QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 22, 2010 -> 05:39 PM)
There's a lot of saber-people on this board, myself included. We're well aware of Jenks' good peripherals.
The issue here is that he's getting hit very hard. The reason as to why his FIP and xFIP are so low is that he's not giving up home runs. This is due to a unsustainable and abnormal 20% FB rate. His LD rate and GB rate consist of nearly 70% of his batted balls in play, 22% of them being line drives, the highest mark of his career.
That's the reason for the .402 BABIP. The high LD and GB rates result in a tERA of 3.66.
Could it be bad luck? Maybe. But if you're just laying a flat 94 MPH fastball in there, you'd be lucky for it to be an out.
Randy Wells has had a similar case of this year. His LD rate was insanely high, but he maintained good peripherals.
Good response, chw42.
You guys see Jenks everyday and I don't, but it's still tough for me to think a guy that is striking out 11 per 9 has totally lost his stuff. If he had, folks wouldn't be swinging and missing so often.