NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 08:20 PM) haha Obama does have the most annoying supporters of all time. The Paul-bots say hello. There were just a lot fewer of them.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 10:17 PM) Things you never knew about... So, effectively, they are a nation controlled by a corporation. One that Americans buy products from, under the illusion that its more environmentally friendly. f***ing awesome. I don't buy much bottled water, but if I do in the future, it won't be from Fiji.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 10, 2008 -> 07:36 AM) So why are we penalizing the banks and not the landlords? That's a good point. Seems like the best thing to do here is to prosecute landlords who don't inform their tennants of the foreclosure stages on the building. Not sure how tough the current penalties are, but, maybe they need to be tougher, and better-enforced.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:02 PM) Yea because RSO will make the markets rise again! WOOT! Holy s***, we know the guy can walk on water and all and Palin and McCain are piles of lying, heaping s***. Oh wait, I'm in the Democrat thread. Nevermind. What does that even have to do with his post?

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:12 PM) Since AHB seems to drool over polls, here is one for you. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-R...Plus-Minus.aspx This falls in the same category as my predictions of a 5% bump for McCain over the polls. Some people are more bigoted than they admit to some pollster. I'm guessing that 6% should be at least doubled.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:24 PM) If you look at real estate values in a historic context, in terms of how much they inflated beyond rent values and beyond the historic value where they grow steadily close to the rate of inflation, then housing prices haven't fallen enough yet, they still have another 10% or so to go on average to hit the pre-bubble trend lines, and I have difficulty figuring out how, with the gigantic surge in building that accompanied the bubble over the last few years, they won't be pushed down at least that far. Values in many places have already fallen through the long-term implied curve before the bubble. So on a technical analysis, I think we're near a bottom. Note I say near, because, you never know where it will really be. I thought for a while it was going to be late 2007 or early 2008, which I was wrong about. But again, you don't buy trying to find a bottom. You think long term. Right now, in the general scheme of things, its in a bowl. Its time to buy, IF you can without overleveraging. Plus thing factors I noted earlier will loosen lending. And, a long term recession usually ends up giving housing prices a back end boost because people run for "real" assets. I am not saying that prices in some areas won't go down another 5 to 10% - they might. But in many places, its already dropped way more than that. And in some places, I think its pretty stable where it is, and will go up in the relatively near future.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:49 PM) real estate prices will continue to drop if banks are not giving out loans. but it will be a cash buyers bonanza. huge profits could be made True on cash buyers, and their buys will help stabilize prices. But more important, the combo of the bailout, lower rates and a clearing out of some of the substandard lenders will create lending opps. Banks still need to lend to survive - and lend they will. Long run, this is a good time to buy.

Also, trend wise, this type of crash out typically means a good time to buy real estate.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 03:27 PM) the lower the market gets, the more people will panic and pull their money out. the public has lost faith in the stock market to an extent. not a good sign. Actually, I doubt it. Think about this in terms of who has their money in there... --You've got people who are personally active in the markets, or who are relatively market savvy and go through others. For any of them, they realize that getting out now is idiotic. Its locking in huge losses, and ignoring the buying opportunity. --You've got people with brokerage accounts and small investments - similar, they'll know how it goes. --You've got 401k types, where that is all they have. People don't think short term on 401k's - they'll stay in. --You've got those near retirement - they can't retire as easily now, so they'll stay in. --You've got trading firms and IB's, who certainly won't leave the markets, unless they go out of business. Even then, their positions will still be there with their market value. Other firms will buy it up. Basically, no large group in the market will leave. The markets are, in this case, the opposite of retail banks. Panicked downturns don't result in collapses (1929 being the exception, but that was a different scenario). At SOME point, they result in a reverse and upward trend. The only question is, where is that bottom? This won't result in a panic liquidation. A few will, but they will be far offset by the larger monies going IN on the buying opp.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 02:36 PM) there's a reason I called it drastic. The real point of this thread, not made clear by my (my fault), is to talk about solutions. The markets are part of the solution. The markets themselves are not some sort of evil, as is often portrayed in recent times. The IB's and trading firms have done some bad things, but that doesn't make the markets bad. The firms need to be penailzed, but more importantly, brought back in bounds with new regulations and enforcement. The regulations and their agencies (SEC, CFTC, FDIC, etc.) have also failed to address some things - those need to be changed. But the markets themselves are necessary to finding our way out.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 03:32 PM) On a positive note: Oil prices closed at $84 Decreased demand. That's not a good sign in this case.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 03:25 PM) With Obama, I distrust the polls the most. I believe we will see the greatest error of our recent Presidential elections. As I've said before, depending on the state, expect to see McCain do as much as 5% better than even the most accurate polls-of-polls. The fear factor will play. But, with Obama taking such gigantic leads, and Palin taking a small bit of that fear factor the other way, it may not matter anymore.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 03:26 PM) DOW to 8579.19 at today's close. Might it be time to shut down the markets for a little while? Won't accomplish anything. It is very, very, very rare to shut down the markets (any of them) for more than a few hours here or there. Halting trading on entire major markets is really meant to respond to an immediate event, to allow time for rational decisionmaking. This isn't an immediate event - this is a multi-week tumble caused by many different economic and financial factors. Shutting the markets for a day or two accomplishes nothing. It will move where its going to move when you re-open anyway.

