Black_Jack29

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 12:20 PM) In my world where you recognize this is a dramatically undertalented team and unbelievably weak franchise, you trade Frazier for the best return you can get for him now, and you see if you get a 3b back in the deals where you trade Sale, Abreu, and/or Quintana. If you do not get a 3b back, you don't worry about it - you take the best deals you can for those guys and your franchise is rebuilding. In that case, you look to the FA market. Set yourself a budget of maybe $5 million and target someone like Aaron Hill or Mark Reynolds - someone who fills the position for you but that you have nothing invested in. If they have a good first half you consider trading them at the deadline - if that adds some minor talent to your organization somewhere great, if it does not then you've limited your expenses. Within a year or two, combining the young players returned from trades and your own draftees, you should begin having most of those positions filled with quality major leaguers. When you have taken your team from 6-7 starters filled by fringe major leaguers to 1-2 positions, then you go out and spend big in either trades or FA to fill those remaining positions and now you are loaded for bear. If the Sox can get a budding 3B star via trade this winter, I wouldn't have a problem with that. But it would have to be a very highly-regarded 3B prospect, as I don't see anybody in their farm system that they can fall back on. The Sox have had a ton of difficulty filling this position since Crede and it would be bad for them to go down that road again. My major caveat is that I expect the Sox to get ML-ready or near-ML-ready prospects to fill positions of need in return for somebody like Sale. That would mean that they're competitive by 2019, in which case Frazier would still be close enough to his prime to be useful in that lineup.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 12:37 PM) So what? still not a good 1-5 hitter... Based on what criteria? My criteria for constructing a lineup are: 1-3 hitters get on base (OBP of .330 or higher) and the 3-5 hitters ideally hit 50+ extra-base hits per season (high SLG). Based on that, my 1-5 lineup for the Sox this season would've been... 1. Eaton 2. Melky 3. Abreu 4. Frazier 5. Morneau

