michelangelosmonkey
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Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
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7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:
The bottom line is we hoped to win with the rebuild guys. We put no effort into adding quality young talent to protect the window from busts and injuries.The FO also operated as if other teams wouldn't try to get better as well. Teams like the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels should have never passed us by. Look at how the Rangers, Padres, Phillies, Astros, Blue Jays, and Braves have operated and compare them to our FO.
What do you mean we put "no effort into adding players"? We are still drafting players and making interesting international signings. And the Astros have "passed us by"???? The same Astros we've been chasing? The Phillies were a year ahead of us in the rebuild and started fire hosing money at free agents in 2019 and went....4th at 500, 3rd under .500, 2nd at .500, 3rd at 12 games up (and WS) and are under .500 again. Imagine the hatred on Phillies Talk about their wasted time. And the Orioles and Rangers have had a nice 49 games. The enormous patience and respect Soxtalk has for every other organization and the hatred of all things White Sox is so weird and exhausting.
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6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
Colas, sure, he was a 70-something rated prospect.
But expecting a repeat out of Andrus (or Cueto) was always going to be fool's gold, plus moving Andrus to another position entirely.
The biggest issue to me was probably KNOWING that Sosa and Romy and Remillard (based partially on 2022 MLB play, partially on career history and Sox history of position player draft/intl. successes or lack thereof other than the very top Cubans) weren't everyday players and just rolling with that was going to be a massive gamble...especially as these guys weren't exactly Top 5-7 guys in the Dodgers' or Rays' system.
(All that said, the Padres are running out a roster that's nearly TWICE as expensive as the White Sox and they STILL have massive issues with both rostered catchers (Nola a disaster hitting-wise, #1 backup in Campusano out for two months, so on to catcher #3 Sullivan), Trent Grisham's hitting/K's make him strictly a platoon guy, Ha Seong Kim being a "marginal" everyday player due to his below average offense, Brandon Dixon subbing for Machado, Engel quickly cut and Azocar back, but they also relied on severely AGING Nelson Cruz and Carpenter and that attempt to capture lightning in a bottle has failed too. Miserably.
So basically that core of four superstars with Machado out suddenly has become 3 superstars that have largely underachieved and a bottom 3-4-5 players on any given night quite similar to what the White Sox have been running out there on the back end of their starting lineup. Their fourth/fifth best player is Cronenworth, and NONE of the line-up members are hitting with RISP, they're worse than any team in baseball history with an under .200 average.
The point is that the White Sox at $180 million have the same number of line-up holes as a team with a $350 million payroll, and I'd even taken the Sox pen with Crochet/Hendriks 100% over SD, too. Maybe even a slight advantage to the Sox rotation, too.)
The primary difference HERE is that Soto could/would likely be traded in the next 1 1/2 seasons to restock their farm/pitching and Preller/Melvin both dumped. Or they really double down and go after Ohtani, lol. Currently, they're something like 3-4 games out of 3rd in the WC race. But the expectations are just THAT high...coming off the NL Championship series...in comparison to the fading hopes and dreams of Sox fans entering the 2022 season (after one year of TLR) and trailing 3 teams in the worst division in baseball so far in 2023.
The White Sox pretty obviously aren't going to go to those lengths of tearing apart their entire front office and coaching staff again. They might even hold onto their impending FA's until the last two months of the pennant race like Giolito, Grandal, Lopez, and at best get a QO/compensation pick back for Giolito...or maybe nothing at all, like Carlos Rodon.
This is another credo of Soxtalk...negativity on our own prospects. The idea that you KNEW Lenyn Sosa was going to be a bust based on history of the Sox busting at these positions is crazy. He put up a .900 OPS in Birmingham while 2 years younger than league average in half a season at that pitchers park, then he put up an .820 OPS in Charlotte in half a season at 4 years younger than average. You know which other middle infielder also put up a combined .880 OPS in AA/AAA spit at 22 and flailed in a few at bats in the majors? Marcus Semien. And we traded him away a year later for a bag of magic beans because "we know our middle infield prospects are never good" and then he's averaged a 4 WAR for the next 9 years. Sox should just bring Sosa up and play him at 2b and have everyone shut up.