Bounce didn't last. Dead cat. Dow closes down 7% to 8609 S&P closes down 7.4% at 912 Nasdaq relatively well off, closing down 5.47% at 1645 Ouch.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 01:58 PM) From 538.com: This reminds me... I am actually, amazingly, a little bit proud of our country's political take at the moment. Why? On the surface, because of the fact that Obama has taken a much bigger lead in the past few weeks. But, its not the fact that I think Obama is a better candidate. I'm proud of the fact that the nation, specifically the independents, are penalizing the dirtier campaign for that reason. This shift lately has pretty much exactly paralleled the change in tone of the McCain campaign, from mildly negative and sniping (which is normal, and Obama does it too), to just outright nasty and Unpresidential. The people are getting this one right. Those silly strings on CNN under the debate showed it too. Americans are tired of the personal attacks and overly adversarial tone, and that has been much louder from the McCain camp lately. So kudos to you, independent voters. You are sending the right message.

bounce. DJIA still down 5.1%, S&P 5.9%. VIX at all time highs today.

Holy crap!!!!! DJIA now down 6.62% to 8645 SP down 7.49% to 911 Wow.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 01:21 PM) Dow down 3.5% again today, to a current 8939. S&P down 4.5% to about 940. Make that 4% and 5% respectively now.

QUOTE (Soxy @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 02:26 PM) I'll second the "I'm more liberal than Obama." I took guns off the list, because I don't know his policy on them. Honestly, there is a reason why you don't see the guns issue discussed much in here or elsewhere in regards to politics. its because no one wants to touch the issue. Not since the crime bill in the 90's has anyone really tried to make federal-level changes to the laws. Its like the plague - no one wants to get near it. So, basically, the guns issue shouldn't really effect your decision on a President. It just isn't likely to matter. Court actions and local ordinances are more likely to have an effect.

Dow down 3.5% again today, to a current 8939. S&P down 4.5% to about 940.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 08:59 AM) but we have paul konerko. He had 2 of the 67 steals. Here is a fun fact - PK, AJ and Thome represented 6% of this team's stolen bases.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 11:07 AM) Obama not liberal enough? That's new! I'm upset because McCain is damn near my perfect candidate but he's too old and 8 years too late (and he picked a terrible VP candidate). He's socially liberal but also a strong Reaganite economically. I really don't think we'll find a Republican like him for a while - my party is stuck in the Bush mold for some reason. He's also willing to talk about the environment instead of pretending it doesn't exist. But I have two issues with him: his energy policy (i'm 100% behind the nuclear push, 100% against more drilling) and his new mortgage bailout. I'm tired of the bailouts. No one is learning a lesson here other than Joe Six Pack's 401(k). We should go after all the money grubbin greedy bankers/investors who started this mess, fine the piss out of them, then use that money to ASSIST people in bad mortgages. I am NOT in favor of another handout to wipe the slate clean. I really like the bolded above, and you are right. Those are two of the key reasons why it took me a while to really settle on Obama as my choice. McCain is, on SOME social issues, a little more liberal than his cohorts. He was also basically the only GOP candidate actually interested in the environment and alternative energy in some fashion. And yeah, the GOP is still stuck in the religious conservative control, though I think that is starting to wane (see: McCain's nomination). I have plenty I disagree with Obama on - his cowardly FISA vote, his lack of experience, his bizarre tax plans and general fiscal policy, his overreaching agenda, his support of affirmative action... there are others too. But it really came down to, I don't have to "resolve" anything. I just need to choose the candidate whose total package - issue and policy views, leadership and management skills - was better. These two candidates are the strongest pair we've had in my voting lifetime (this is my 5th cycle). A McCain Presidency, leaving the disaster that is Palin aside, would not make me nearly as angry as Bush has, I think. But Obama is even stronger, overall.

QUOTE (Controlled Chaos @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 11:47 AM) So she winks. I have an Uncle that winks. It drives me nuts when he does it too. But everyone is so sure that she is doing it as some grand plan to be "folksy". Maybe she has always winked...what the hell do you or I know about her mannerisms. And why does the one blink of an eye piss of so many people. Blatant gimick? Exaggerating certain aspects of her persona? Reveling in acting uneducated and ignorant? Jesus Christ, if you want to paint the Paris Hilton portrait on someone it should be Biden who's been acting like an airhead for the last 30 years. Paris Hilton IS an airhead. Joe Biden has, as you say, always seemed like one, because of his verbal gaffs over the years - but that is definitely not intentional. Sarah Palin WANTS to come off that way, even though she's probably (IMO) not.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 10:56 AM) I gotta say, I'm lovin the hypocrisy these days. And it's coming from BOTH sides. Obama brings up Keating 5 and it's a "smear job" according the McCain Campaign. McCain brings up Ayres and it's a "questioning of Obama's judgement". Please. Both sides. Cut it out! Do you own a mirror?

One difference I do want to point out though, in the arguments about perceived or real bigotry against Obama or Palin... The bigotry against Obama that is talked about is because of his race. He is what he is, in that regard. The negatives reactions to Palin, on the other hand, are about her behavior. That is something she not only controls, but in fact exaggerates for effect. The equivalent, IMO, would be if Obama put on some sort of gangsta-like act in order to attract more minority voters. It would be, just like Palin, taking some of the worst stereotypes that they might be associated with, and pedaling them out there under the guise of being more "real".