michelangelosmonkey
-
Posts
974 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
8
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
-
-
19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
So basically all of our prospects are going to pan out...fine.
There’s really no point in having a message board if we have to believe Collins will be just fine as a hitter.
Have been watching MLB since 1979, and it’s very very rare to go from where he’s at to a regular when under the stress of a win now situation.
He just won’t get enough playing time to ever develop a consistent offensive rhythm, and Mercedes is cutting into his at-bats as well.
The odds of Stiever being in a future rotation are about 1 in 50...for the very same reasons we parted with Dunning, to get someone in the short term who’s closer to Top 10-15 Cy Young caliber THIS season.
Same exact reason we traded a much bigger haul for Jeff Samardzija back in 2015.
For all those saying we are great at developing pitching, there’s only really Giolito since the Sale/Q years, and Lucas 90-95% did it through going outside the organization. Lopez and Fulmer were fails. Cease is still a massive work and progress, and Rodon could have been signed by any almost any team in baseball willing to offer $5+ million or two years guaranteed.
So basically all our prospects will fail...fine. Enjoy the team
-
52 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Three years ago, the outfield of the Sox future had infinite possibilities. There were five prospects in our Top 12-15.
No way in a million years am I now counting on Cespedes or Colas...just hoping to be pleasantly surprised for once. Robert is a once in a generation talent.
Cease is at best a mixed bag on contradictions a year away from being Reynaldo Lopez, Collins is what he is and Rodon has Scott Boras as his agent and no option. Think Eovaldi signing long-term with Boston of he ends up Top 10 in the Cy Young race.
In fact, it might be better to keep Rodon for 50% of Giolito’s extension ask and allocate the remainder of the savings elsewhere.
I'm not guaranteeing Cespedes or Colas...it was merely a thought experiment about putting together a team 0f 28 and younger. I also think it's unfair to trash our OF prospects from 3 years ago...they all were exciting in 2018, moved up to the very difficult to hit park in Birmingham in 2019...and yes didn't adjust very well...then Covid in 2020 and now delayed start. One could still break through. As for Collins "is what he is"?? He has flashed much improved defensive skills and if he ever got a 20 game stretch to prove it...I think he hits. I like extending Rodon and as for Gio...we have him under contract this year and TWO YEARS MORE. By that time Stiever and Vera and Dahlquist and Kelley and Thompson could make his resigning irrelevant. Still always nice to have you pee on a happiness thread.
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:
No different than the 90s Indians though, no? That team was built around a top offense, which I think the Sox have for years to come.
If you forced every team to have a roster of 28 or younger White Sox would have: Vaughn 1b- 23, Madrigal 2b-24, Tim Anderson SS-28, Moncado 3b-26, Cespedes RF-23, Robert CF-23, Eloy LF-24, Collins C-26, Yermin DH-28. Mendick 27 Utility, Colas utility of -22 Gio-25, Cease-26, Kopech-25, Rodon 28, Vera-20 . Crochett 22, Heuer-24, Foster-26, Bummer 27, Ruiz 26. Burdi-26...and that barely touches our top 30 minor leaguers. Honestly there can't be a team that can beat that group of young players. And the great thing (that so many on Soxtalk say is a terrible thing) is we have pretty close to zero bad contracts...we have money to spend and in spite the reputation JR spends money (top five payroll) when the team is good. We are in for an exciting five year run.
-
1
-
1
-
-
43 minutes ago, Texsox said:
If he hits at a better than .250 pace he'd be our best DH this century. So if it is pessimistic it's grounded in history.
I don't think history has anything to do with unique individuals or teams. Historically Steph Curry shouldn't hit 43% of his 3pt shots...he will regress to the mean...except he happens to be Steph Curry. Historically the Cubs shouldn't have won the 2016 WS. I think history works if you say, "historically Yolmer Sanchez had 8 years of .720 OPS in the minors so his looking good in spring and going 5-5 on opening day is an illusion." But Yermin has 8 years in the minors with .860 OPS so...maybe we have something here. Still if you had said "historically guys who's first name begins with the letter Y can't hit in the majors"...well that would have made me happy out of the goofiness of it.
-
3
-
-
2 minutes ago, Texsox said:
Kids this is your brain on alcohol. (I love the enthusiasm and optimism)
The stat heads will say regress to the mean. He wakes up tomorrow the same guy who toiled and sacrificed for years. He will end the year as a .250 hitter.
I think that's a bit too pessimistic. I'm not part of the "he hit everywhere" crowd" either because he was released by the Orioles at 24...because he had a sub .800 OPS in high A with no position. And yes he hit well after that but every year he was a couple years older than his competition...which matters in the minors. Still I think the narrative that he never really got a chance as a youngster because he had such a bad body and really had no position makes some sense...which justifies his being older than league average the last few years. I think you have to explore what you have here and it is a weird silver lining in the Eloy getting hurt thing. You get Collins/Vaughn/Yermin playing 120 games each between DH/LF/C/1B (160/100/50/50) and really learn what you have in them. If they are all good...and Eloy comes back...well that's a good problem to have. If nothing else...5 for 5 was magical for one night.