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6 hours ago, Quin said:
I mean @Chisoxfn and I are both overly optimistic at times, but this team has a unique way of taking every piece of good news and countering it with one or two pieces of bad news. I can't blame people for being jaded when the core built to contend goes .500 in 2022 (after being picked by a number of outlets to be a World Series contender!) and then following that up with a horrific April.
But that being said, some complaints are nonsensical - like, the Sox haven't signed Aaron Hicks, so don't complain about it.
Yoan Moncada made a music video 3 years ago and people act like he's signed a record deal and is on tour. It was a one-time offseason hobby. If you have problems with that, then get upset about any player that goes hunting. If we want any baseball related activity from that video, at least he stayed in shape, I guess?
But as for the operation of the team itself? Be plenty mad about them when they don't perform. Fans have earned that right. They've earned the right to be mad about the team not stocking up on legitimate starting depth past Davis Martin (Scholtens five innings the other day was a godsend) when they should know that all five starters staying health is a rarity - and in this case, six. Especially because Martin got hurt in his last start last year.
The Sox are frustrating because there are so many self-inflicted, easily corrected mistakes - don't give two prime gratuity years to Tony, actually be serious and seal the deal on Wheeler, Harper, or Machado. So when people defend the Sox smartest-people-in-the-room mentality, that's when people get overly snippy.
*I will note that I was OK with Colas and Lenyn/Romy on the team, but that's as someone that was/still is a pretty big believer in Colas and Lenyn.
I did a look at attendance a few years back when I was arguing that JR wasn't cheap...seems like Sox core attendance is around 18,000...you get 18,000 to Comiskey Park to watch a paddle ball game on a nice summer day. If the fans think they are good...that jumps to 24,000 and if really excited to 30,000. Post WS is 36,000. So if a fan is worth $100 the core income from attendance is $144 million, an ok team is $192 mill, a great team $240 mill and WS $288. I argued that JR is not an idiot, he's a businessman and he understands that the Sox can't count on idiot frat boys turning out on day games to get drunk no matter the product. Cubs base looks to be more like 28-30,000. So if you make payroll through tickets you don't spend when the team is bad but hit the accelerator when they are good. I predicted the payroll would jump to $190 in the window to laughs of derision. And then it did ( top 10 payroll every time they are good for the last four decades). But it's also clear that the next jump was put on hold...partly because JR lost two nearly full years of attendance because of COVID but also because the super exciting team (remember this dirge is only a year old) attendance only jumped to 24,000. Now it is back down to the core at 17,000...of course its early and a hot streak now could lead to big crowds in the meaty months. Still its why the team should probably get moved out to the western suburbs where they can guarantee a much higher base.
The team's future is not turned on a 7th starter or a backup 2b. They need to built up potential star core to produce...which will bring the crowds...which will bring the budget. To me the situation feels like COVID + injuries has hurt us more than any team. Black Sox curse.
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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:
Counting on the same players who are often injured year after year, for some crazy reason, hasn't quite worked out.
Robert has played 98% of the games this year. TA had a five year run of being available 90+% of the time. Eloy is a clumsy kid but appendix is random. Moncada...ok he's an orchid. You can't count on good luck but you shouldn't rely on bad luck either.
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11 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:
Well they have six weeks to prove it on the field and prevent a sell-off, perhaps buy a piece or two.
I think much of the pessimism before Opening Day was not filling the 2B and RF positions, par for the course, and the offseason swapping out Abreu's salary for a corner OF with no power and a 5th starter with various issues. I stayed away from here for 3 months, but came back and have been grateful being engaged with the Sox playing well. Perhaps they are playing bad teams now, but I remember when the Sox were solid and lost to these same bad teams, so I'm glad they are taking care of business and perhaps they will have a healthy Eloy, Tim, and Liam back when the stronger teams hit the schedule in June.
