witesoxfan

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) That would be the smart thing to do, but its the Browns. Just like their coaching hire, it will be a horrible decision followed by terrible interviews. I like Pettine, and he's been successful everywhere he's gone, and Shanahan is typically a solid play caller too. They were asking kids at the combine how many uses they could find for a paper clip or a brick, and I think that's actually Pettine doing that. People made fun of it, but they're not bad questions. He runs a very disguised and aggressive hybrid defense, so he's seeing how many different ways you can see to attack the same problem.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:32 PM) If I'm Cleveland, I'm taking Sammy Watkins at 4, a QB (Carr?) with their 1st round pick from Indianapolis and then someone like Carlos Hyde or Tre Mason in the 2nd round. You add that to what they have coming back and they are a potential playoff team IMO Jesus, could you imagine having Gordon AND Watkins? s***, throw Mark Sanchez back there and they'd be fine.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:31 PM) That last thing Gary Sanchez needs to do is sacrifice an ounce of anything to gain some pop. I would read any weight gain on his part as a big negative until he demonstrates otherwise. He's another hacker with whose defensive improvements have "impressed" Yankees scouts. Maybe it's real, maybe not, but he seems like he's got a ton of the flaws that we already have in abundance on this team. He's had 110 plate appearances at the AA level. That is not a guy the Sox should even be considering unless it's at the deadline and he's been having a good year. Unless something comes up in the next 3-4 weeks, I'd rather just have Phlowglieto take the spot.

QUOTE (dasox24 @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 12:51 PM) I'm a big fan of Murray. Wouldn't draft him too early (based on the Bears' other needs/holes), but if he made it to the 4th round, I'd be all over it. With him, it's hard to judge his draft status right now due to the ACL tear. If he can work out reasonably well at his Pro Day, then he'll probably move back up draft boards. But if his knee takes longer to heal than he hopes, it could definitely keep him down. I love Murray. Dude just has a cannon and isn't afraid to use it. I think he'd make a great contingency plan for someone, especially looking towards 2015. I'm really hoping with the sheer number of talented QBs in this draft that the Bills end up with one of them in the 3rd or 4th round. Tuel is a 3rd string QB at his very best and if you can push him off the roster, all the better.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) I know that GB% alone isn't a key factor. Maybe it's K/BB or K% and GB%. I think the best place to start is to look at the pitchers who gave up the least runs and do a step wise linear regression to see what factors pop up. I think they've done quite a bit of this and it's where they derive the statistics from. So many of these variables show such little significance towards the runs scored with such high variability that it's impossible to say that one is more important than the other, but it essentially follows basic guidelines and sounds logic. 1) A strikeout is the best guarantee for an out. 2) A walk is never an out. 3) If the batter hits it, you prefer it to be on the ground because it's almost never a home run and the batter will usually not advance beyond 1B. 4) A flyball is preferable to a line drive, but those can be dangerous. 5) You do not ever want to give up line drives. Your ideal pitcher is one who has good command, gets a fair amount of strike outs, and keeps the ball on the ground. I'd argue that the best pitcher - starter or reliever - of the modern era is Mariano Rivera. His numbers: 8.22 K/9 2.01 BB/9 52.5% GB% Those can be supplemented, and you can be great without 1 of them, but I generally think you need at least two of them to be a great pitcher.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 11:21 AM) I read a quote from some scout recently, and he said the scouts would play a game and see if they could guess right on Santana's change 25% of the time. Ridiculous. That was all you could do too was guess fastball at the plate, because if you tried to hit the changeup, you'd miss. And his control was absolutely phenomenal. Those 3 seasons in Minnesota he had fWARs of 7.5, 7.6, 7.2. He was as unhittable as they come.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) I was looking at it from the pitching aspect of GB% not the hitting. Still seems to be that good pitching beats good hitting especially in the post season. If LD rate is correlated to BABIP, it makes sense that a high GB% or lower LD rate would be correlated with better pitching and poorer hitting. I need to find the numbers though. My hypothesis would be that you'd see some slight correlation to GB% and run prevention, but it wouldn't be significant. Your best groundballers (as SP) since the statistic has been kept have been Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, Jake Westbrook, Chien-Ming Wang, Tim Hudson, Aaron Cook, Zach Day, Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez, Kirk Saarloos, and Justin Masterson. That's a pretty mixed bag. The one thing I notice when looking over those pitchers is that the most successful ones have been those that have been able to accrue some strikeouts. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=0&sort=6,d You can mess around with that a little bit. One thing's for certain - you don't make it starting if you are throwing flyballs unless you pitch in a big ballpark. Chris Young and Jered Weaver are really the only starters to find some success.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 08:42 PM) I'm aware of all that, but when pitchers lose velocity, it's typically gone for good. Although, according to this article, Beck was actually working in the low to mid 90's in High-A, which makes his inept strikeout rate even more concerning. No, I don't think so. If the stuff is there, then it will come through eventually, and this is a guy that was once touted as a possible top 5-10 pick in the draft who fell due to conditioning concerns. If those have improved, then it's a matter of execution. That's what I want to see. QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 11:39 PM) I'd like to see Dunn bat 7th or something. Let Abreu clear the bases. Yeah, that would be a waste of Dunn's bat. It's still very likely that Dunn will be the Sox 2nd best bat, and he could easily be the best option against RHP.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 09:37 PM) Speaking of, has he reported yet? Does not appear that way.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 07:26 AM) I really hope one of Benjamin or Beckham are there for Kansas City to draft at 23 I definitely think they'll both be there. --- Going to St. Louis for the draft to watch with (at least) a couple football psychos. I love the draft.

