iamshack

QUOTE(juddling @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 01:56 PM) hadn't really thought about it until now but maybe it's Sawyer. I bet in the next few shows it will show that Kate is REALLY pissed that Sawyer went with Locke and didn't stay with her. So..maybe she held onto that anger and refused to go to his funeral. He also didn't have any family to speak of. Just my 2cents I don't think it is Sawyer, but it could be. When it comes down to it though, I think Kate would go to Sawyer's funeral, even if she hated him for some reason. I think Sawyer is probably the man Kate referred to when she told Jack "He'll be wondering where I am" or whatever. Could be wrong though- seems a bit simplistic. The thought of the dead person being Michael is interesting too. I hadn't thought of him. Ultimately though, the only two people I can think of that Jack would give that "neither" response about is Locke or Linus. (For some reason I seem to remember that the person in the coffin's last name was a 5-letter name that started with "L". Does anyone else remember this, or is it a figure of my imagination?)

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 02:09 PM) I have a crazy speculation for the ending of the show. Could the flash-forwards not necesarily be forward to the end of the show? Could they all get the same feeling about needing to go back to the island, and then the show ends with them finding the island again? Thoughts? I actually think that is how the show is supposed to end. Not sure they will actually find it. But I'll bet they are trying to, and at some point may be close to doing so, and then we get a Soprano's-like ending and it just goes black.

QUOTE(scenario @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 02:09 PM) How did Anderson rate defensively at year end? I've never seen the figures on that. Me neither. Anderson played in 134 games in 06', but many of those in the second half were just as a late-inning defensive replacement. I'm not sure he actually qualified for BP's metric.

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 02:09 PM) Why is their methodology and criteria valid to you, here, but not with other things? Just playing devil's advocate. (Just for the record, their list doesn't pass the "smell test" to me.) In jest, GP, I am an attorney by training. That's what we do- pick and choose More seriously, I have no problem with statistical metrics that can be calculated that involve only or mostly one player, without introducing a whole plethora of external factors. For instance, I accept metrics such as OBP, OPS, SLG, k/9, hr/9, etc. Defensive metrics fall into a similar category in my accept/not so willingly accept/somewhat dismiss/outright dismiss scale, if you will. BA's defensive performance, for the most part, is a result of his own ability, without much interference from other factors (although I am sure one could find some). But when you get into things like the affects of base stealers, the affects of team chemistry, momentum, psychological factors, etc., that starts wading into waters which I feel are simply too murky from which to draw clear observations or conclusions from. Some things just belie definitive statistical analysis.

QUOTE(scenario @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 12:51 PM) Anybody with ESPN Insider access to see what he said about Swisher? Interesting that he didn't mention Franklin Gutierrez as a possible replacement for Sizemore in center, who, from what Tribe fans say, is outstanding defensively....

QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 12:35 PM) couldn't hurley be dead??? This flashforward took place before last year's(with Jack's beard etc...) I think had it been Hurley who was dead, Jack wouldn't have given the response to the question of "Family or Friend" (stated by the guy who is in the Levitra commercials, no less) of "neither." I think he would have considered Hurley to be a friend. I think it has to be Locke or Linus. Jack is clearly broken up that this person is dead, yet he did not consider this person to be a friend. Given that we know in that timeframe that Jack is desperately trying to get back to the island, and that it appears that Locke and Linus have a "special" connection to the island (and therefore might know how to return to it), and that Jack dislikes both of them, I believe it has to be one of the two. We also know that when Jack said to Kate "I thought you would have gone to the funeral," to which she responded "why would I?" that it was most likely not Sawyer, and it was probably someone who she disliked. At that point, she does not seem to want to admit that it was a mistake to leave the island, or is willing to admit she would like to return (although I believe she eventually will hope to), she would most likely not see any reason to go to either Linus or Locke's funeral. Also, we know no one attended the funeral...both Locke and Linus' parents' were both dead. Neither of them had very many friends (although Locke seemed to be liked by more people than Linus). It has to be one of the two....but which one?