QUOTE (captain54 @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 11:50 AM) Last I checked, Frazier leads MLB regular 3rd base guys in strikeouts, and lowest BA.. The original plan was to have Frazier as the guy in the lineup to protect Abreu.. it didn't happen.. as far an extension, I think it depends on how the rest of the lineup shakes down.. despite the power, I don't see how Frazier fits into the 1-5 hole.. too many lost offensive opportunities in 16' without enough bonafide hitters 1-5 Frazier hit 40 homers, 21 doubles, and drove in 98 runs. How is that not a legit #4 or #5 hitter? Another thing to consider is who plays 3B if Frazier is allowed to walk after next season. The Sox would have to address that before they parted ways with him.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 11:06 AM) Yeah I don't see both going. I think one goes this offseason (Sale) and the other in the next year/year and a half (Quintana). No, I mean that you need to keep one of them for the rebuilding process. Rodon is the only starter who has been proven to get ML hitters out. Fulmer still needs work and he probably won't be more than a #3. I think that the Sox should keep Q and rebuild and him, Rodon, Fulmer, Nate Jones, Frazier, Abreu, Eaton, and Anderson. Q is under team control through 2020 and if the Sox do their rebuild properly, they should be competitive by 2019.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) Love this post. I have Sale to Boston and Q to LAD as well. I think that you need to keep one of those guys. The Sox rotation would suck for a long time with Rodon being the only one who's been proven to get out ML hitters.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2016 -> 08:27 AM) I'd like to argue this morning that a Frazier extension is a poor idea for the White Sox. Todd Frazier is a guy who I think is likely to be among the "fast dropoff" players. He is a guy with one strong plus tool - power. He has poor plate discipline overall - a strikeout rate above 20% and a walk rate only 8%, for his career. That means he's a guy who swings a lot, makes limited contact, but gets value when he makes contact because the ball goes far. In general, these are guys who do not age well. I think generally speaking statistics bears this out - Fraziers skill set is one that sees pretty rapid dropoffs sometime in the early to mid 30's. (a couple links: Link1, link2) I believe we actually have seen some of this already. Take a look at his last 1.5 seasons of baseball - his power is still there, but his K rate shot up this year and the amount of weak contact he made also went up. If you convinced yourself you were getting an all star 3b this year, either you're name is Rick Hahn and you're severely overpaid or you were otherwise quite disappointed. These are what you see drop off in guys like him - in order to keep hitting the ball out of the park he has to put more into each swing, but that exposes him more to striking out, and eventually if the power tool weakens at all or his eye weakens at all, he can hit a cliff where his HR total drops off to the 20s and suddenly he's putting up Adam LaRoche numbers. He could darn well still have several good years in him, this is only speaking in terms of averages and there are always guys who break the trends, but an extension for Frazier is betting on him being a guy who breaks the trend. If you're going to make that bet, you better have a team in the first year or two of that deal that is otherwise loaded, because the back couple years could have a serious dropoff hidden in there. You make a good point here, but Frazier is also a pretty nice 3B and we don't have anybody on the radar who can play that position at the ML level. If the Sox give Frazier a four-year deal with a team option for a fifth year, and Frazier hits with power and plays a decent 3B for the first three of those years... I'd say that's not too bad. The key would be to give him the extension this winter, though, rather than waiting until he hits free agency the following year.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 08:23 PM) For sure. Other than the ones we know about, supposedly he has been sent home other times as well. Abbatacola also mentioned earlier that his source said Sale's part of the reason Robin didn't really want to continue. If that's the case, then I imagine that Hahn will be shopping him hard this winter.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 04:33 PM) I've heard from a very reliable source that Sale is not that great of a guy, in more ways than one. I had just assumed that he couldn't control his temper, but I'm not really surprised by that. A guy who cursed out his GM probably doesn't treat non-authority figures all that well, either.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:43 PM) Not with his agent but it may become common for pitchers to re-sign early to protect themselves in case of injury. That was my thinking. Many pitchers will take a guaranteed $50M over a possible $150M several years down the road. QUOTE (shipps @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:55 PM) I cant see Frazier going anywhere. I think the org (including Hawk) loves him so much that its more likely Frazier eventually gets a contract offer than getting traded. I tend to agree. Frazier would be a nice fit for this team for the next four or so years. If the Sox ever develop a halfway decent 3B again, Frazier can move to 1B.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:15 PM) I doubt they gave a s*** about their jerseys. He's clearly a bit of a hothead, but his performance on the field far outweighs a few temper tantrums. Hell just a few weeks ago Rodon said (I am paraphrasing)..the Sox would be complete idiots to trade away Chris. I have learned a ton from him and he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I obviously wouldn't expect one of his understudies to say he's a complete asshat and I hope he's traded, but I think the media took an easy story to run with and did just that. Chris is fine clubhouse guy that just wants to win. Yeah, Chris is a fine clubhouse guy until his sensibilities are offended, and then he throws a temper-tantrum and embarrasses the organization. If he weren't exceptionally good at what he does, he would've been shown the door earlier this year.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:06 PM) Who gives a s*** what the suits think? He's not a clubhouse cancer in the traditional sense if the guys in the clubhouse like him. Are you sure that everyone in the clubhouse likes him? Would you like him causing a media sh*tstorm for your team and destroying your jersey with scissors?

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:03 PM) I really, really, really don't think the Sox players view Chris as a clubhouse cancer. I'm sure that some of the players like him, but I'd guess that some probably don't and that the grownups in the organization (coaching staff, front office, etc.) didn't appreciate the crap that he pulled this year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 03:00 PM) That's the thing, if you trade Sale/Q, then you aren't winning for a few years and it doesn't matter if you have 5 James Shields in your rotation. The idea of rebuilding while trying to compete is simply foolish IMO Rodon isn't a free agent until 2022. If the Sox decide to rebuild this season, they should be competitive by 2019 or 2020.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 01:54 PM) Rodon should absolutely be a trade chip if you are unloading everyone No, he's one of the guys that you sign to an extension ASAP and build around.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 01:47 PM) See, we do agree on a couple things at least! Now getting Cespedes or Fowler may prove to be difficult. Indeed. Reddick is more likely, IMO, though they need to shoot higher than him if they're going for it in 2017.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 02:33 PM) Take it for what it's worth, Matt Abadacola on the Score says he has sources inside that say the preference is to move Sale over Quintana. If a team were to overpay obviously. That makes sense, especially since Sale is the power pitcher than many covet, he's something of a clubhouse cancer, and he's under team control for one season less than Q.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 02:16 PM) It wouldn't take that much to improve over Navaro. Personally, and I don't know who exactly is available, but I think a 2nd base improvement is the way to go. I'm not impressed with Lawrie and have decided that Saladino is a better utility guy. Yeah, Navarro had a hot bat for a short while early on, and then sucked. He's also horrible at pitch-framing. I don't understand the push to replace Lawrie. He's under team control for another year, he's cheap, he's decent defensively, and he's about 2 WAR. If the Sox could land a 3 WAR second baseman, then great, but I don't foresee that happening. It's also less critical when the Sox have a decent get-me-by player in Saladino and a solid utility guy in Sanchez. The best bets for improving offensive output are the corner OF and DH positions. Even a mediocre CF who can hit, such as Cespedes or Fowler, would be a huge improvement over what we had this year.