I don't like the narrative for 2023 that they didn't fill the holes at 2b and RF. They did with two of their hottest prospects...Colas and Sosa. It wasn't idiotic to roll them out there, have them bat 8th and 9th and grow up in the majors...but then Moncada got hurt, and TA got hurt and Eloy and we were back to 2023...where you have 4 hitters trying to support the offense and the team couldn't be patient. I'm also not sure what the alternative was. Conforto at 2-$36? Probably would have been a reasonable gamble as it was short term...but obviously risky or he would have gotten more than that. Who at second base was more than just another Josh Harrison? Elvus seems like a fine back up. Yes we will see how it rolls out...it was suboptimal to start off the season with the hardest schedule in baseball (by a wide margin when I looked at it a few weeks ago), the surprise loss of your ace reliever, injuries and a rookie manager. They walked to the center of the ring...got punched in the nose, fell to the mat, crawled to the corner but made it to the bell. Now its the next round. This was never hopeless. The Tigers and Royals are hopeless because they don't have the talent. If we struggle to the trade deadline...sure...begin the rebuild around Robert, Cease and Kopeck. Trade everyone over 30. I just don't think it will be necessary and we will have the cash to trade for a nice part.
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16 minutes ago, FloydBannister1983 said:
So you’re saying that Moncada and Jimenez are the equivalent of Trout and Ohtani?
Seems to be a massive leap.
Also the guys lost aren’t even all stars. Except for Anderson. I think the lost value is in wishful thinking and not in actual production on the field.
Sorry you missed my point. The poster had said that the White Sox injury narrative was "proven" to be untrue. The proof generally runs something like "average games lost by starter per team" and there is some nonsense that the White Sox have been healthy. Using the same "analysis" having Angels 100% healthy outside of losing Trout and Ohtani would still leave them statistically as an above average healthy team. It MATTERS who you lose and when. The White Sox had a core of young players--Moncada, Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn that you needed to learn to play together every day and I think there's been about five games in two years that all four have been out there. Add to that two of your established stars...TA and Grandal have missed more than half the games in the last year. Its hard to get rhythm when everyone is always hurt...and there is a psychological element to teams winning. You think there isn't a darkness that surrounds the team when poor old Eloy has his appendix burst? First for him but then the "what will happen next" hopelessness. As for "not even losing all stars". Robert is 4th in FWar this year...you think having him miss half of last year didn't hurt? Eloy with 45 homers in his first 700 at bats by age 23 and his injuries haven't hurt? Moncada and his 5 WAR and 4 WAR seasons surrounded by injured seasons hasn't hurt the White Sox growth?
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8 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:
I do appreciate your positive optimism and rally cry. (OK...nice start...polite, accepting of a counter position) I'm thankful you informed us nothing is wrong and all are panicking is too much and way overboard. As you summed it up, it looks like the Sox are making the playoffs, which will be easy sailing by going 40-20 in the next 60 games. (And here we go. I forgot for a second it was Soxtalk)
Here is what you are missing:
1. Yes we are only 5.5 games out of first place. However in the last 15 games we have played 12 of them against teams under 500. We play in the worst division in baseball and still 9 games under. This is quintessential ST. Ignoring we had the hardest schedule in baseball the first forty games, with a new manager, our closer suddenly out with cancer and key injuries to our SS/3B which might explain the horrid start (I fully acknowledge it was horrid ) and pointing out that we only win easy games. And 8-3 in our last 11 is meaningless because those games don't count?
2. Your assumption that Tim Anderson will get back to his lofty numbers from a few years ago is ridiculous optimism. It's not just because TA's stat line is the worst ever, he has no power with zero HR's and hits mostly groundballs, weak flyouts and more strikeouts. He has some serious mental issues and his arrogant attitude...that he is still the best player on the field, is now beyond annoying. He was quoted the other day saying, he understand why no pitcher would ever want to throw him a fastball. That is comical! Two games ago TA struck out with two men on with no outs in the top of the 7th when we just went ahead 4-2. Tim's last two swings and misses were basic 94 mph fastballs in the zone. He not only can't hit off speed pitches, which was always his weakness, but now he can't catch up to the fastballs, even though he told us he will kill FB's when he eventually sees them again. Hence why he has a stat line of: BA.244. OBP.284, SLG .282, OPS .565, WAR -0.5.
Tim Anderson had a 4.7 WAR two years ago and LAST year in his first 200 at bats had a .900 OPS and then HE GOT HURT. This year in April he put up his career average .750 OPS and had five doubles in 10 games and HE GOT HURT. So sure, take the 85 at bats coming back from injury as opposed to his career 3000 and use that one at bat you watched to determine he's done.
