QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 11, 2014 -> 08:15 AM)
I don't remember the exact numbers, but the difference between the least optimized lineup and the most optimized lineup is like 20-30 runs, which is 2-3 wins in a context neutral setting, and much of that difference can be cancelled out by dumb luck, which you cannot control for in any setting.
And I believe that is almost always the difference. If you have good hitters, you'll score runs no matter how the lineup is set, and if you have bad hitters, you won't score runs, no matter how the lineup is set.
Am I the only one a bit disturbed by the fact it took much statistical analysis of lineups for this to be proven?