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Eminor3rd

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Posts posted by Eminor3rd

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Value depends on the market. We all have a sense of what we feel like a guy “like Cease” would be worth in an average scenario, but realistically the price is going to depend upon how many suitors remain when all the reasonable alternatives to Cease are off the table. I think there’s a good chance that the situation is right for a Cease deal after Yamamoto/Snell sign, because Glasnow should theoretically require a different kind of return — but it’s totally possible that it ends up making more sense to wait until the deadline, accepting the injury risk, since Cease will still have the additional year of control.

    I wish I had reason to believe that Getz will be able to read the market properly, but we’ll never truly know, since we won’t know what will ultimately be offered. Regardless, I think a deal is really unlikely until the top free agents sign. 

    • Like 1

    DeJong to Sox

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Texsox said:

    Because not many folks want guys rushed to the majors like Vaughn. 

    It's "give the young guys a chance" until they under perform then "blame the team for rushing them."

     

    It’s worth noting, though, that Shewmake wasn’t rushed whatsoever. He spent one year per level, and has topped out repeating AAA. 

    • Like 2

    DeJong to Sox

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by Eminor3rd

    2 hours ago, Sleepy Harold said:

    Although the placeholders will most certainly stink, making the prospects earn the job over just handing it to them out of negligence/necessity is a refreshing change of pace. 

    I mean, I guess. I see a team perennially crying poor that traded a reliever, which it needed, for a post-hype glove-only player with some upside. Then they immediately spent some of their limited resources getting a 30 year old player with the same strengths and weaknesses except no upside. 

    If you’re rebuilding, Shewmake needs reps at the big league level. If you’re contending, neither Shewmake nor Dejong is good enough, and btw you actually still need Bummer.

    And if, whats most likely actually true, this is a wasted transition year and someone is just going to hold the position warm for Montgomery, there’s no reason at all for that not to be Shewmake, who could at least turn into something tradable or useful. What are the chances that can trade Dejong for something more valuable than Shewmake anyway? In what world do you need both? 

    This just feels like random move-making 

    • Like 1

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by Eminor3rd

    Gonna have to see who’s left after the free agents sign, realistically, to find out what the price is for Cease. If two motivated buyers remain with good systems, the price could be quite high. Otherwise, the deadline might be the better time to sell.

    I tend to think they’ll make a deal this winter, but it’s not impossible to see some small market contenders settle for mid rotation free agents given Cease’s down year. 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    12 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said:

    Right now our starting staff has to be the worst I’ve seen since I became a Sox fan in 1952, I don’t see how we can trade Cease at this time unless there are plans to sign some decent free agent pitchers. I also wouldn’t be unhappy if they brought back Giolitio, he wasn’t that bad with the Sox in 2023 with a .500 record and a 3.74 ERA. He stunk the rest of the year after we traded him, depending on what he wants and for how long I think he ‘s worth a shot.

    There isn't REALLY a path to contention in 2024, but I'm guessing that the FO has decided the fanbase isn't ready to hear them utter "rebuild." Because they think we're idiots, it seems like (based on Getz' comments about no one being untouchable + the rumors of them shopping guys like Cease), that they're going to just do it anyway and pretend they aren't -- perhaps believing that it will give them the cover to half-ass it instead of trying again to do it properly. This could be either because Jerry can't handle the wait, or because they've correctly assessed that they aren't in a good position to pivot (with so many of their expensive players currently with no trade value), or both.

    I predict we're going to see an offseason very similar to what you'd see from the Tigers, in which a lot of money will be spent on short-term veterans that fill holes and be dealt if useful, but won't stop any of the prospects from earning PT along the way. The hope will be that the "core" bounces back to the extent that a run at the division is possible with the stopgaps in place, but they'll settle for merely having a lot of guys to move for more low-upside, close-to-the-majors prospects that can provide similar value for cheap going forward.

    Was trying to keep the cynicism out but it crept back there toward the end, sorry.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Given the current state of the organization, I think it would be really risky to hold Cease until the deadline.  One serious shoulder or elbow injury and you’re left with nothing.

    Absolutely — plus it’s a clear sellers’ market now, meaning the upside from the deadline represents less of a premium than in an average year. 

    • Like 3

    Tim Anderson Free Agency Discussion

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    If Amed Rosario wants multiple years, then nah I won't want him. I'd take him for 1 year, for less money than Anderson's option.

    Yeah I'd totally go for Kiner-Falefa if he got $5 million or less. Dude outperformed Anderson last year!

    I agree, but given the dearth of available shortstops, I don’t see those guys coming at those prices. 

    Tim Anderson Free Agency Discussion

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Balta1701 said:

    Lighting money on fire by spending it inefficiently sounds an awful lot like the most likely outcome of picking up Tim Anderson's option. The downside risk is $14 million, which is a lot for a guy coming off a negative WAR season.

    Last offseason, no one got $14 million for putting up a negative WAR 2022 - if you exclude Conforto (out for the year) and international free agents. Out of this group of players, Kahnle got the largest contract at 2 years/$11 million total. 

    Right but who are you going to get on a one-year deal that has a chance to be better? Multiple years for Amed Rosario or Kiner-Falefa coming off 0.2 fWAR seasons? One year for a bit less for Brandon Crawford coming off a 63 wRC+? Didi Gregorious coming off of 58 wRC+? They're still gonna have to spend, it's just going to be a for a worse player, or a more expensive one, or both.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Tim Anderson Free Agency Discussion

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by Eminor3rd

    I think I would have picked this option up.

    It's very likely Tim will bounce back significantly next year (even if only to league average), simply because it's hard to replicate such an abysmal season for a player who still has so much of his peak athleticism remaining. Moreover, one more year of TA is the perfect bridge to Montgomery, without any reasonable short-term alternative elsewhere in the system. Now, if they want to "compete," the only options are to (1) rush Montgomery, or (2) sign a free agent, which will be less talented than TA and cost just as much (or more, in terms of years).

    Actually, now that I think about it, this gives the Sox a couple options they are quite comfortable with: ruin prospects by rushing them to the majors and/or light money on fire by spending it as inefficiently as possible on middling players in free agency. 

    I guess if I'm steel-manning the move, it may simply be the case that the year was so unbelievably toxic and TA had such a miserable season that there was just no way to expect better results in 2024 without a change of scenery. I can believe this.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
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