3. Your analogy of the Sox being a Porsche with a flat tire is wildly exaggerated and hilarious. Even if when we get Eloy back in this lineup, we are still flawed in plate discipline, situational hitting and hitting with RISP. Even with Hendricks coming back and Crochet now back, it will take time for those two to be major contributors. Crochet because he is coming off TJS and Hendricks coming off fighting and beating cancer, while having his strength zapped from such intense chemotherapy and radiation treatments. Yes the starters look good lately and the bullpen is looking better, but if we get any more injuries like Clevinger, we are dead on arrival.
Again...14 months back Vegas and many of the best baseball writers had us amongst the most talented teams in baseball and then everyone got hurt. And you want to mock ME?? You do realize that if, by the END OF THE YEAR, Hendricks and Crochet get back to near peak, and add them to how great Kelly and Graveman and Santos and Middleton have been...that our bullpen could be deadly in a short series?
4. You stated the Burger "feel good" story is now over because he had a couple of bad games. I don't recall reading any poster on SoxTalk saying the Burger's run was over. Yes we all mentioned he had a couple of bad games going 0-15 in the last 4 games. However I do believe imo, a large majority of posters here still believe in Jake and want him in the future lineup daily once Eloy comes back.
You must not read the game threads.
5. Even if this team has this amazing turnaround and wins the worst division in baseball as you are predicting, do you really think they have any chance to go deep in the playoffs?
I'm sorry...I didn't realize you were new to baseball.
6. Finally, most of the people here that you are are complaining about that have reached "Maximum Crazy" is again exaggerated. The posters here are die-hard Sox fans just like you. No there used to be some positive guys on Soxtalk. Positive comments are not treated well here.
However these Sox fans are also stating the obvious facts of the 2016 rebuild debacle.
I'm not sure you know what "debacle" means. They went to the playoffs two years in a row and in a year with crazy injury luck they still finished .500...and their core players are still not even in their peak years. The payroll is manageable...they have no terrible long term contracts...and they are only 5.5 games out with 100 to play.
We still remember vividly the promises of multiple championships and the arrogant comments about, "I'll see you at the parade." Not only has the rebuild been a failure, the biggest crime is the way Hahn and the FO mishandled and destroyed the farm system for now and into the future.
Maybe you haven't been following but Kannapolis and Winston Salem are the most fun follows in years. Colas and Sosa are burning it up in AAA and four of their top prospects--Colson, Ramos, Popeye and Schultz have been hurt for the last month
The Sox farm system was ranked 29th in 2022 and now 26th this season. The most important prospects in any farm system are the pitchers and the ability to keep developing productive pitchers. This is the glaring failure for the Sox. Even if we win the weakest division in baseball this year, we are screwed for the next several years with the farm system. Case in point: In AAA, the Charlotte Knights pitching staff in the 20 team Intl league is dead last with a team ERA of 5.97. If that wasn't enough going wrong, the AA Birmingham Barons are also dead last in the Southern league in team ERA at 5.49.
I ask you seriously, based on this flawed roster, an injury prone team, terrible situational hitting team with RISP and one of the worst farm systems in baseball, not to mention the worst Owner and GM combo in the league....how could you ever compare this team to a Porsche, even with a flat tire?
I am not being negative. (Worst gm, worst owner, seriously flawed roster, debacle of a rebuild, worst farm system, illusionary win streak but never negative) I want this team to win as bad as anyone here. However I won't be burned again and set my expectations so damn high and then get let down again. I did buy into the multiple championships. Going forward it's better I go forward with concerns and reservations and not get too excited. If they prove me wrong, then god bless them and we'll call that a major "blessing in disguise."
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4 hours ago, FloydBannister1983 said:
But as has been pointed out too many times to count the talking point that they are hurt by injuries is a myth. Statistically they remain one of the healthiest teams. They haven’t lost a starting pitcher until the pile of garbage Clevinger went down. Other teams are on their tenth starters.
