harfman77

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 07:30 AM) After getting Fulmer and not having another pick until the fourth round, I think the Sox have to make a big run at this guy. We save a good chunk of money on the Draft this year from the lack of high picks and are completely bereft of minor league offensive talent. I am not sure there is one guy in the minors that you can comfortably say will be a major leaguer. Martinez would not solve that massive issue, but he would be the only high-end offensive talent in the system that desperately needs one. If you get Martinez, you really need to sign 3 or four of the guys to make it worth while. Add a guy like Randy Arozarena who BA says has a similar profile to Ian Happ. Add in a guy like Andy Ibanez and another SP like Vladimir Gutierrez and it is basically like adding four first round draft picks to the class. It will cost some of the higher end 16 years olds the next couple seasons, but you still get your entire pool to use, you just have to break it down into smaller chunks.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 02:00 PM) They have like 17.5 million draft pool plus another 5% on top of that. compare that to our paltry 5.5 million, and yeah. I think they'll sign most everyone. Well, Cameron is getting $5M of that and Tucker is likely to be near that as well, so really they have $7.5 to sign the #2 pick and everyone else they have drafted from the second round on.

His greatest value is either with the Sox or as a comp pick at the end of the season. No reason to think about trading him. Yes the team is 6.5 games out of first and 3.5 out of the wildcard, but that is not insurmountable by any means especially given how many things have gone wrong thus far. When the players start regressing toward their norms this team will be right there. It has taken a while to gel things together which can be expected when there are so many new parts. I think by the time the end of July rolls around this team will be looking to upgrade a position or two to make a stretch run.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:50 AM) HIckman will probably start but I think his major league future is as a RP The Sox tend to have guys start until they prove they can't, even guys that they feel will end up in the bullpen eventually. I think he had a bit of dead arm from throwing more this season. The pro is that there are not a lot of miles on the arm for a college pitcher, but it is going to take some time to build up that arm strength to start in pro baseball.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 03:44 PM) Why did Hickman fall so far? He faded down the stretch a bit as this was his first full season pitching.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 02:56 PM) Interesting that there are significant rumors suggesting Cameron will go to the Astros with their 3rd pick, #37. That adds legitimacy to the Astros going underslot significantly at number two (Benitendi is the rumored target) and using the savings to go over slot with Cameron while going full slot on Tucker at number 5.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 02:33 PM) Remember when Tyler Flowers was considered a hitter? He was Kris Bryant in the fall league and came to the Sox and hit .300 with .400 OBP with power in AA and AAA. Then suddenly he couldn't hit. Catchers scare me. Most of them can't hit. Maybe the demands of the job, not just the beatings they take, just take it's toll. I am very leery of HS catchers. There is so much they have to achieve just running the game and the beatings, where predicting offense is very difficult. Stephenson is considered a bat that can catch. His bat is considered good enough to profile in the OF or CI. The dig on Flowers was that his defense was subpar and he may not have the hit tool to play another position. His power was there but too much swing an miss. Stephenson is more along the lines of a guy like Will Myers or Alex Jackson from last years draft as a high school catcher that has a bat that can carry him.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 10:45 AM) Sox have not said a word about Benitendi, so that's who I predict. I think that would be my pick at this point. A potential top of the order bat that can play legit CF is very appealing. I dont think the Sox should paint themselves into taking a pitcher when the fit may just not be there this year.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 7, 2015 -> 10:44 PM) Sox need the best player at 8 regardless, with no picks round 2 and 3. I do not want to hear under slot and Sox in the same sentence on Monday. The thing with this draft is that there is no clear separation of talent between the 8th best player and the 25th best player, so if all things are equal and you can get a guy at a discount to allow you to grab some higher profile talent when you pick again, wouldn't that be the most logical course of action? Sounds like Jay is now starting today at 3.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Jun 7, 2015 -> 07:29 PM) In a perfect world, who would you want the Sox to get in the draft at #8? For me, it's Tyler Jay easily. Brendan Rogers.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 2, 2015 -> 09:10 PM) Hahn will have no choice but to trade Samardzija if these keeps up, if for no other reason than payroll relief. And Rick can't think about what a comp pick is going to do in 2020. He needs to save his job, starting next season. That would be shortsighted. Going into the rebuild process most knew it was going to be painful and take some time to get the system to a place where it needs to be to compete. Giving up a comp pick for salary relief is counter to what has happened since RH took over, the idea should still be to build a farm system that can graduate ML talent on a regular basis and fill in the gaps through FA. They took a short cut last year in free agency to try and make the ML team more competitive in the short term, but the vision is still there. The Sox have more high end prospects (Anderson, Danish, Adams, Montas) then they have had in a long time. I don't think JR is going to pull the plug on the rebuilding effort because the results in year 3 of the