-
2
-
-
Fernando Tatis Jr struck out three times yesterday and committed an error. Dodged a bullet by trading that kid.
-
1
-
-
Honestly did no one notice the whole farm system was shut down in 2020 because of Covid? We had a bunch of interesting prospects that looked great in 2018...then they had a hard time transitioning to Birmingham...as many many do...with hopes for them catching up in 2020 suddenly the world changed. I think this is a very big year for the Sox farm teams...maybe they are all busts but let's be patient.
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, ThirdGen said:
You have the Fisk experiment completely wrong. It was 100% Harrelson's idea, LaRussa was completely opposed. It was a major part of the feud that led to LaRussa's firing.
I do agree that Vaughn should not be our left fielder.
Carlton Fisk was 38 years old when they tried him in LF after spending 20 years squatting. As unathletic as Vaughn may be, he's 23 with fresh legs. It is a suboptimal solution but...Eloy is gone, Engel is gone all and of our OF prospects lost 2020 to the Covid. In trying times you try things out.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:
Played in LF frequently in Schaumburg? What? At most I read he took "some reps" in LF. His primary work was at 1st base since he was a first baseman. He also took "some reps" at third base. He's not a third baseman.
You are tying up my argument in semantics. No one knows precisely how much he played LF in Schaumburg but we know with certainty that they were trying to get him into the lineup and were trying him at LF and as he was there all day in Schaumburg for months I suspect every day for months they had him do some LF work. The real point is LF is one of the least valuable defensive positions in baseball and the one in the outfield where you can hide a bad arm. The Red Sox managed two World Series with a terrible fielding LF. I suspect Vaughn will be a bad LF but so was Eloy. It seems the real choice you make is Collins bat verses Leury's glove...which will add more value. Nothing is certain but I'd bet on Collins bat.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:
We are not doing this so we can get Collins bat in the lineup. We are doing it so we can keep both Vaughn and Eloy long term. This isn't that hard to figure out
I'm not sure I follow...are you saying this is the long term switch of Vaughn to LF and Eloy to DH? I think this is really the thing that will make Collins our long term C. He will prove to be such a valuable left handed bat at DH this year and a passable C that it will be penciled in as full time catcher by...2023?
-
58 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:
Now see, your point about "not taking good routes" is what has me worried. If there's a situation where there's a couple of men on and there's a hard hit ball to left field and it's a play that all normal left fielders will make, even Eloy, but Vaughn misplays it and both those runners score and possibly cost us that game.......That's what I mean by can he make all the routine plays. If this happens then he shouldn't be out there.
Manny Ramirez was a terrible LF...from 2003-2007 averaging -1.7 dWAR. For reference Eloy in 2019 was a -1.4. Manny did NOT make every catch every LF should make...in spite of his terrible defense the Bsox managed to get to the playoffs in four of those five years and won two WS. We are not doomed. Vaughn played in LF frequently in Schaumburg last year. He's 23. We aren't asking him to split them atom...and honestly with Robert in CF he catches everything anyway. It is terrible that Eloy got hurt but every team goes through injuries...expect more...it's how we manage around them and I am intrigued by Vaughn LF/Collins DH mix way more than I am about a Leury Garcia LF/Vaugn DH.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:
Baseball is such an interesting sport that way...for a month you won't be able to get a guy out and then for a month he won't be able to buy a hit. The great thing about this White Sox team is they have a roster of guys that can carry the team. One month it will be Robert, Anderson and Abreu and then it will be Vaughn, Moncada and Collins as long as we have three guys always hot and Madrigal, Grandal and Eaton just getting on base...we'll score a lot of runs...and with this pitching staff...we should win a lot of games.
Thinking about this got me curious and I just looked at Frank Thomas's career split OPS by month...
Apr: .917
May: .998
June: 1.016
July .978
August: .965
Sept: .965
Oh Frank how we miss you.
-
6 minutes ago, fathom said:
He’s 2 for last 22 with ten strikeouts. Of course it’s small sample size, but they haven’t been competitive at bats. No one is saying he’s awful, but he does need to make some improvements from last year for this team to excel this season.
Baseball is such an interesting sport that way...for a month you won't be able to get a guy out and then for a month he won't be able to buy a hit. The great thing about this White Sox team is they have a roster of guys that can carry the team. One month it will be Robert, Anderson and Abreu and then it will be Vaughn, Moncada and Collins as long as we have three guys always hot and Madrigal, Grandal and Eaton just getting on base...we'll score a lot of runs...and with this pitching staff...we should win a lot of games.
-
1
-
-
Just now, Vulture said:
There hasn’t been five seasons since 2016😆
I know it’s a bold prediction but that’s my call
I would actually be happy for him...as long as Rodon puts up a 4 WAR as well. i strongly rooted for Sox to bring in Q...though clearly I should have spent more time doing math.