So if the Angels have everyone healthy all year long and they only loose Ohtani and Trout for the season they are historically healthy? I don't care what sort of nonsense "proof" you have or how healthy the backups are...the Sox have had terrible injury luck. Yes the starting pitchers have been luckier and still if you assume a full season is 32 starts the core 4 lost 20 starts last year. That is losing one of your best pitchers for 2/3rds of the year. Grandal, TA, Jimenez, Robert and Moncada, the very core of your team, lost 340 games. That is equal to losing two star players for the full season. If you want to run out stats that say how historically healthy AJ Pollock was, or how Adam Engel and Josh Harrison were there to answer the call everyday. You have your truth, I have mine. Just don't pretend that your truth is somehow science.
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13 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:
Eh, I appreciate your perspective, so keep coming back. The Sox got very lucky in that the rest of the division has played down to their level allowing them to hang around. In any other division, they would be toast and the rebuild would have started.
To your first points, everyone - literally everyone - has said they have not added a proven MLB 1st tier superstar. JR and Co have billions - they needed to open the pocketbooks to the tune of a $300 million mega star. They didn't do that. It's not that everyone else succeeds when they do, but it is a glaring, glaring oversight to not have added more than Benintendi to this mix - especially when you need HR hitters and he is not one.
I was just going down a rabbit hole of HR hitting for the Sox historically - it's really not good. What is it about playing for the Sox that really stymies power? Is it that the ballpark is facing in the wrong direction?
Yes...it's been frustrating...but still a top 11 payroll and $190 mill spent...and like I said...all of the top 4 payrolls in MLB are at or further behind their division leads than the Sox.
I think the idea that the Sox aren't trying or are stupid is one view, the other is they accumulated a lot of talent and then they've just run into incredibly bad injury luck the last 18 months...Seem to remember they had a 10 year run of good injury luck. Sometimes life is random. The idea of burning it all down seems so pessimistic. As for the home runs...seems like Comiskey park used to be one of the most cavernous parks in baseball.
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51 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Whatever drug you are on...I would love to try some.
Not even sure Baghdad Bob and the Russian war ministry could put such a positive skin on every single thing that has gone wrong with this organization.
Maybe you can get ghost writing credit for the potentially best-selling Rick Hahn biography.
I guess Scholtens is also on his way now with a potential RoY campaign, too.
I mean, this is an owner who gave up on winning in the late 90s when the team was only 2 1/2 or 3 1/2 games behind the Indians at the time, basically in order to save a ton of money.
This is precisely why I rarely engage here anymore. The primary dozen posters on Soxtalk are White Sox haters or trolls. Anyone that tries to find a fun narrative is hunted by the mob. I write a commentary about things being darkest before the dawn with a bunch of reasons why things got ridiculously bad (that first forty game schedule was unbelievable especially for a new manager) and why they could turn around and your response back is 1) personal insult, 2) Personal insult, 3) personal insult, 4) made up argument that makes me sound ridiculous though I never said anything like that 5) tired old story about something that happened 30 years ago that could be viewed negatively. Hey, all of you, enjoy your hatred. Abandon all hope yea who enter Soxtalk.
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Soxtalk is reaching maximum crazy. Two playoff seasons followed by a devastating injury year that still ended up .500 and now a slow start which was a combination of new manager, key injuries and the hardest schedule in baseball the first 40 games....and we are writing the obituary?? If we had only spent money like top four spenders, the Mets (.500 and 4.5 games out), Yankees (3rd place 5 games out), Padres (under .500 and 8 games back) or Phillies (under .500 and 7 games back)? Where did it all go wrong as we stand hopelessly...checking...checking...5.5 games out of first after 50 games....with the easiest schedule the rest of the way? Do we put the 25 year old Andrew Vaughn in the same dumpster as the 26 year old, often appendix victim, Jiminez? Jake Burgers feel good story is now over because he's had a couple of bad games? Tim Anderson's 3000 career .750 OPS is an illusion and his last 85 post injury OPS of .471 is the new normal. Colas and Sosa are now AAAA players because of 80 bad, cold weather, at bats against the five best teams in baseball? Kopech has no future. Lynn is toast. Cease was a fluke. We have no relief pitchers. Yet we are less than 14 months removed from many BB writers in the country saying we had the second best MLB talent...and yes since then the luck has all been bad. But baseball is a marathon and luck changes. We still have starters, relievers and 7 position players that at their best in the last three years have been all star levels. This year the Sox are like a Porsche with a flat tire...it looks great in the driveway but on the road its ugly to watch. But the tires getting fixed. The weathers warming up. Jiminez is coming back, Crochet is back, the four top starters all looked great and went 4-0 in their last four starts. Robert is turning into the superstar we thought. Anderson will burn up the league in June. Vaughn is so close. Burger will continue to be a nice surprise. The bullpen is rounding into shape and It would not be crazy at all to see the sox go 40-20 the next 60 and be 5 games up at the 110 game mark. Then Liam regains his form and becomes the rallying cry for the team...Colas and Sosa unleash their talent. The first six weeks of the season was gut wrenching for all of us...but this happens in baseball. Let's let it play out into the summer. I think this is going to become a really fun team.
