Analysis of Dye's Signing

[DBAHO]

Thought this was an interesting read, as is most of their stuff from the site;

 

*** Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox | two years | $10.15 million ***

*** Richard Hidalgo | Texas Rangers | one year | $5 million ***

 

I'm lumping these two deals together because Jermaine Dye and Richard Hidalgo are very similar players. Beyond both being tall, strong-armed rightfielders, take a look at just how close they were in 2004:

                PA      AVG      OBP      SLG  2B  HR  BB      SO

Dye            590  .265  .329  .464  29  23  49  128

Hidalgo        578  .239  .301  .444  26  25  44  129

Those numbers are pretty close, particularly in power and strike zone judgment, although once you adjust for ballparks and leagues Dye clearly comes out on top. Hidalgo makes up for that with the fact that he hit .309/.385/.572 in 2003, while Dye struggled through a brutal season, hitting just .172/.261/.253 in 65 games. Or at least that should have made up for it, because clearly it hasn't. Despite being a year younger, a lot healthier, and significantly more productive over the past few years, Hidalgo has a one-year deal for $5 million, while Dye has two guaranteed years at similar money, plus a third option year.

 

Like the numbers Studes crunched, I think both of these contracts are decent ones, or at least decent risks. If I'm gambling on one of these guys, I'd go with Hidalgo every time, because he's younger, better defensively, and his last excellent season is closer in the rear-view mirror. Because of that, these deals continue this offseason's trend of teams seemingly handing out big contracts and small contracts randomly. Why is Dye worth two years and an option year, while Hidalgo is only worth a one-year risk? Why are Ortiz, Jaret Wright, Jon Lieber, and Kris Benson worth big, multi-year deals, while equally productive pitchers are settling for short-term deals?

 

Jermaine Dye signed a two-year deal with the White Sox for $5 million a year, with an option for 2007.

 

On the surface, Dye and Finley are similar. Dye is projected to create 74 runs next year, though he will make more outs than Finley. From what I've read, he is an average defender these days. Fair Market Value of $5 million. Fair deal for Dye and Ken Williams.

 

Dye is only 31, but he's a much higher injury risk than Finley (the Handbook rates him a High Risk, Finley is a Medium Risk). My guess is that there's less certainty in Dye's projection than Finley's. I have to admit that I didn't like this deal when I first read about it, but the Fair Market Value calculator seems to know better than I.

 

Richard Hidalgo signed a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers for $5 million.

 

Now, this deal shocked me. Hidalgo is a very risky signing -- he has more ups and downs than my stock portfolio -- and he batted .197 in the second half last year. But the James Handbook has him at 70 Runs Created next year (at Shea) in 438 at bats, and he truly is an excellent outfielder. Seems crazy to me, but that gives him a Fair Market Value of $7 million.

 

Still, Hidalgo is a high injury risk, and his Runs Created could come in anywhere between 40 and 90. This is probably a good deal for Texas -- a calculated risk.

[JoshPR]

Hmmm Last good season from DYE 2001

 

Last good season from Hidalgo 2000

 

Hidalgo hit .300 in 2003 and had 40 doubles but only drove home 88

 

Dye is only months older than Hidalgo.

 

Sometimes those analysis are dumb

[SoxFanForever]

Hmmm Last good season from DYE 2001

 

Last good season from Hidalgo 2000

 

Hidalgo hit .300 in 2003 and had 40 doubles but only drove home 88

 

Dye is only months older than Hidalgo.

 

Sometimes those analysis are dumb

I agree. For a guy who hit .239 last year they sure are rating Hidalgo pretty highly.