rebuild are average. Hahn is going to be fine, he has a plan and so far he has done a very good job at acquiring talent. I think RV moves on at the end of the season and they bring in a more blue collar guy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 04:06 PM) I don't strongly disagree, but I generally lean towards disagreeing that this is a "smart way" to get bodies into the system. I lean towards thinking its the opposite - international free agents are such a gamble that to me the smart way to handle them is to gather as many as possible. If one out of 50 turns into a big league regular, then you might have to sign 50-75 before you find a big league regular. If you spend all your signings on 1-2 guys then they absolutely cannot bust because it will cost you your chances to find a big league regular, and "cannot bust" is something I wouldn't expect you can say when you're signing international 16 year olds. But this is why teams go over. Under the current system a team can amass four years worth of bodies while taking two years of penalties. Penalties which do not prevent you from signing anyone, only cap what you can sign them for. The Yankees this year can sign nine more guys at $250K each to go with their huge haul of highly rated talent from last season. The problem for the Sox is that you have to really hit on a lot of targets to make it worth your while. There are a couple Cubans that will put the Sox over by themselves if the Sox sign them, but they don't really have enough deals in place with the LA group to make as large of an impact as you should when considering taking on the penalties.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 04:36 PM) The concern I have about going severely underslot with the first pick is that they'd have to wait something like 104 picks for their next selection. All it takes is a few other teams doing this same strategy, and the Sox could miss out on some guys they wanted. I'd much rather just go after the BPA with first pick. When the Cubs came went over slot last year to grab HS pitching they made their selections in round 4 and six. The Astros tried to do the same thing in rounds 5 and 20 before the Aiken ordeal went down. QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 04:54 PM) There's not been a single hint of the Sox going underslot with their first pick. Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law are probably the two best in terms of having inside information on draft strategy, and they've been suggesting nothing but collegiate starting pitching. This is true, we should all probably accept that the Sox are taking the best college pitcher on the board, but it is fun to dream. QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jun 2, 2015 -> 09:35 AM) I think it was Mayo's last mock that also had Fulmer and Harris available at #8 with the Sox taking Harris over Fulmer. Kind of goes against what others are hearing in reference to whom the Sox preferences are. Harris reminds me too much of McCarthy with that high 3/4 slot. Weren't the Sox trying to get McCarthy to change his arm angle due to concerns over the additional stress that high slot induces on the shoulder? And ultimately why he was available for trade? Maybe I'm remembering this wrong... All this nonsense can be avoided if teams just go ahead and pass on Jay so the Sox have get him. Speaking of Jon Harris, I did watch Mo St this weekend and I would love for the Sox to take their #2 guy - Matt Hall - sometime around round 4 or 5 if he is still available. He does offer much in the way of velocity, but is leading DI in K's. He has a pretty devastating CB and is appears to be the consummate "crafty left hander". If the big three SP's are off the board, I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox punt on the pick and draft someone they know they won't sign. With likely a top 15 pick next year coupled with a comp at #9 and a CBA pick around #30, the Sox would have a large draft pool to be creative in structuring how they acquire talent in that draft. Next years draft is supposedly much deeper so I would view that as a viable alternative if they can't get someone they absolutely love.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 02:42 PM) hooper should be gone by the end of the 2nd round. imo, seeing how wrong i have been most of everything today, i wouldn't bet on me being right. Thats entirely possible, but there are always HS guys that slip due to signability and Hooper was just an example. Hooper is a guy that it has been said would be unsignable if not drafted high enough, so, if the Sox had an excess in the amount that Hooper was looking for a deal could potentially be made. But that theory can be used interchangebly, the Cubs were able to get Carson Sands and Dylan Cease last year that way, the Sox could have signed de Montes Orca with that strategy last season.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 02:37 PM) Who has a good young 3Bman and/or catcher to give up for Shark? Do they want to do that? Do we? We have a group of real good players not doing so good right now, but if they get rolling we are still in this thing. If we can't make up ground for the 2015 season why just tear up a team because we didn't suceed this year. All that translates into is tearing up your team every year and starting over because you didn't get to the World Series. Only one team wins that crown every year. Concentrate on building the team and not tearing it down just because you are frustrated I think Shark has more value as a FA to the Sox than as trade bait at this point. Any trade would have to be worth more than the corresponding draft pick AND the draft slot money associated with that pick that would be attached to his departure.

At this point you just need to wait it out. The offense will click at some point, but this is the problem when you add multiple guys to a lineup in a season. I think mid July you look at the team and where they are and see what marketable assets you have that won't be contributing in two seasons and start looking to move them. I do think this team is close to going on a run, they have all the right parts just have not been able to get them all working together at the same time.