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Anyone know anything about Elko for the Cannon Ballers? He's old for the league but he put up a 1000 OPS in the SEC and now has 8 home runs and 6 doubles in his first 100 at bats. Not on top 30 prospect list...but his SO rate has dropped this year and his walk rate is way up. Sleeper?? Also fun to see Baldwin off to a good start...near .400 OBP with 6 stolen bases in 17 games. Winston Salem at 19-7, the Kannapolis over .500...a little bit of hope for the future??
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11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
You're right that the White Sox will struggle if their handful of guys don't stay perfectly healthy, but aside from Last Year's Guardians, everyone has severe injuries that they have to deal with. If the White Sox can't overcome injuries, this isn't a statement that the White Sox are unlucky! This is a statement that the White Sox's core is too darn weak, that the team isn't that well put together, and that people are convincing themselves that "no team could survive this many injuries" as a way to cover for that.
The Sox team of the 90's..Thomas, Durham, Robin, Ordonez, Ozzie all went through many years of 150 games played...most great players I've ever followed have 5 of 6 years with great health. To call Robert, TA, Grandall and Moncada weak is just ridiculous. Sometimes bad luck happens. Phillies spent a jillion $'s on free agents then for a three year period 19-20-21 they were sub .500 team and last year went to the World Series. This Soxtalk negativity is exhausting.
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12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Why wouldn’t he? Because he has no plate discipline. You seem to be on such a crusade for positivity that you lack objectivity. Cespedes still has a chance to be a major league 4th OF, but he’s got a long way to go before he gets there and you haven’t cited a single reason to believe he will. When 5’ 9” Cespedes has 80 grade power and walks 15% of the time we can start using Aaron Judge as support believing his 30% K rate won’t be detrimental to major league success.
Your right...no player ever improves their strike out rates from their second season in the minors. I mean sure Robert had over 25% milb strike out rate that dropped to 19% last year in the majors. And every year there are dozens of players that dramatically improve their SO rate. https://www.rotoballer.com/top-strikeout-rate-improvements-for-hitters/987995.
But yes...canon arm, super fast, good defender, plus plus raw power...strikes out a lot...put a fork in him. You seem to be on such a crusade for negativity that you lack objectivity. Good luck with that. So much fun to look into the future and predict doom.
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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
The Braves in 2021 lost Ronald Acuna Jr for the season and the guy they were hoping could come back to be their top starter, Soroka, had his ankle blow out again and never threw a pitch. Other guys like Fried and Anderson also spent time on the IL, and Marcel Ozuna had some other non-injury personal issues. Here’s a straightforward article on how the Braves had to overcome those injuries for an improbable title:
If the White Sox lose Robert in July for the season, Benintendi gets suspended most of the year, and let’s say Lynn never throws a pitch next year, we will hear exactly the same thing about how no one could ever overcome the stuff the White Sox lost to still contend.
OK that's fair about the Braves...like I said I didn't do an extensive study on playoff teams...just looked at at bats as sorted by OPS. But I've also followed baseball for a long time and losing five of your best hitters for half a season was unusual last year. Many teams don't lose any of their guys for half a season. The White Sox will have another terrible year if our core five have less than 2000 at bats. Is that framed properly for you?
