If we look for Santana's change up, he will be unsuccessful.

I doubt it will be that easy. Johan is one hell of a pitcher and he will be able to adjust. I'm just hoping he is past his peak and on his way back down. We also have our ace going so it should be a great pitchers duel.

If we look for Santana's change up, he will be unsuccessful.

It's not that simple. His changeup looks so much like his fastball coming out of his hand it keeps the hitters off balance.

A hitter cannot go up there "looking for a change up". He has to be sitting dead red and adjust down. Geez .... Hawk's been preaching that for years. Don't you guys listen?

A hitter cannot go up there "looking for a change up".  He has to be sitting dead red and adjust down.  Geez .... Hawk's been preaching that for years.  Don't you guys listen? 

Shouldn't that have a green tint?

It's not that simple.  His changeup looks so much like his fastball coming out of his hand it keeps the hitters off balance.

As for professional hitters, when they sit on a certain pitch they adjust their timing. They don't physically look at the ball and guess what the pitch is when they see it traveling through the air.

 

If you sit on a changeup, you adjust your timing to swing a fraction later than you would fastball. So it doesn't matter what the ball looks like coming out of Santana's hand, they just have to follow it and swing based on their best estimate of the changeup's time of flight.

 

In other words, they know what they are swinging for before the pitch is thrown. There should be no guessing like your post implies.

 

Last outing, he was beating everyone on changeups low and away. I just think we can be successful if we look for it late in counts.

The Sox are gonna be pissed coming in to the series!

I've always wondered why more hitters haven't taken the simple but effective approach Moose Skowron used to use. He'd start his swing in case it was a fastball and if it was a change, he'd just hitch and restart.