Just to add what Baseball Prospectus said in 2006: Through his first 54 games in center, though, he has saved 10 runs more than the average center fielder by RAA, and 15 more than a replacement glove. Anderson is producing on defense at a RATE of 124, meaning that if he keeps up his current play he'll have saved an astounding 24 runs above the average centerfielder (think the once-spectacular Andruw Jones since 2004) over 100 games. Since 1900, no centerfielder has kept up a 124 RATE for a full season--not Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Curt Flood, or Jim Edmonds: Ten Best Defensive Seasons by a Center fielder, by RATE (minimum 100 games) Player Team Year Games RAA RATE ---------------------------------------------- Curt Welch STL-A 1887 123 34 128 Eric Davis CIN-N 1987 124 26 122 Darin Erstad ANA-A 2002 143 29 121 Eddie Milner CIN-N 1984 108 18 121 Kirby Puckett MIN-A 1984 128 26 121 Thurman Tucker CHI-A 1944 120 25 121 Johnny Mostil CHI-A 1923 135 26 120 Torii Hunter MIN-A 2001 147 28 119 Otis Nixon ATL-N 1992 102 17 119 Paul Blair BAL-A 1973 144 22 118 Thanks to Clay Davenport for the defensive figures. Anderson's work in centerfield has been worth a full win to the White Sox over an average defender (10 runs=roughly 1 win), thanks to catches like the running grab he made last Friday, so that he's managed to compile 1.1 WARP despite the fact he's been worse than a AAA lifer at bat. Sox fans might be shocked to note Anderson has been basically as good as Aaron Rowand (1.2 WARP)--notwithstanding his legendary grab of Xavier Nady's deep fly that earned him a facial fracture and the undying devotion of blue-collar Philadelphia, Rowand has not had nearly the kind of year in center Anderson is enjoying. The comparison accentuates just how much GM Kenny Williams improved his team by dealing Rowand for Jim Thome, whose 29 VORP has already doubled the total offensive output of Chicago's designated hitters last year and helped the club upgrade 2005's middling attack to the one that ranks fifth in runs scored this year.

QUOTE(chwhtsox @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 11:49 AM) He was good but I don't remember watching the best CF in the history of the game, I do remember BA missing the cut off man a few times and costing us the game. You didn't notice him being so good because he made it look so easy. He got to balls easily that Aaron the previous year was catching at a full sprint, diving for, or missing entirely. He certainly had room to grow in making the correct throws, etc., but in terms of getting to fly balls, he showed exceptional ability.

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 10:56 AM) Interesting stathead stat, Baseball Prospectus concluded in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, that in Ricky's 130 SB season, his base running added a mere 5.1 runs over the course of the entire season (according to EqBR). I'm thinking more about the season where he went .314/.419/.516 with 24 homers, 72 rbi, and stole 80 bases while being caught just 10 times....

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 10:26 PM) The bottom line is KW could acquire Rickey Henderson in his prime to lead off and if the White Sox pitch like they have the past 2 seasons, they will win nothing. Hmm...actually, I think they could possibly win the division if we could add Rickey in his prime....

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 09:34 AM) I didn't know that you put such faith into Baseball Prospectus. Well, I respect them. Let's put it that way. And they have slowly grown on me. Do I still disagree with their philosophy? Yes. I think there are so many unquantifiables in the game of baseball that affect the game, that they don't really recognize.

QUOTE(daa84 @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 07:59 AM) best defensive center fielder since andruw in his prime? hes good in center, but come on Yes. And that's what Baseball Propectus was saying also...well, actually, they were saying that his defense, according to their metrics, was the best in the history of the game. Those sort of statements, combined with what I saw with my own eyes...yes, that's what I believe.

It's really a shame. I honestly believe Brian is the best defensive center fielder in baseball- and it isn't particularly close. In fact, I think he may be one of the best defensive center fielders to play the game since Andruw Jones in his prime. Seems like this guy should get another chance, especially from a team which preaches defense.

I think they planned originally on this being a 2-hour season premiere, but because of the writer's strike (and the fact that they only have 8 episodes now), decided to make it just one episode, which hurt it as a "season premier." The first half of it was crap in my opinion. Second half was better, but for a really huge show (and a long layoff), this was not a good season premier.

QUOTE(rowand's rowdies @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 10:55 PM) Ron needs asked for a $5 million dollar boost before February 5th. He is about 4.4 million away. Donate today, February 1st (his 51st anniversary to his wife) to help the cause! He will not be silenced! www.ronpaul2008.com By the way, welcome Fred and Rudy supporters who are joining us! You are certainly smart enough to look at Ron's views and join our cause for freedom! Should his campaign be stalled, will he be donating the remaining funds to the Rainbow Coalition?