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3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
There is no such thing as too much of a good thing when it comes to baseball players. The Sox still need a better 4th OF RIGHT Now. They can't wait on Cespedes for this year. But the Sox may feel they now have enough OF anyway. But long way to go. No telling what Hahn is thinking now. We may see a prospect or 2 traded or a piece off the 26 or not much else at all for the rest of the off season.
They have some depth at 2b as with Romy, Sosa and Popeye Rodriguez but can any of them provide better than average defense which would be the only way to play them with the Sox if they aren't going to hit. One of them has to step up if that's what the Sox end up going with.
Of course you are right...someone posted the FG article on top prospect bust rate and it was eye opening. So if you throw Outman, Cespedes and Colas in the outfield maybe one of them becomes really good...maybe none? The larger point is how important is your fifth outfielder. Look at 2005 WS team. Jermaine Dye was your second most games played in the outfield and he was Eloy level defense. Timo Perez was your primary 4th outfielder and 34 year old Carl Everett was 5th...and that team won the WS.
As for your second base comments...Romy, Sosa and Popeye...you said take a chance on the young guys...Romy put up an .800 OPS across 1200 career minor league at bats and he is by far the worst of the three prospects. Yes it's a chance playing them but so is signing 30 year old Adam Frazier to $8 mill after .612 OPS season last year. For a long window and a budget limited to $190 Mill...we need to keep getting value from young guys..
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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:
But that’s clearly misleading.
The 2021 Astros did get 3000 plate appearances from their top 6 OPS guys.
That did not include former all star Alex Bregman, who had a .777 OPS and only 400 plate appearances because he struggled with injuries.
It also doesn’t include Michael Brantley, who was 34 at the time and only played 120 games.
Those Astros created a deep enough roster that when guys like Bregman had injury issues, other people could pick up the slack.
The 2022 Yankees definitely did not get 3000 plate appearances from their top 5 guys. Neither did the 2021 Yankees, so I’m not sure what you’re talking about there.
Sorry...2500 at bats for Yankees. .. was looking at PA. But the POINT (not misleading) is that TA, Yoan, Robert, Eloy and Grandal were meant to be the core of a powerful offenses and they all had less than 400 at bats. I chose three teams that were big winners and they all had their key players have more than 500 at bats. The Braves in 21 had four of their top 5 OPS guys with an average of 600 at bats. Teams good players sometimes are healthy. Last year Leury had more at bats than Eloy, Pollock more than Moncada, Harrison more than TA. If we can replace bad hitters with good over 500-1000 at bats I think it moves the needle....but you are welcome to your negativity.
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6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Why do you think Cespedes will take two steps forward this year?
He has great baseball bloodlines. He was thought of as MLB.com's #1 International prospect when he signed 2 years ago right now. He was "considered a five-tool player with above-average tools across the board". He had been out baseball basically for two years . Came to US in 2021 and in his first taste in the US, after two years of sitting out he put up a combined .800 OPS across High A and Birmingham. Last year in the always tough park for hitters Birmingham in 500 at bats he put up a .770 OPS and stole 33 bases at 75% success rate. This year he's going to hitter friendly Charlotte. I think if he plays a full year in Charlotte he will be a 30/30 guy. Yes his strike out rate is concerning but Aaron Judge strikes out 30% of the time. A lot of guys do. I know it's an unpopular position to be positive on Soxtalk but...why wouldn't he take a big step forward? He's just turned 25. He's Cuban. Sox destiny is to have an outfield of Cespedes/Robert/Colas for five years.
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16 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:
lmao
A self loathing Sox fan...how rare and intriguing. Thanks for your incite
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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
The idea is to thrive not survive.
I think they will thrive. I think Robert is going to have a full year, 150 games, like he did in 2021. I think Colas will be great. Beni is very steady. Cespedes will take two steps forward in AAA this year. They've had very bad luck with injuries for two years in a row...they are due for better luck.
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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:
If that happens this is one of the best teams in baseball. It’s very unlikely they get 150+ out of all those guys, tho.
One year ago that is what we all thought was our future. That's pretty much what 2021 Astros did (145 games and 3000 at bats from their top 5 OPS guys, 2022 also 3000 at bats. Yankees and Dodgers also over 3000 at bats from their top 5). White Sox got under 2000 at bats from their core five. Replacing .650 OPS with .850 OPS over extra 1000 at bats fixes our offense no matter what the rookies at 2b and RF do.
