QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 12:07 PM)
Over his career, his BA and BA-RISP are practically identical.
The fact that he's currently hitting above his career batting average, yet below his career BA-RISP average probably suggests that both numbers will trend back to their norms.
So, when he comes up with people on base, an optimist might say he's due. Because the law of averages suggests he'll catch up.
There is no "Law of Averages". There's the Law of Large Numbers that says a random variable will exhibit its underlying probabilities over large sample sizes, it offers no predictive power. If you flip a coin ten times in a row and get heads each time, you still have a 50/50 shot of getting heads again.
Also, in baseball, we're talking about floating averages, not fixed probabilities. There is no probability that will force AJ to start hitting better in certain situations.
/statistics rant
edit: http://books.google.com/books?id=S9Wk5NqiX...all&f=false