January 26, 20188 yr I used the mlb.com grades (although they tend to be a little to generous with 50 and 55 grades in my opinion) to translate the grades into future value in their prime. Using this article https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/ 1. Eloy Mlb grades 55 hit, 60 power, 60 fv Fg grades 50 hit, 55 power, 60 f2f 270 average, 35 hr, 3 WAR 2. Kopech Mlb 60 fv Fg 55 fv 3 WAR 3.Luis Robert Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 55 fv 260 average, 20 hr, 2.5 war (but that could go up) 4.Rutherford Mlb 55, 55, 55 Fg 60, 55, 55 280, 20 hr , 2.5 war (but might drop next year) 5. Cease Mlb 55 Fg 45 They are really split here, Fg has him as a future 1.5 war guy and mlb 2.5 war guy 6. Hansen Mlb 55 Fg 45 I go with the higher grade, Fg grade might not be adjusted yet to strong 2017 2.5 war guy 7. Collins Mlb 45 hit, 55 power, 50 fv Fg 40 hit, 60 power, 50 fv 240 with 25 hr and 2 WAR 8.dunning Mlb 50 Fg 45 2 war 9.fulmer Mlb, Fg 50 2 war player 10. Burger Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 50 fv 260, 25 hr, 2 war (I think 2 war is correct, but I expect more power and worse defense,more like 30 hr) Mlb also has 11-16 as future 2 war players ( Gillespie, burdi, Adams, Adolfo, sheets, Cordell) before it drops of to bench players. Personally I think that is a little too optimistic and Fg also sees it that way. But I also think that eloy should be bumped up to a 65 after last year (I,e future 4 win player). Keep in mind that the WAR are average during their prime (say 25-29 years old). A future 2.5 win player might also have one 4 win season in his prime (but also maybe a 1.5 win season). For comparison: 2 sox players last year had 4 war (avi, abreu), then they had 4 more guys in the 50fv (2 war) range (Sanchez, Quintana, Frazier, swarzak - although Quintana of course was a 4 win player for the whole year and Frazier was at 3 WAR, so they essentially where a 60 and a 65 ) and then they had 3 more in the 1.5 war range (45s) and the rest was one and under (40 fv). So you can see how much deeper they will get, last year it was essentially 65,65, 60, 50, 50, 45, 45, and then 40s In the future it will be 65, 60, 55, 55, 55, and then 50s in every spot and nothing worse than 45s on the bench.
January 26, 20188 yr You can't just take FVs at face value. A chunk of these guys will bust and/or disappoint.
January 26, 20188 yr QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 03:53 PM) I used the mlb.com grades (although they tend to be a little to generous with 50 and 55 grades in my opinion) to translate the grades into future value in their prime. Using this article https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/ 1. Eloy Mlb grades 55 hit, 60 power, 60 fv Fg grades 50 hit, 55 power, 60 f2f 270 average, 35 hr, 3 WAR 2. Kopech Mlb 60 fv Fg 55 fv 3 WAR 3.Luis Robert Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 55 fv 260 average, 20 hr, 2.5 war (but that could go up) 4.Rutherford Mlb 55, 55, 55 Fg 60, 55, 55 280, 20 hr , 2.5 war (but might drop next year) 5. Cease Mlb 55 Fg 45 They are really split here, Fg has him as a future 1.5 war guy and mlb 2.5 war guy 6. Hansen Mlb 55 Fg 45 I go with the higher grade, Fg grade might not be adjusted yet to strong 2017 2.5 war guy 7. Collins Mlb 45 hit, 55 power, 50 fv Fg 40 hit, 60 power, 50 fv 240 with 25 hr and 2 WAR 8.dunning Mlb 50 Fg 45 2 war 9.fulmer Mlb, Fg 50 2 war player 10. Burger Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 50 fv 260, 25 hr, 2 war (I think 2 war is correct, but I expect more power and worse defense,more like 30 hr) Mlb also has 11-16 as future 2 war players ( Gillespie, burdi, Adams, Adolfo, sheets, Cordell) before it drops of to bench players. Personally I think that is a little too optimistic and Fg also sees it that way. But I also think that eloy should be bumped up to a 65 after last year (I,e future 4 win player). Keep in mind that the WAR are average during their prime (say 25-29 years old). A future 2.5 win player might also have one 4 win season in his prime (but also maybe a 1.5 win season). For comparison: 2 sox players last year had 4 war (avi, abreu), then they had 4 more guys in the 50fv (2 war) range (Sanchez, Quintana, Frazier, swarzak - although Quintana of course was a 4 win player for the whole year and Frazier was at 3 WAR, so they essentially where a 60 and a 65 ) and then they had 3 more in the 1.5 war range (45s) and the rest was one and under (40 fv). So you can see how much deeper they will get, last year it was essentially 65,65, 60, 50, 50, 45, 45, and then 40s In the future it will be 65, 60, 55, 55, 55, and then 50s in every spot and nothing worse than 45s on the bench. I always feel like Fangraphs is more pessimistic on players than other systems. How are Cease and Hansen FV 45 prospects?
January 26, 20188 yr QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 04:02 PM) I always feel like Fangraphs is more pessimistic on players than other systems. How are Cease and Hansen FV 45 prospects? Eh, everyone is on the same scale though. IMO mlb pipeline has major grade inflation.
January 26, 20188 yr Author I think Fg was not updated yet and longenhagen is stingy with grades but mlb is also a little too generous with 50s. It think the truth is somewhere in between. Also I'm pretty sure eloy will be a 65 in the next lists.
January 26, 20188 yr Author QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 04:02 PM) You can't just take FVs at face value. A chunk of these guys will bust and/or disappoint. Sure, it is more an expected outcome. Could err either way.
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