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 07:08 PM) I'm saying the evidence shows me his improvement has nothing to do with a natural progression. His batting average was higher in September than his OBP was every other month. A .340 BA with a .396 OBP is something I don't think we may ever see out of Owens again for an entire month. I don't think people realize just how bad his numbers were before this explosion. If they shut Owens down like they shut Danks down, and then told you Owens would be competing for a starting job in spring training, KW would have been beaten down at Soxfest. Another case of the White Sox not being consistent and therefore in my mind not making any sense. KW said Danks was shut down, not because he was getting killed, but because "we know what we have". I would like to ask KW exactly what do they have. How can anyone really know? Owens doesn't get shut down, does well, now Ozzie wants him to play and wants him to prove himself in spring training. Spring training and September, the 2 times he said not to believe what you see. Well, as is not unusual, we'll have to agree to disagree. In my mind, there isn't a whole lot you can say to explain away the possibility of improvement which comprises what, 25-30% of his total major league at-bats? The "rest" of his at-bats which you claim proves he is not the player (or even close to the player) he was in September is simply not enough to convince me, nor most major league execs for players experiencing their first several hundred at-bats.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 06:42 PM) Because, his "success" or basis for future success is based on a month of games that for all intents and purposes were meaningless. If he hit what he hit in August in September, just that 1 month, if the White Sox released him, or sold him to a Japanese team, no one would have thought anything about it. In fact, many here who think he's quite a prospect, would have said it is no loss. Now he has 1 great month, and suddenly he projects to being a good enough prospect to perhaps play a significant role on a team planning to contend for a championship? If that's all it takes, Lance Broadway should get a shot at being the White Sox ace and opening day starter in spring training. See, you're confusing my argument as suggesting that he is actually good. I'm not saying that. All I'm saying is that I don't think anyone can definitively state that his improvement was all due to September call-ups as opposed to his natural progression as a major league ballplayer with less than several hundred ab's.

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 06:11 PM) I actually was a Jerry Owens fan a couple of years ago, but I don't see it now. Perhaps if he showed the improvement everyone said he showed on his second call-up last season I might be on board, but hanging on the edge. It simply wasn't true. While his July was Ok, approximately what Crisp gives you on a worst case scenerio year, his August was about as bad as his September was good. So the 3 months after his callup for a bonafide major leaguer were: average, terrible, great. Great was also the kind of month Juan Uribe had in September. So you're going to honestly argue that this isn't exactly the kind of inconsistency you see in guys that have a grand total of 365 major league ab's? Don't get me wrong- I am not arguing Owens is actually good- but this kind of inconsistency is what you often see from guys in their first several hundred major league ab's...

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 05:41 PM) Owens has only had 1 month where he put up an OBP above .333. His entire stat line was distorted by an exceptional September of meaningless games. A month of games where even his manager said "Don't believe anything you see in September." DA, I definitely smell what you are stepping in, but on the other hand, it's difficult to dismiss outright the progress Owens made in September. When you're talking about a guy who hasn't had a whole lot of major league ab's, as well as a guy who has shown improvement with the addition of more guidance and more ab's, I don't like the idea of saying "well, he did it in September against other teams' call-ups, so it doesn't really mean anything." Who's to say that the reason for his improvement in September (or at least part of the reason for his improvement) didn't have anything to do with him simply getting more ab's? Learning the speed of the game a bit more on the major league level? Gaining more confidence in himself? Getting more comfortable? Simply following a learning curve which is pretty consistent for all minor leaguers in their first few hundred ab's at the major league level? How can you say that his improvement simply cannot be because of these factors, or some combination thereof? I just don't think anyone can chalk up all of Owens' improvement in September because of September call-ups. If he comes out the first few months of the season and shows he is the same player he was when he first came up last season (and this very well may happen), then fine, chalk his September performance up to the call-ups then. But right now, I don't think anyone can definitively say either way.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 05:31 PM) I know you completely throw out September stats for everyone, but I don't look it that way. -Last season, Owens put up a .267/.324/.312 line. Crisp, a .268/.330/.382. I have said it time and time again. While I am know Owens fan, I have to call it like I see it. He played well after getting his 2nd call up, and earned the line he put up. Owens will be 27 when the season starts. If he was given a full season of AB's,(I hope he doesn't get them) I would expect him to be able to put up a OBP around .335, and stealing at least 40, with average D out in CF, mostly due to his arm. So now I ask... 1.Why isn't that a realistic projection? 2.Why should I expect Crisp to be able to put up numbers that much better than that? Numbers better enough that warrant the Sox giving up something of value to get Crisp. It would be a waste of resources to acquire Crisp. We already have a very similar player on the roster. Unless of course we were able to trade Owens back to a team like Washington for something of reasonable value, and get Crisp for some other resources we acquire through other moves, such as by trading Crede and/or Uribe. Then we're talking just a salary hit, which would probably be negated by the $10 million we ditched by dealing Crede and/or Uribe. Then you're looking at a situation where you are platooning Crisp/Swisher/Quentin/Dye/Konerko/Thome, interchanging them based on pitching matchups, recent performance, who needs a rest, injury, etc. I don't love the idea of giving up anything of value for Crisp, but given the fact that we still have a few pieces to move, and a definite sub-optimal solution defensively in CF and at the leadoff spot, it's difficult to argue that he would be of no use to this ballclub. I'm not saying under the current scenario that Crisp would be a "perfect" addition, but should some other pieces fall into place, it is not impossible to see him having a clear and positive role on this team.