I'm really looking forward to following Chris Beck this year.

He's done

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 04:50 PM) I could be way off, but I just don't get the hype around Manziel. As a college player I get it, but in the NFL. No way. I really don't know what to think of him. I don't consider anything he did off the field as bad, and the kid has interviewed extremely well. I can't think of a more polarizing player in recent years.

QUOTE (peppers312 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) that's pretty vague. what sucks about it? the fact that there are a bunch of unknowns? i don't think it gets much worse than the past 3-4 years, really since Dunn's arrival. No, primarily because it's filled with players who are going to be mediocre to bad offensively. There's plenty of room to grow, and I expect a much better 2nd half, but just because something's been improved doesn't mean it still can't be bad, and frankly, that lineup will struggle to score runs still.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 03:51 PM) I saw in on a Mock today. That would be big for them. I also saw that Evans could go to the Lions. Wow that would be tough. The two best players I saw last year live against my team were Mack and Watkins. I truly believe Watkins is a franchise WR. Probably just me being biased, but I don't see Mike Evans getting past Buffalo at 9, no matter what the experts are mocking right now, unless Watkins somehow falls or Max/Clowney get that far, and I don't see any of that happening. The current Bills regime waited until the 2nd round to get their left tackle, so why would they take a right tackle with the 9th pick, which is a super premium pick? Worth noting is that said RT prospect would play RT for the Bills because Glenn is a much better pass blocker than run blocker. Calvin Pryor has come up as a possibility for that pick too, but even if he's a monster, I think they still either sign or franchise Byrd. Getting EJ a big weapon on offense makes too much sense, and Evans can play a similar role to VJax/Graham for EJ.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 02:57 PM) I'm hoping CJ Mosley falls to the Packers. Make this happen football gods!! With talk of him going as high as 9 to the Bills, I'd be hardpressed to see that happen.

QUOTE (AJUribe @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) I think the most interesting storyline that no one is talking about, is the absolute haul St. Louis is about to get for that #2 pick. I don't think it's a home run that they make that trade. Even having just drafted Austin #8 last year, I could see them looking into either Clowney or Watkins. Both would greatly improve them.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 02:39 PM) I think Bridgewater is a top 5 pick. I think Houston should take him. The other ones I'm not so sure of. I've been pretty adament about my love for Bridgewater for a while now, but his combine performance raises more than a few eyebrows. He's got a bit of Roethlisberger/Ryan to his game that I really like, but why not run the 40? It's not like he's going to run a 4.50. If he runs 4.90 (or 5.00 or even 5.10, he's fine). My only thought is that it comes back to him being hurt, or maybe challenging scouts and personnel to look beyond his 40 time and forcing them to study his tape. I actually think Bortles goes #1, though Mack would make that Houston defense absolutely frightening.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014 It's getting to be that time of the year, so rather than mix up free agency, trades, and rumors with any sort of other draft information, we'll keep them separate. --- A guy I know says that he doesn't think any of the top 3 QBs - Bortles, Bridgewater, and Manziel - are even top 10 worthy. I actually tend to agree with him, even though I think that at least 2, and perhaps as many as 3, go in the top 5. Given, a lot of this depends upon further pre-draft workouts and visits, but what do you think?

Vernon Gholston is the biggest bust I can think of. Bleacher Report has a few others to consider too (though if a guy like Archuleta has 4 solid years to start his career, I don't know how big of a bust he is). http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1081343...ated-to-the-nfl

QUOTE (Jake @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 01:07 PM) I think I made this exact lineup my preferred lineup earlier in the offseason. As for Gillaspie, I'd be trying to turn him into a guy that can play 2B. I don't see anything athletically or skill-wise missing, just has to learn double play footwork to be adequate enough to fill in there occasionally. I agree completely. The adjustments are actually the same for both 3B and 2B regarding the calculation of WAR itself (both get +2.5 runs), but increasing versatility itself increases the utility of Gillaspie as a player himself, making him more valuable to both the Sox and other teams. And in some cases - Neil Walker is a good example - the player's defense actually is better at 2B because they have more time to get to the ball and it's a shorter throw.

QUOTE (dasox24 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 12:18 PM) Agreed. They have way too many areas that need to be addressed. They can't be giving up several picks just to move up a few spots. Of course, all these Falcons fans in Atlanta want to get Clowney. They're idiots. They already traded away too many picks to get Julio Jones, which I still think was a bad trade. They can't do that again (yes, I know it wouldn't be as pricey, but it would still cost a bit). I actually still really like the Jones trade, because that was their biggest need at the time, they certainly looked the part of a Super Bowl contender, and they almost got there (and it could be argued that they SHOULD HAVE gotten there).

I think the combine should primarily be there to either solidify opinions or raise questions. Like, Clowney "only" did 21 bench reps, but he's 266 with 34.5" arms. Doing 21 reps at that size is still good. That he ran as well as he did backs up how incredible an athlete he is. Still, Mack outperformed him both during the season and at the combine, and makes me think he deserves to go #1. Now, I see a guy like Jean-Baptiste show up at 6'3", 215, with a 4.53 and 4.58 40s and a 41.5 inch vertical? Knowing the trends of the NFL, he should be moving up, but is that justifiable? I don't know. Also, you see a guy like Teddy Bridgewater not even run? What the hell is he trying to hide? I love Bridgewater, but you can't even run? That doesn't make a lot of sense.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 10:47 AM) I think Atlanta is gonna draft Clowney. I think they will trade up if they have to. It wouldn't surprise me, but I think that would be such a poor move for a team with so many problem areas. It'd be like trying to scoop water off a tanker with a bucket.