Harold was one of my favorite players back in the day, but I agree that his numbers don't merit a spot in Cooperstown.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 01:29 PM) No, I didn't miss your point. I just think that the wrong way to go about it is to move a competent right fielder to another position that he's not so good at. We need to get better as a team and as much of a problem as ops is, team defense matters too. I would rather exhaust more resources on finding a competent cf then moving what is currently a strength of this team. When the Sox were playing well this season they had Austin Jackson in cf and Eaton in right. I'm not about to argue that it was THE reason they played well, but a good part of it. I would not mind at all if Austin Jackson was the starting cf next year. I much prefer that providing we can improve ops elsewhere. Heck, just having Morneau as your dh and Anderson at ss for the full season helps along with finding a more competent catcher than Navaro. Good God, that's an awful argument. If you think that Austin Jackson's defense in CF will make him an asset to this team, despite the 85 OPS+ that he put up this season, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Dude was a -0.1 bWAR this year. It's also extremely difficult to get decent OPS out of a catcher. I think that re-signing Avila is about the best that the Sox can expect to do.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 01:24 PM) Just doing the math, Eaton in Right and Fowler in CF would give you more WAR than Eaton in center and Reddick in RF. The defensive value of Eaton in RF vs. CF is huge. Especially considering that Fowler was WAY better offensively than Reddick was this sesaon.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 12:21 PM) However, you can possibly gett a piece back currently on an MLB team since it's easier to replace someone in the offseason. That's true. If the Sox could get Jackie Bradley as part of a trade-and-sign deal that included 2-3 of Boston's best prospects, I'd be all for that. But I don't know if Dombrowski would.

QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 12:07 PM) My first option would be a rebuild. A second option far below that is doing absolytely nothing to the roster. Third would be attempting to trade/sign various players to try and compete. The problem is they can not appreciably add to theor roster this winter without (further) depleting the farm or overspending on a weak FA market As I see it, a rebuild is inevitable and I would not waste one cent trying to improve this team. They'll succeed or fail with what they have. I don't disagree that a rebuild is a compelling option, and I agree that it's inevitable. It's just a question of whether you do it now or later. From what I've heard coming out of the front office, JR doesn't seem ready to commit to one just yet. So, if he wants to open up his wallet and try one more time, I don't think that's a crazy idea. But his window of opportunity for doing that will shut after next season, so it's now or never. So if the Sox don't do their rebuild this winter, it'll probably begin in July.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 12:03 PM) I think Eaton is adequate in CF. It certainly makes sense to keep him in right but if you cannot get a legit CF you may have to move him back to improve the overall offensive balance of the outfield. For example, I don't think you pass on Reddick, if he is a target, because Eaton is in RF. Exactly

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 11:49 AM) Almost as hard as a gold glove caliber, good ops right fielder! You completely missed my point. The Sox have a more dire need for OPS than defense. It's A LOT easier to do that with a corner OF than another CF. So, as much as I like Eaton in RF, he's most likely going to have to move back to CF for the Sox to get better offensively.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Oct 3, 2016 -> 11:32 AM) Most definitely agree. I see posts that have Eaton moving back to center when acquiring another outfielder. That is just plain foolish. Adam Eaton is a gold glove caliber right fielder and a mediocre at best center fielder, you don't mess with that. The Sox need OPS more than a Gold Glove CF. And CF who put up a .780 OPS or higher are not easy to find on the FA market.