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 02:33 PM) Why does everyone think Crisp would be expensive to get? He's simply just not that good and still owed a lot of money. The Red Sox don't seem that delirious to me that they'd ask for a hell of a lot for their 4th OF. Well, because anything that's been written in the media has suggested that. I can't remember off the top of my head what it was they were supposedly asking for in return when we inquired about him, but it was something substantial. Like Gio and Carter or something. Now that may change as the Sawks are out of the Santana hunt and they are convinced going with Ellsbury is the best move, but I wouldn't expect them to give Crisp away for anything other than at least one top 10 prospect and others.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 02:20 PM) I don't understand this desire to go get Crisp, Pierre, Patterson or the like at this point. For one thing, does anyone really think its worth lowering the team OBP significantly (which is what would happen), just to have a more prototypical leadoff hitter? That makes zero sense. And second, at least in the case of Pierre and Patterson, we already have that guy on the team for a lot cheaper. This team really has only one big need at he major league level at this point - one more solid SP. Any other "needs" or issues, like not having a prototypical leadoff hitter, being weak at backup C, that sort of thing... is just not worth investing a lot in right now. Well, to be fair, I believe most of the people in favor of acquiring Crisp assume he can get back to his levels pre-Boston. Should he do so, there is no question that a .345-ish OBP and an .800 OPS player would certainly raise our prospects of improving at the leadoff spot. But assuming he will not return to that sort of production, yes, you're right, it makes little sense.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 02:00 PM) Basically, you must move Konerko to go after Crisp, and move Swisher to 1b. Agreed. And then you reach the point of why are we doing all this just to acquire Crisp? Unless a fantastic deal comes along for Konerko, one say, which includes pitching and 2b help, this is just getting too complicated.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 01:57 PM) So you'd actually be in favor of adding a second low OBP hitter to the top of the lineup? People sure are confident that Crisp's last 1000 major league ABs have been an aberration. The only way I'd be in favor of adding Crisp is if he were acquired in a 1-1 swap for MacDougal and if he's placed in the 8th or 9th spot in the batting order. No, you're right. I forgot about Swish for a second there. Adding Crisp does absolutely nothing other than solidify our 4th OF position, which probably is a platoon player with Quentin. And at the price the Red Sox will likely command, it's simply not worth it. I would have been in favor of a Crisp acquisition had we not acquired Swish, but now that we have, I think it just makes things more complicated. I don't particularly want Owens out there, let alone another version of him- an older, more expensive version at that- however, we do have the problem of having no leadoff hitter and no true center fielder should Owens not be on the field. Our best option is most likely some OF of Dye/Swisher/Quentin with Owens platooning with Quentin and Swisher, and Swisher moving into the RF/DH/1b position on some of those days Owens plays. As you can see, adding Crisp just complicates this, unless of course, Owens is dealt. And even then, the price for acquiring Crisp as a 4th OF or platoon OF just doesn't make a ton of sense. Perhaps for a competing team at the deadline, but not at the outset.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 31, 2008 -> 01:45 PM) Well, we're likely already in for a whole lot of Owens given Ozzie's love for him. If Crisp is added to the roster Quentin moves to 5th on the depth chart, I'm not so sure how much of him we'd actually get to see. I disagree. I think adding Crisp solidifies (or at least this is the theory) our leadoff spot and adds great defense in Center. I think Owens can then platoon with Quentin should he not be fully healthy as of OD, with Quentin gradually taking a higher and higher percentage of the ab's. I think Jerry becomes 5th on the depth chart if Crisp is acquired. Kenny stated that he went out to acquire "not a player 'like' Carlos Quentin, but actually 'Carlos Quentin.'" I find it extremely difficult to believe that he would then allow Ozzie to bench Quentin in favor of Owens, at least assuming Quentin reaches full health at some early stage of the season. I'm certainly not in favor of surrendering much to get Crisp- not now anyways- but should we acquire him, I don't believe Quentin is the one that gets pushed back on the depth chart. Edit: I forgot Swish has to actually play the field somewhere... I think any acquisition of Crisp means Owens has to be dealt...