-
1 minute ago, Vulture said:
Quintana’s going to have a big year. He looked filthy in his limited action last year and he looks the same this spring. I’m calling 4 WAR right now provided he stays healthy
I love Quintana too...and I would have been happy with a him as the fifth starter...but at the moment I'd take Rodon. I like your bold prediction of a 4 WAR but he's put up 5 WAR total in the last five years and it's been since 2016 since he's been great.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:
I'm not sure it really matters because his fastball is so hittable.
The doom and gloom on Cease is impressive. Working on his mechanics this spring
IP H ER SO
Cease 11.2 7 1 11
Every other fan base would be so excited by their 25 year old starter hitting 99 on the gun....and looks to be our 5th starter. We continue to scour the silver lining trying to find the cloud.
-
I can't believe what a total disaster Cease is. Why didn't they make that trade with Pittsburgh...useless management...total idiots.
Spring Stats
IP H R BB SO
Cease 9.2 7 1 6 7
Musgrove 13 15 10 5 11
Soxtalk gonna Soxtalk
-
2
-
-
23 minutes ago, Sox80 said:
Hopefully the book will be closed on Lopez. He's not a major league pitcher.
It's too bad...he looked pretty good three years ago. Four years on all we have to show for the Adam Eaton trade is Gio, Lance Lynn and Adam Eaton.
-
1
-
3
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, bmags said:
As I recall, Lopez is the same as Joe Musgrove.
If I recall Rodon and Collins are garbage....and spring training is meaningless. But sure, mock away.
-
14 minutes ago, fathom said:
more good contact by Collins....can he play RF
Honestly how is Collins not the back up catcher?? I know some of the insiders on here say that Lucroy is a lock...but why? Collins looks competent as a catcher defensively and he has good at bats and he's a lefty. Lucroy would be fine as a back up catcher but you can't carry three catchers...and why would you take old and fine over young, promising and left handed?
-
1
-
-
56 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:
So, thats not "sitting out 2019." Saying a guy "sat out 2019" implies he never threw a pitch.
Wow that is aggressive correcting of a statement I didn't make. The way the whole quotation mark thing works is you're exactly quoting what someone says. Here's what I said "If after two years of sitting out he can come back for a late career surge..." I also said his arm fell off in 2019 which it did...they shut him down in August 2019 and he's coming back in July of this year. If you want to say "Dude they only shut him down for 23 months" fine. I'm just not sure what your point is.
-
8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
With Sale, you're on the hook for $115 million, for, at best, 3 1/2 seasons.
Roughly $33 million/year.
He's not going to be back until at least July, according to all reports. And that's at the earliest.
Bigger question, will he be able to throw his sharp breaking slider with confidence in that elbow, or will be it be that bigger, lopping, slurvier version.
That MIGHT work, but not if his fastball velocity's down in the low 90's.
If the White Sox refuse to run $140-160 million payrolls out there...then it's a non-starter. Right now, there are no guarantees either way, just words. The only thing with Rick Hahn we can actually believe in are actions, not empty promises and PR-speak gobbledygook.
The risk is he's just a shell of the guy he used to be. Adam Wainwright was TOR type pitcher, went out in his late twenties and then returned for a couple more elite seasons. Trade deadline is July 31st and CS is due back early July. If he throws four starts and looks really good...you can make the money work. Boston has lots of bad contracts and saving half of Sale's deal in a period when they are non-contenders should be interesting to them.
Our biggest departure is on the "budget". Sox were top 5 payrolls in the 00's, 90's and 80's when the team was really good. Top five payroll now is $170 million and I'm not sure what you see that makes you think they won't follow the same pattern...cheap ass when we are bad but paying up when we are good...JR is a businessman and that all makes sense.
-
8 hours ago, manbearpuig said:
Where are you seeing that he sat out for 2 seasons? He started 25 games in 2019.
Not quite...he left early August 2019 and is due back July 2021.
-
1
-
-
16 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:
Eh Sale is right where he wants to be. If I recall, he and his wife love Boston. He he even said Boston was one of the (the only maybe?) city his wife traveled to every year when they played on the road. Like you said, he has his ring so why would he care who pays him if he is right where he wants to be?
Sportrac says the Red Sox Salary for this year is $180 mil...and $140 committed for next year...and they were a last place team. If you are looking at where to send the vultures...you go after high payroll, disappointing teams. If Sale could be talked into it...wouldn't you want him? 2018 he was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 6.9 WAR...and then his arm fell off. If after two years of sitting out he can come back for a late career surge I can't imagine a more exciting, realistic, option.
-
1
-
Adam Eaton v. Joc Pederson v. Nomar Mazara
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Mazara was 5th in ROY voting at 21. At 22 he had 20 homers and 100 RBI's. He improved his OPS every year at Texas, and his dWar improved every year. He was a lefty hitting RF that fit in with the age group of our young core. Of course there were risks but it wasn't "stupid" to take a chance last year on him. I think an Eaton bounce back was as risky this year as a Mazara bounce back. Sometimes you get lucky.