Does Sandy Alomar Jr count as a mid-season addition? I wanted him when RV was hired and then that RV has had his time to shine. Nothing against him in particular, but sometimes you just need a different voice. I think Hahn is stuck though, I can't see JR letting him get rid of RV in the middle of any season. Most likely it would be at the end of a season and he would be "promoted" to an off the field role.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 12:02 PM) That Harris pick would be incredibly underwhelming, but I've heard murmurs about it as well I don't love the pick either, I think if the three pitchers are off the board you go underslot on one of the college bats. Based on where things sit today, I could see the top 8 7 breaking out like: 1.1 - Diamondbacks - Tyler Jay 1.2 - Astros - Dansby Swanson 1.3 - Rockies - Brendan Rogers 1.4 - Rangers - Alex Bregman 1.5 - Astros - Dillon Tate 1.6 - Twins - Tyler Stephenson 1.7 - Red Sox - Carson Fulmer 1.8 - Thats where the Sox have a conundrum. Reach on Harris, gamble on a HS bat like Cameron or Tucker, or go significantly underslot on one of the best college bats in either Christin or DJ Stewart and use the savings to come back and draft someone like Justin Hooper in round 4 and giving him low 1st round money.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ May 28, 2015 -> 11:13 AM) Keith Law released his second edition of his mock draft and the White Sox selection has not changed from Carson Fulmer. At this point, it would be a shock if the Sox selected anyone but Tyler Jay or Carson Fulmer. At this point I would be surprised if either reaches the White Sox.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:24 AM) Doesn't he have to go to UCLA for 3 years then? He'll take the money now. There is no reason to go back to school, pitch for free and risk injuring yourself again. Playing sports for free is dumb. Except he just did it. Yes if he went to UCLA he would have to stay for three years now, I thought he was older than he is as he won't turn 19 until August, and you cannot enter the draft until you are 21 to be a draft eligible sophomore. But he can do the same thing at a juco. He may be inclined to stop the bleeding by taking a deal now, but based on everything that I have seen from his camp thus far, he will not be taking any discounts because they believe he is worth top flight money. Based on the Houston situation last season, a team only needs to offer 40% of slot value for a player that is injured to receive compensation if the pick does not sign. I would be all for making Aiken an offer of $1,389,000 and letting him take it or leave it, I just really expect him to leave it. Which I would totally be fine with because next years draft class is going to be much better.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:53 AM) This incentive for Aiken is to not fall down even further and not even be able to get the reduced number the White Sox could offer. Sox have a draft slot of $3.74 million. If the Sox were to offer say $2.5 million and save about a million dollars for later picks, If Aiken were to fall further than #16, his slot number would fall under $2.5 million. If you offer $3 million, the top team with a $3 million slot is #12. The latest BA mock draft has Aiken falling to #24 to the Dodgers who have a slot of just under $2.1 million. And then he just doesn't sign. Based on what transpired last season, I don't see him taking a discount to go anywhere. He could go to UCLA next year, sit out the season rehabbing, and then enter the draft the following season after building his value back up. Jeff Hoffman had a lot less leverage last year and still signed for slot.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ May 26, 2015 -> 10:56 AM) Thompson plays defense, so he should at least have some pathway to the majors because almost no one in our outfield does it very well (except for Eaton, presuming he gets back to playing D like he can). He is not going to displace Cabrera or Garcia though, and by the time Melky is gone Thompson will be playing in the majors somewhere.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 23, 2015 -> 07:00 PM) I think the teams were always on him and the media is now catching up. The media types overlooked him because he's a closer but with many teams thinking he can start and liking the low innings totals, you have seen this sudden "rise". Teams were always on him, yes, but I think it has more to do with him being consistent in a pretty poor draft class than anything that goes on with the "media types". A lot of the information that is passed on is what is gleaned from conversations with different organizational scouts. Dillon Tate was the guy that scouts loved after making the transition from the bullpen to the rotation, but he has hit the wall and his fall has led to an opening for Jay to rise. The same way that Funkhouser was a top 10 guy most of the season and now probably goes around #20, there just have not been many consistent performers in this years draft class so a guy like Jay has every opportunity to move up.

Found a new mock draft, has the Sox taking HS catcher Tyler Stephenson, which means its probably not very well informed. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2015/05/25/2...may-25-edition/ It looks like from most of the newer mock drafts, Jay and Fulmer will be gone by the time the Sox pick. Tate may be in play again as he is slipping as people are doubting his ability to start. At this point I think the Sox end up with Harris, but they also could take a college bat if Swanson or Bregman were to slip.

Thompson does not have a long term home in the organization right now, with no path to the majors. I think keeping him in AAA where he can be a force ups his trade value when the Sox need to make a move to address other areas of the ML roster.