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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:
Problem really is health. Robert misses extended time, which is something we frankly should expect, Sox are rough shape. Same goes for Benintendi for that matter. Another major league quality player out there would be ideal.
Yes the problems are clear. We need health luck. I'm not ready to call a 24 year old broken at this point. They need their core five (Vaughn, TA, Moncada, Robert and Eloy) to each play 150 games and play as they did when they were at their best. If those 5 can be .850 OPS combined over 2500 at bats the offense will be fine.
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25 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:
Outman and Cespedes aren’t mutually exclusive. We now have two actual major league outfielders plus Colas and Cespedes. That’s not enough upper level system depth
The problem is that you have to trade pieces to get someone like Outman. And while Jimenez was not a good defensive outfielder...if he had to play 15 or 20 games out there we would survive. Same with Sheets. Victor Reyes has 1000 MLB at bats of at least Luery quality. Billy Hamilton in the minors. Mieses is young but had a pretty good year in Birmingham last year. I'm not sure other teams have some great fourth and fifth outfielder...it is unlikely to be the thing that sinks the White Sox in 2023
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11 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
I guess you are comparing Outman to Cespedes. My scouting reports from MLB Pipeline have Outman at 55, 60, 60 Power, Run, Field.
Cespedes 50, 55,50
I trust your fangraphs scouting reports are accurate. Its hard to say when looking at the scouting grades if they are old or updated even though I am looking at the Updated Top Prospects from August 16,2022 from Pipeline. I think the update list is just where they rank the player in the teams top 30 list and I have no idea how old the scouting grades are.
I don't think Cespedes is garbage I just don't think he is MLB ready yet, whereas I think Outman is ready based on his 2022 slash lines at AA and AAA and 4 game sample in MLB. And all the guys I've been talking about appear MLB ready or had already logged some time in MLB. Hence I don't talk about Cespedes except to say he isn't good enough RIGHT NOW. Defensively he is but not offensively.
Outman 6'3" 215 2022
AA 68 G .295 .394 .552 .946 38 BB 89 K 16 HR
AAA 57 G .292 .390 .627 1.017 32 BB 63K 15 HR
Total 125 G .294 .392 .586 .978 70 BB 152K 31 HR
Cespedes 5'9" 205 2022
AA 119 G .258 .332 .437 .769 29BB 154K 17 HR
Obviously they both K a ton but Outman substantially higher in BB's and everything else except steals. Plus Outman is LH and Cespedes is RH. I always think a LHB putting up very good numbers in AA and AAA has a better shot to do well in MLB because most pitchers are RH and most batters hit opposite handed pitchers better so a LHB will see RHP a lot more than a RHB will see LHP.
I hope Cespedes can put up great numbers in AAA but he has some work to do on his plate discipline and to increase his offensive numbers.
Getting Outman is a long shot anyway. The Sox have already picked up Hamilton, Payton and Reyes and have Leury but I still think a more substantial power guy is needed as a 4th OF. The MLB readiness and power plus run and field is why we'd have to give up something for him but as I said a long shot because the Dodgers have their own OF problems.
I agree that Cespedes isn't ready yet...but I also think closer than people give him credit for. He's got a canon of an arm, is fast and has raw power...after signing Benintendi, having an outfield of Colas, Beni and Robert is exciting. Outman right now is way ahead of Cespedes...but will he be in July? And what would you have to give up to get him? If you brought up Cespedes he would immediately give you a plus defender, ++ arm, ++ speed and power. Maybe Adam Engel with upside? It's a crucial year for Cespedes so losing a key asset to get Outman feels like you are giving up on Cespedes and not any more likely to succeed.
Why did the downfall happen and could it have been avoided?
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
See it's this kind of brilliant analysis that I come here for...the Houston Astros the 10 years after they lost the WS to the White Sox lost an average of 95 games. HORRIBLE organization....everyone there is an idiot. There is no hope for the future. I am stupid. I think it is fitting that the last words I hear on Sox Talk as I cancel my account is "Get Fucked" by the Global Moderator.