a bat that has traditionally been low average, very low OBP, and low power. I don't think anyone is putting all their eggs in that basket, certainly not long term, but I do disagree with this assessment of Phegley. The injury history is not some small side item to consider. You have to look at his full history. He was sent straight to A ball upon draft, which is done only very rarely in most organizations, and certainly isn't typical for a supplemental pick. Despite that, as a 21 year old just drafted, he didn't completely embarass himself at Kanny, and in fact put up a .408 SLG with a resonable K rate. That is a success. In 2010 he hit .292 in A+ and AA but lost most of the year with ITP, a condition that was very serious. Then, despite having only about 400 professional plate appearances (that is less than a full season), he started 2011 at AA - again an enormous jump considered his development time. Between AA and AAA that year, he put up a mid-600's OPS, playing most of a season. Finally in 2012, he was at AAA with less than 900 PA - less than two full seasons. Predictably his numbers weren't great (.680 OPS), but again his contact rate was good. Finally, he was at AAA in 2013 at a nearly-expected level of professional at bats, and was healthy a full season, and guess what? He raked. His entire history says he is likely to hit well, though he does need to lay off more pitches and take some walks. There is every reason to believe he will hit in the majors, though no one is saying he'll be an All Star. The glove is the question. The arm is fine. Can he defend the position? That is the key for him. If he can be average at that, he can be a starting C, in my view.

7/155 with a player opt-out, plus another 20M to Japan? LOL, have fun with that NYY. You can have him.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 03:02 PM) Darvish Iwakuma Kuroda Hideo Nomo Tomo Ohka had a couple good years but sucked more often than not. Then a glut of relievers Tazawa Uehara Hasegawa Kaz Sasaki Otsuka Saito The obvious failures are Dice-K, Igawa, Irabu. I'm talking starters here, I should have specified, as relievers don't make a fraction of this sort of money and won't even if they are good. Nomo I agree. Darvish so far too, but he's at 2 years now basically - so this next year will tell the tale IMO. Those are the ones I thought of. Kuroda I forgot, good call, he's been good. Iwakuma, like Darvish, is at the 2 year mark, so we'll see. Basically, we've got two starting pitchers who have come over and had successful careers more than 2 years: Nomo (which was a long time ago) and Kuroda. Two more guys appear on the verge, but the jury is still out. Then there are the failures, a number of them. We are talking about 6 years for this guy. I am not saying 100% he won't succeed long-term - I am saying the odds are very slim he will do so. Is that worth a gamble? Sure. Is it worth a $120M gamble? Not to me, no. Though I admit I haven't seen him pitch in person like (I'd hope) the Sox scouts or other reliable sources of theirs have.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) The Japanese league is considered the 2nd strongest baseball league in the world and has a decent track record of pitchers having successful transitions. We committed 68 million to a Cuban who has never seen a MLB pitch and that deal is widely applauded, I don't see the big difference in risk here. Specify "decent track record of pitchers having successful transitions". I see a group who, with only one exception I am aware of, are all pretty awful by year 2 or 3. Show me a list of Japanese pro pitchers coming over and being successful for more than about 1.5 seasons. Maybe I am missing some, beyond the one I am aware of.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 02:21 PM) HOW MANY BACKUP 1B DOES THIS ROSTER NEED AAAIIIEIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Yeah I still don't get Mike McDade being there. Wilkins makes sense to me.

Keep an eye on Kevan Smith. For a guy who most have written off (mostly due to age for level), he was invited to uber-prospect hitting camp, and now will be in big league camp in spring training, despite never playing above A+ ball. These indicate to me that the Sox believe he is a real prospect and possibly a late bloomer.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) Did you guys first discuss whether he should be included at all? EDIT: Considering how raw/uncertain his talents are as opposed to not being worthy. Yes we did. In fact, the last list we did, he had just been signed and we had so little information that we decided not to include him for that one. But we pretty much decided that anyone in the org who hasn't reached MLB rookie status is going to be eligible, barring something really unusual like that again. Abreu, Davidson, Nieto all included as eligible.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jan 21, 2014 -> 01:40 PM) The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms on minor-league contracts with right-handed pitchers Dylan Axelrod, Parker Frazier, Brian Omogrosso, Omar Poveda and Zach Putnam, left-handers David Purcey and Mauricio Robles, catcher Hector Gimenez, infielder Alex Liddi and outfielder Denis Phipps. All 10 players, in addition to 11 players within the White Sox system, have received non-roster invites to the club’s spring training camp in Glendale, Ariz. All but Robles have been announced previously. Robles is interesting.